KCG FUTURES AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Friday   9.20.13

 

A slide in bean and meal prices closing the gap left after the late August weather rally, is pulling wheat and corn lower as well.  Additional US Midwest rainfall and no forecast for a yield damaging freeze through the first week of October are allowing the futures market to unwind risk premium by selling beans and buying corn or wheat.  The SX/CZ ratio has dropped to 2.90% after peaking at over 3.0% last week.  Relatively high bean prices are needed to ration tight US supplies and encourage South American bean planting – but the question is how high is high enough.

There are also a couple of more market friendly headlines this morning.

–       Indonesia has been a regular buyer of US beans.  This morning they announced that they were removing import taxes on beans.

–       Brazil and Argentina continue to need more rain for planting.

–       The US dollar continues to consolidate its recent price break.

 

Expect grain futures to work irregularly lower as harvest picks up pace.  Note that US bean supplies are exceedingly tight, while corn and bean supplies are more abundant.

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CZ

SX

SMZ

BOZ

WZ

KWZ

MWZ

Today’s Pause

$4.58

$13.28

$417

$0.4266

$6.53

$6.99

$7.06

Change

-1

-12

-3

-0.0030

-4

-3

-2

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  OCT

-0.5%

-0.7%

  DEC 13(or X)

-0.3%

-0.9%

-0.7%

-0.7%

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.3%

  JULY 14

-0.3%

-0.9%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.1%

DEC 14(or X)

-0.4%

-0.8%

-0.3%

-1.3%

-0.6%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

+0.1%

-0.1%

-0.1%

-0.4%

-0.7%

-1.3%

-3.0%

 

SPOT TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CHICAGO

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

-20 CZ

+20 CZ

+10 CZ

+66 CZ

+125 CZ

+51 CZ

 change

0

0

0

+16

0

+1

 

BEANS

+18 SX

+0 SX

+50 SX

+98 SX

 change

-2

0

0

-2

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

Week of 9.16.13

Fri 9.20                                               2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            LAST TRADING DAY OCTOBER OPTIONS

 

Week of 9.23.13

Mon 9.23                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 9.24                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 9.25                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 9.26                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 9.27                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

Week of 9.30.13

Mon 9.30                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

11:00 am       USDA QUARTERLY STOCKS AND

SMALL GRAIN SUMMARY

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 10.01                3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 10.02                 9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 10.03                 7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 10.04                    2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

 

 

 

 

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