KCG Futures AM Grain Comments

KCG FUTURES   AM GRAIN FUTURES COMMENTS   Monday   8.26.13

 

The grain futures market is trading significantly higher today  – with meal at new season highs and beans approaching season highs.  The weather over the weekend and forecasted for the next 5-7 days is hot and dry and quite stressful to bean and corn crops.

     Until early August, Funds had been reducing bean complex Long positions and adding to corn and wheat futures short positions. They were caught off guard by the bullish USDA August Supply-Demand report indicating less than expected US corn and bean production which was quickly followed by hotter, dryer weather last week with hotter weather expected for this week.  Now traders are racing with end users to cover short positions as the market prices in expectations for lower US bean and corn production amid extremely tight US bean carryover.

 

TRUCK BASIS BID

 

MEMPHIS

CENTRAL ILLINOIS

CEDAR RAPIDS, IA

HERFORD, TX

DENVER

CORN

+35 CU

+175 CU

+ 166 CU

+250 CU

+150 CU

BEANS

+60 SX

+160 SX

+108 SX

 

First Notice Day for September futures deliveries is Friday.  The rally in the futures market is helping to reduce September open interest.

Weather forecasts and actual rainfall events are the main market focus.

–       Helen Pound

 

 

GRAIN FUTURES 7:45 to 8:30 am PAUSE –rounded

 

CU

SU

SMU

BOU

WU

KWU

MWU

Today’s Pause

$5.09

$1.424

$455

$0.4398

$6.47

$7.05

$7.28

Change

+14

+59

+22

+0.0134

+13

+10

+11

 

OVERNIGHT PERCENT CHANGE IN FUTURES VALUES

Grains

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

% Daily Change

  SEPT 13

+2.7%

+4.3%

+5.0%

+3.1%

+2.0%

+1.4%

+1.6%

  DEC 13(or X)

+4.3%

+4.6%

+4.8%

+3.1%

+2.0%

+1.5%

+1.4%

  JULY 14

+3.7%

+3.6%

+3.6%

+2.9%

+1.5%

+1.9%

+1.0%

 

Macros

Dollar

10 Yr

S+P

Crude

Copper

Gold

Silver

% Daily Change

-0.1%

+0.2%

+0.1%

-0.2%

+0.5%

+0.1%

+1.8%

SEPTEMBER GRAIN FUTURES DELIVERIES – FIRST NOTICE DAY FRIDAY 8-30-13

 

Corn

Beans

Meal

Soy Oil

W

KC

Mpls

SEPT-DEC (X)

(19 1/4)

(34 1/4)

(14.9)

0.0042

11 3/4

(2 ¾)

7 1/2

% FULL CARRY

(94%)

(197%)

(151%)

62%

57%

(8%)

27%

 

 

Registrations

7

0

0

8,975

256

Location

Ill River

All over

Toledo

 

 

Sept Open Interest

136,391

25,533

24,335

25,197

46,464

16,471

10,252*

   Change

-12,958

+813

-4,739

-1,895

-11,574

-3,136

-631

  • Not yet updated

 

COT CHANGES IN SWAP DEALER AND MANAGED MONEY FUTURES + OPTION OPEN INTEREST

With changes in Futures + Option positions to 8.20.13 from 8.13.13 –   in number of net contracts

 

  • Swap Dealers added to corn and bean oil Longs, while liquidating wheat, bean and bean meal Longs
  • Managed Money were buyers of  corn, the bean complex and wheat
  • Managed Money continues to be net Short corn and wheat, while they are increasingly Longer the bean complex

 

 

Swap Dealers

Managed Money

   

Swap Dealers

Managed Money

 

   

ChiWht

+103,410

-42,941

  Beans

+74,471

+99,988

 

-2,599

+1,055

   

-309

+52,811

 

   

 

   

KC Wht

+37,406

+13,029

  Bean Oil

+72,246

-35,004

 

+823

+1,816

   

+2,402

+13,267

 

   

 

   

M Wht

+2,852

-3992

  Meal

+50,042

+44583

 

+145

+370

   

-2,014

+18,788

 

   

 

   

Corn

+278,296

-91,778

  Oats

+1,206

-144

 

+16,737

+31,443

   

+149

0

  • Swap dealers tend to hold positions for the long term.  Position changes tend to reflect “investors” adjusting their exposure to this asset class.
  • Managed money will trade actively from either the long or short side of the market

 

 

 

 

UPCOMING REPORTS

 

Week of 8.26.13

Mon 8.26                   10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Tues 8.27                  3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Wed 8.28                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Thur 8.29                   7:30 am          Export Sales

Fri 8.30                       2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report

                                                            FIRST NOTICE DAY – SEPT GRAIN FUTURES

 

Week of 9.02.13

Mon 9.02                                           LABOR DAY HOLIDAY

Tues 9.03                  10:00 am       Export Inspections

3:00 pm          Weekly Crop Progress Report

Wed 9.04                   3:30 pm          API Energy Stocks

Futures Delivery Stocks

Thur 9.05                   9:30 am          EIA Energy Stocks

Fri 9.06                       7:30 am          Export Sales

2:00 pm          Commitment of Traders report     

 

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