KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Thursday   10.03.13

 

The US government is working with limited staff until Congress approves an increase in the debt ceiling.  The dollar is trading at a new recent low and other macro markets are consolidating.  In addition, the USDA issued no Weekly Export Sales Report this morning and USDA online archives are not available.

Grain futures are trading higher this morning.  KWZ and MWZ are trading at new recent highs, and the beans and corn are bouncing off recent lows.  The domestic corn and bean basis levels are mixed, while the export basis is a tad firmer.  HRW and SRW cash markets remain firm, while the HRS cash market remains quite weak.

A major price realignment is taking place in the wheat market price structure due to larger than normal demand from Brazil and China.  Wheat has become priced as a more valuable food grain rather than a less valuable feed grain.  In addition, the class by class supply-demand balances have changed with HRW now with the tightest balance and HRS with the most abundant balance.

Weather issues-

  • Rain and storms are interrupting harvests in the US, Eastern Europe, Russia and the Ukraine.
  • Dry weather is hindering wheat filling in Argentina, and wet weather in southern Brazil is hindering wheat harvest.
  • Weather in Argentina is favorable for wheat filling.
  • Scattered rains in Mato Grosso are beneficial for bean planting, but more rain is needed.

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.42

$12.83

$415

$0.3971

$6.92

$7.58

$7.52

Change

+3

+10

+4

+0.0033

+6

+4

+6

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

+1.1%

+0.7%

  DEC 13(or X)

+0.7%

+0.8%

+0.9%

+0.8%

+0.8%

+0.5%

+0.7%

  JULY 14

+0.6%

+0.5%

+0.4%

+0.6%

+1.1%

-0.7%

+0.3%

DEC 14(or X)

+0.6%

+0.7%

+0.4%

+0.6%

-1.1%

+0.8%

na

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.1%

-0.0%

-1.1%

-0.7%

-1.9%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

Champaign ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-20 CZ

NA

-10 CZ

+6 CZ

+92 CZ

NA

 change

0

0

+10

+2

 

BEANS

+17 SX

NA

-12 SX

-12 SX

 change

+2

0

+7

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.30.13

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales – cancelled

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report –likely cancellation

 

Week of 10.07.13

Mon 10.07                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.08                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.09                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.10                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.11                    11:00 am       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

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