KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Friday   9.27.13

 

Grain futures are continuing to consolidate with beans slightly higher while wheat is mixed, and corn slightly lower.  There is not a lot of market moving news this morning, but the USDA will release its Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains Summary Monday at 11 am. (see analysts estimates below).   The weather forecast for the US Midwest includes scattered showers this weekend, and no significant cold threats.  The USDA reported a 121 mmt wheat sale to Unknown this morning.  This may be a HRW sale to Brazil as HRW futures are continuing to invert in early trade.

Cash markets continue to trade above historical harvest time basis levels, but continue to irregularly decline.  Note the drop in Central Illinois and Iowa bean truck bean basis levels this morning.

It doesn’t appear that macro markets are impacting grain futures this morning, but it should be noted that Congress’ delay in approving additional funding for government operations is weakening the value of the Dollar, pressuring stock prices, and generally supporting commodity prices.

The afternoon wire will be late today – maybe tomorrow- as I will be getting a wisdom tooth removed –ironic?

–       Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.56

$13.22

$417

$0.4215

$6.78

$7.28

$7.25

Change

-1

+5

+2

+0.0010

-1

+1

0

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

+0.4%

+0.1%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.3%

+0.4%

+0.4%

+0.2%

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.1%

  JULY 14

-0.2%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.2%

-0.4%

-0.1%

+0.2%

DEC 14(or X)

-0.3%

-0.1%

-0.2%

+0.2%

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.2%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.4%

+0.2%

-0.4%

+0.2%

+0.4%

+1.0%

+0.5%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-20 CZ

+18 CZ

+5 CZ

+70 CZ

+110 CZ

+10 CZ

 change

+3

0

0

+1

0

-1

 

BEANS

+15 SX

+0 SX

+15 SX

-5 SX

 change

+5

0

-15

-26

 

 

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13 US CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2012-13

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

0.688

0.552-0.765

0.661

0.989

1.128

BEANS

0.126

0.112-0.155

0.125

0.169

0.215

 

ESTIMATES FOR  012-13 US STOCKS (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2011-12

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept 1 Stocks

WHEAT

1.938

1.819-2.085

2.105

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2013 US WHEAT PRODUCTION

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

9.30.13

Average

Range

September

2012-13

11-12

ALL WHEAT

2.121

2.095-2.137

2.114

2.269

1.999

  HRW

0.792

0.782-0.805

0.791

1.004

0.780

  SRW

0.545

0.542-0.555

0.542

0.420

0.458

  WHITE

0.215

0.205-0.250

0.246

0.221

0.256

  OTHER SPRING

0.509

0.465-0.530

0.475

0.542

0.365

  DURUM

0.060

0.056-0.063

0.060

0.082

0.050

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.23.13

Fri 9.27                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.01                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.02                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 10.07.13

Mon 10.07                 10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.08                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.09                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.10                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.11                    11:00 am       USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND REPORT

CROP PRODUCTION REPORT

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

This communication has been prepared by the trading, market making and/or the sales personnel (“Trader”) of Knight Capital Americas, LLC. (“KCA”), a subsidiary of KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”). The information contained herein may be the personal perspective of the KCG Trader and/or commentary compiled from public sources. The information from public sources is believed to be reliable but KCG does not guarantee or represent its accuracy or completeness. The opinions and views expressed by the individual trader do not represent the opinions and views of KCG, its affiliates, officers or other personnel. No responsibility and no express or limited liability is assumed jointly or individually for any losses or damages arising out of errors, omissions, delays in the receipt of the information, or any actions taken in reliance upon the information. The information contained herein does not provide investment advice and is not a sufficient basis for an investment decision. No information contained herein should be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security or product. Indications of interest, opinions or views expressed by the trader are not firm orders or quotes and may not be current. No responsibility is assumed to maintain and/or update the information. KCA most likely makes a market in the securities mentioned in this document and its personnel, including those involved in the preparation or issuance of the material may take a position or action which may be inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed therein. Questions regarding the information presented herein or to request a copy of this document should be referred to your KCG Representative.

KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) is comprised of trading and related entities under common control such as Knight Capital Americas, LLC, KCG Europe Limited (a U.K. registered broker-dealer) and KCG Hotspot FX LLC.

© 2013 KCG Holdings, Inc. (“KCG”) All rights reserved. Provided by Knight Capital Americas LLC, member of FINRA and SIPC. For additional information about KCG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: Euronext: KCG) please visit www.kcg.com.