KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Thursday   9.26.13

 

Grain futures are consolidating yesterday’s short covering bounce with wheat slightly higher while corn and beans are slightly lower.  Weekly US Export Sales were well above the totals needed to hit the yearly USDA estimate, but were within trade estimates.

Weather forecasters expect to see a pattern shift in about 10 days that will take overnight lows near freezing in a number of locations.  Forecasts are for patchy frost not yet a hard freeze.  Corn and bean harvesting should progress over the next 10 with minor rain interruptions.

Monday the USDA will release their Quarterly Stocks and Small Grain Summary.  Industry estimates are below.

Although futures trade is relatively quiet this morning traders are still talking about China’s domestic wheat prices at all time highs and the possibility that Brazil may buy more wheat.

–       Helen Pound

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.53

$13.16

$416

$0.4179

$6.73

$7.22

$7.21

Change

-2

-6

-1

-0.0030

+2

+3

+3

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

-0.2%

-0.8%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.7%

+0.3%

+0.5%

+0.4%

  JULY 14

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.1%

-0.7%

+0.2%

+0.6%

0.0%

DEC 14(or X)

-0.4%

-0.2%

+0.4%

-0.7%

-0.1%

+0.1%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.2%

-0.2%

+0.3%

+0.4%

+0.7%

-0.2%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-23 CZ

+18 CZ

+5 CZ

+69 CZ

+110 CZ

+11 CZ

 change

0

-2

0

-1

-10

-39

 

BEANS

+10 SX

+0 SX

+30 SX

+21 SX

 change

0

0

-5

-17

 

 

 

2013-2014 EXPORT SALES (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 Week ended 9.19.13

CORN

BEANS

WHEAT

 

WEEKLY SALES FOR 2013-13

25

104

23

Needed to hit USDA target

(14)

(11)

(13)

 

TOTAL SALES

546

944

650

USDA YEARLY SALES ESTIMATE

1225

1385

1100

 

PERCENT SOLD

42 %

58 %

55 %

5 year average percent sold

34 %

43 %

48 %

 

UNSOLD

679

441

450

UNSHIPPED

500

923

206

 

SHIPPED THIS WEEK

19

16

38

Needed to ship to hit USDA target

(24)

(27)

(19)

 

PERCENT SHIPPED

4 %

2 %

40 %

5 year average percent sold

6 %

2 %

32 %

 

 

US CARRYOVER/USE %

15 %

5 %

23 %

WORLD CARRYOVER/USE %

15 %

19 %

20 %

 

EXPORTS AS A PERCENT OF

US TOTAL USE

10 %

44 %

46 %

# weeks left in marketing year:  wheat = 36  corn and beans = 49

 

WHEAT SALES BY CLASS (in Millions of bushels – rounded)

 

HRW

HRS

DURUM

SRW

WHITE

WEEKLY SALES

7

6

0.0

4

5

(NEED TO HIT USDA)

(5)

(3)

(0.5)

(2)

(2)

 

TOTAL SALES

238

111

7

213

80

USDA ESTIMATE

405

235

25

285

150

 

PERCENT SOLD

59 %

47 %

28 %

73 %

53 %

 

UNSOLD

167

124

18

72

70

UNSHIPPED

56

45

3

69

33

 

CARRYOVER/USE %

21 %

35 %

26 %

18 %

19 %

 

EXPORTS AS A PERCENT OF USE

43 %

46 %

24 %

49 %

56 %

#   weeks left in the wheat marketing year: 36

 

MAJOR US EXPORT SALES PROGRAMS AND SHIPMENTS TO DATE

In metric tons

HRW

SRW

Corn

Corn

Beans

Brazil

China

China

Mexico

China

Shipped

2005

2380

178

440

295

Sold

2381

3587

3318

3772

17327

%Shipped

84%

66%

5%

12%

2%

Shipped This Week

114

239

119

190

295

 

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13 US CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2012-13

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

0.688

0.552-0.765

0.661

0.989

1.128

BEANS

0.126

0.112-0.155

0.125

0.169

0.215

 

ESTIMATES FOR  012-13 US STOCKS (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2011-12

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept 1 Stocks

WHEAT

1.938

1.819-2.085

2.105

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2013 US WHEAT PRODUCTION

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

9.30.13

Average

Range

September

2012-13

11-12

ALL WHEAT

2.121

2.095-2.137

2.114

2.269

1.999

  HRW

0.792

0.782-0.805

0.791

1.004

0.780

  SRW

0.545

0.542-0.555

0.542

0.420

0.458

  WHITE

0.215

0.205-0.250

0.246

0.221

0.256

  OTHER SPRING

0.509

0.465-0.530

0.475

0.542

0.365

  DURUM

0.060

0.056-0.063

0.060

0.082

0.050

 

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.23.13

Thur 9.26                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.27                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.01                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.02                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

 

 

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