KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Monday   9.30.13

 

Grain futures prices are mixed as traders lighten up positions in front of the USDA release of their Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grain Summary Reports at 11 am this morning.  The Stocks report is expected to give better information on if there was more than expected wheat feeding – and less than expected corn feeding – in the late summer.  Wheat futures went from nearly even money to corn futures in the late spring to a two dollar plus premium at present as China and Brazil bought US wheat.  The question is how much wheat was committed to the feed market before wheat prices rallied and it became too expensive to feed.  Today’s report will impact usage numbers for wheat, and 2012-13 carryover numbers for corn when the USDA releases its October Supply/Demand Report at the end of next week.

Scattered showers are creating some harvesting delays, but there is still no damaging cold predicted at least through October 12.  Domestic truck basis levels continue to work irregularly lower, but still are historically high.  This morning’s Export Loading Report is expected to show wheat loadings continuing at a well above normal pace, while corn and bean loadings improve but are still well below the average needed to hit the USDA target for the year. With new crop corn and bean export sales at a much higher than normal level, exporters will need to be aggressive to buy pipeline supplies away from domestic markets which need to rebuild stocks.

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.56

$13.14

$418

$0.4158

$6.83

$7.33

$7.29

Change

+2

-6

-1

-0.0023

0

+1

-2

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

+0.0%

-0.4%

  DEC 13(or X)

+0.5%

-0.5%

-0.1%

-0.6%

-0.1%

+0.1%

-0.3%

  JULY 14

+0.4%

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.6%

-0.4%

+0.2%

DEC 14(or X)

+0.4%

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.4%

-0.5%

-0.1%

+0.3%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.2%

-0.1%

-1.0%

-1.5%

-0.1%

-1.3%

-0.4%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-20 CZ

+18 CZ

+5 CZ

+69 CZ

+90 CZ

+10 CZ

 change

0

0

0

-1

-20

0

 

BEANS

+15 SX

+10 SX

+0 SX

-15 SX

 change

0

+10

-15

-10

 

 

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13 US CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2012-13

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

0.688

0.552-0.765

0.661

0.989

1.128

BEANS

0.126

0.112-0.155

0.125

0.169

0.215

 

ESTIMATES FOR  012-13 US STOCKS (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2011-12

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept 1 Stocks

WHEAT

1.938

1.819-2.085

2.105

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2013 US WHEAT PRODUCTION

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

9.30.13

Average

Range

September

2012-13

11-12

ALL WHEAT

2.121

2.095-2.137

2.114

2.269

1.999

  HRW

0.792

0.782-0.805

0.791

1.004

0.780

  SRW

0.545

0.542-0.555

0.542

0.420

0.458

  WHITE

0.215

0.205-0.250

0.246

0.221

0.256

  OTHER SPRING

0.509

0.465-0.530

0.475

0.542

0.365

  DURUM

0.060

0.056-0.063

0.060

0.082

0.050

 

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.01                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.02                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 10.07.13

Mon 10.07                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.08                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.09                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.10                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.11                    11:00 am       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

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