KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Wednesday   9.25.13

 

Grain futures are trading somewhat higher this morning.  Wheat futures are contining their bounce off lows, beans are consolidating their break from early month highs, and corn is consolidating lows.

  • Wheat futures are responding to a freeze event in Argentina earlier in the week that is expected to have damaged heading wheat.  There is also the possibility of another freeze event this weekend.  Brazilian millers have been aggressively buying US HRW for several months as production and quality in Argentina has deteriorated.  In addition, Argentina has limited its wheat exports.
  • Argentina is expected to receive ½ to 2” of rain over the next 5-7 days, but this is probably too late to improve the wheat situation.  It will improve corn and bean planting conditions.
  • World wheat prices are low enough that Russia is expected to buy intervention supplies to support prices beginning in October
  • Temperatures in Mato Grosso are expected to remain hot through next week.  Weather in southern Brazil has been more beneficial for planting with more rain and less heat.
  • US weather is beneficial for harvesting over the next two weeks, as rain is limited.
  • The US is not expected to suffer from damaging cold temps over the next two weeks – with most areas now past the risk of yield loss. Over the next two weeks US low temperatures are expected to remain above freezing in most areas with some temps in the low 30s possible in Nebraska, Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Tomorrow the USDA will release its Weekly Export Sales Report and traders will be keen to see if large wheat and soybean sales continue.  Monday the USDA will release its Quarter Stocks and Small Grain Summary.  Traders are anxious to see how much wheat was feed in late summer.

-Helen Pound

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.51

$13.18

$415

$0.4210

$6.63

$7.11

$7.13

Change

+2

+5

+3

+0.0001

+5

+6

+8

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

+0.6%

+0.1%

  DEC 13(or X)

+0.5%

+0.4%

+0.8%

+0.1%

+0.7%

+0.9%

+1.1%

  JULY 14

+0.5%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.1%

+0.2%

+0.7%

DEC 14(or X)

+0.5%

+0.1%

+0.4%

+0.1%

+0.4%

+0.3%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

-0.1%

+0.1%

+0.3%

+0.3%

+0.3%

+0.1%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-23 CZ

+18 CZ

+5 CZ

+70 CZ

+120 CZ

+50 CZ

 change

0

-2

-5

-6

0

+40

 

BEANS

+10 SX

+0 SX

+35 SX

+38 SX

 change

0

+5

-5

-2

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.23.13

Wed 9.25                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.26                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.27                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.01                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.02                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

 

 

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