KCG Comments on the USDA Quarterly Stocks and Small Grain Summary

The USDA reports issued today were friendly for wheat, and negative for corn and beans.

STOCKS

Quite a bit more corn and bean stocks than anticipated

Corn stocks were above the high end of the range of analysts’ estimates

Bean stocks were closer to the high end of the range of analysts’ estimates

Quite a bit fewer wheat stocks 

Wheat stocks were closer to the low end of the range of analysts’ estimates 

HRW states showed significantly less Sept 1 stocks than last year.

WHEAT PRODUCTION

All wheat production was up just 6 million bushels from the average guess

HRW production was quite a bit less than anticipated

SRW, HRS and white wheat production was quite a bit more than anticipated

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2012-13 US CARRYOUT (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2012-13

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept

2011-12

2010-11

CORN

0.824

0.688

0.552-0.765

0.661

0.989

1.128

BEANS

0.141

0.126

0.112-0.155

0.125

0.169

0.215

 

ESTIMATES FOR  012-13 US STOCKS (billion bushels)

 

2012-13

2012-13

2011-12

 

Sept 1 Stocks

Average

Range

Sept 1 Stocks

WHEAT

1.855

1.938

1.819-2.085

2.105

 

ESTIMATES FOR 2013 US WHEAT PRODUCTION

 

2013-14

2013-14

2013-14

 

9.30.13

Average

Range

September

2012-13

11-12

ALL WHEAT

2.127

2.121

2.095-2.137

2.114

2.266

1.999

  HRW

0.744

0.792

0.782-0.805

0.791

1.000

0.780

  SRW

0.565

0.545

0.542-0.555

0.542

0.420

0.458

  WHITE

0.225

0.215

0.205-0.250

0.246

0.221

0.256

  OTHER SPRING

0.532

0.509

0.465-0.530

0.475

0.542

0.365

  DURUM

0.062

0.060

0.056-0.063

0.060

0.083

0.050