From The Grain Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Iraq bought 200K tons of wheat . 150K tons from Australia and 50K from Canada wheat
  • Jordan bought 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Jan shipment
  • Hearing Linn Group estimated 2013 US corn crop at 14.074 BB and 2013 corn yield at 157.9 BPA (this estimate is based off of what Linn Group thinks the final 2013 US output will be not what USDA will estimate on Monday)
  • Hearing Linn Group estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.226 BB and 2013 US bean yield at 42.6 BPA (this estimate is based off of what Linn Group thinks the final 2013 US output will be not what USDA will estimate on Monday)
  • Hearing Linn Group estimated 2013 US total wheat crop at 2.025 BB, including total winter wheat at 1.51 BB, HRW wheat at 770 MB, SRW wheat at 535MB , and western white wheat at 205 MB
  • Goldman Sachs estimates
    • 2013 CBOT corn price forecasted at $4.25 vs. previous forecast of $4.75
    • 2013 CBOT bean price forecasted at $10.50 vs. previous forecast of $11.00
    • Estimated 2013 US corn yield at 161.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 156.0 BPA
    • Estimated 2013 US bean yield at 43.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Based on a Reuters poll
    • Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan total ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 87.0 MMT up 36% from ‘12/13 and vs. previous estimate of 89.0 MMT
    • Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan total ‘13/14 wheat exports estimated at 30.0 MMT up 22% from ‘12/13 and vs. previous estimate of 32.0 MMT
    • Ukraine and Russia has exported 2.0 MMT of wheat since the beginning of the season (season started July 1st)
    • Russia has harvested 31.0 MMT of wheat so far 40% of total wheat crop
    • Ukraine has harvested 21.0 MMT of wheat so far 90% of total wheat crop
    • Kazakhstan will begin harvesting wheat this month
  • China has approved its first shipment of Argentine GMO corn
  • Lanworth Midwest crop tour – today was the second day. They surveyed fields in west central Iowa . Average corn yield was 207.0 BPA. Range of corn yields were 167.0-232.0 BPA . 5 year average is 169.8 BPA
  • Forgot to add in this morning’s email – there were 183 bean oil deliveries last night with the date at 8/01/13. No bean and no meal deliveries.
  • Agroconsult said Brazil has sold 35% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 50% a year ago
  • Standard Chartered Bank 2013 CBOT price forecast
    • 3rd quarter corn price forecasted at $5.15 , 4th quarter corn price forecasted at $4.75. 2013 average corn price forecasted at $5.91 vs. previous forecast of $6.63
    • 3rd quarter soybean price forecasted at $13.00, 4th quarter soybean price forecasted at $12.50. 2013 average soybean price forecasted at $13.68 vs. previous forecast of $14.39
    • 3rd quarter wheat price forecasted at $6.60, 4th quarter wheat price forecasted at $6.80. 2013 average wheat price forecasted at $6.93 vs. previous forecast of $7.24
  • APK Inform estimated ‘13/14 Russian wheat crop at 52.1 MMT up 38% from a year ago
  • Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for Aug/Sept shipment
  • Tunisia seeks 75K tons of optional origin feed barley for Sept/Oct shipment
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 500K
    • Gas a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates unchanged
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long Sept position into Dec in corn and wheat.
  • Open outcry option players
    • New Edge bought 2,000 Nov bean 1200/1240 call spreads at 12 ¾ -13 ¼
    • New Edge bought 2,500 Sept bean 1200/1100 put spreads and bought 2,500 Sept bean 1100/1200 call spreads at 100 debit
    • New Edge sold 2,000 Sept bean 1200/1180 put spreads at 8-8 ¼
    • New Edge bought 2,000 Sept short dated soybean 1250 calls at 2 7/8-3 and sold 180 Nov futures at 1170
    • ABN sold 1,000 Nov bean 1200/1100 put spreads at 44
    • Jefferies sold 2,000 Sept corn 500/520 call spreads at 1 5/8 and bought 220 Sept futures at 471
    • ICap sold 1,000 Dec corn 500c/400p strangles at 16
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec corn 460 calls at 24 ½ and sold 1,000 Dec corn futures at 460
    • RJO sold 1,000 Dec corn 450 puts at 19-19 ¼
    • RJO sold 3,000 Dec corn 520 calls at 7 ¼ and bought 540 Dec futures at 458
    • Tenco bought 500 Sept wheat 660 calls at 8 and sold 190 Sept futures at 649
    • Rosenthal bought 500 Dec meal 340 puts at 15.00
    • Bunge bought 800 Sept meal 380 calls at 8.00-8.25
    • ABN bought 1,200 Sept meal 400/370 put spreads at 19-21
    • Mizuho sold 500 Dec bean oil 45 calls at 45-46
    • Rosenthal bought 3,000 Jan bean oil 45 calls sold 3,000 Dec bean oil 45 calls at 30 debit

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans sold 3K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM Straddles

 

Corn

U vol 26 ½ 470 str 22-23

V vol 25 ¼ 460 str 32-33 ½

X vol 24 ¾ 460 str 42-43 ½

Z vol 24 ½ 460 str 48 ½-49 ½

H vol 24 470 str 66-67 ½

K vol 23 ½ 480 str 75-77

Z vol 21 490 str 92-94

 

Beans

U vol 22 1190 str 45 ½-47 ½

V vol 20 ¾ 1160 str 67-69

X vol 19 ¾ 1160 str 85-87

F vol 19 1180 str 110-116

H vol 19 1180 str 130-135

K vol 19 1180 str 151-157

N vol 18 ¼ 1180 str 156-163

 

Wheat

U vol 21 650 str 23-25

V vol 20 ¼ 660 str 37-39

Z vol 21 ¼ 660 str 59-60

H vol 21 ¾ 670 str 85-86

K vol 22 ¼ 680 str 101-103

N vol 23 680 str 114-117

 

KC Wheat

U vol 21 ½ 700 str 25-27

V vol 21 710 str 40-43

Z vol 21 710 str 63-66

H vol 21 ¼ 720 str 87-92

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 17 ¼ 740 str 20-25

Z vol 18 750 str 54-60

H vol 19 ¼ 760 str 76-85

 

Meal

U vol 30.25 380 str 20-22

V vol 26.25 350 str 28-30

Z vol 25 350 str 37-39

F vol 23.5 350 str 40.5-43.5

H vol 22.5 360 str 45-49

K vol 21.25 360 str 49-53

 

Bean oil

U vol 16.5 42.5 str 115-125

V vol 16.25 42.5 str 180-205

Z vol 16 42.5 str 280-295

F vol 15.75 43 str 320-350

H vol 15.75 43 str 375-405

K vol 15.75 43.5 str 430-460

 

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN               CLOSE

AUG      25-35                10-20

SEP         95-98               87-88.5

OCT        68-70               66-67

DEC        63.5-64.5        62-62.5

JAN        6.5-63.5           61-62

MCH      64-65.5            63.5-64.5

MAY       65-67               64.5-65.5

JLY           66-68               65.5-66.5

 

Crush players

 

ABN sold 80 Sept at 90

 

ABN sold 80 Oct at 67

 

ABN sold 80 Dec at 62.5

 

ABN bought 100 Jan 62.5

 

ABN sold 100 May at 66

 

Cunningham bought 40 Dec at 62.5

 

Cunningham sold 40 March at 64

 

FI bought 200 Dec at 62.5

 

Tenco sold 150 Nov Sept Sept at 1.20

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg