From The Grain Floor

A politician is an animal which can sit on a fence and yet keep both ears to the ground.

Henry Louis Mencken

 

May futures expire today at noon CDT

Open interest in May futures from yesterday’s close

  • CK 668 open, down 1,186
  • SK 1,357 open, down 1,435
  • SMK 335 open, down 649
  • BOK 174 open, down 169
  • WK 83 open, up 34
  • RRK 58 open, up 56

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 1 at 1418 ¼
  • CN down 3 ¼ at 652 ¼
  • WN up 1 ¾ at 711 ¾
  • SMN down .80 at 414.30
  • BON down 11 at 4950
  • RRN up 12.5 at 1555.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 11,786
  • CN 9,038
  • WN 3,352
  • SMN 4,530
  • BON 7,061
  • RRN 71

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady to 2 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat steady to 2 higher
  • Meal mixed
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 10-15 higher

 

Crude lower. Dollar higher.

 

Nikkei down .161%

Hang Seng down .259%

Shanghai Index down 1.109%

 

China beans meal and palm oil lower. China corn and bean oil higher

 

Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese Crush Breakdown

  • For the week May 4th – 10th total crush volume at 1,066,700 tons up 6.10% from a week ago
  • For the week May 4th – 10th total crush capacity utilization at 41.76% vs. 39.36% a week ago
  • Total crush volume between Oct 2012- May 10 2013 at 35,450,300 tons down .86% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1st 2013- May 10 2013 is 19,887,720 tons up 1.22% from a year ago
  • As of May 3rd imported soybean stocks were at 4.1799 MMT up 66,600 tons from a week ago and vs. 5.4705 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.674 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at a record 7.1-7.2 MMT due to Brazil port condition improving
  • Estimated July bean imports at 6.5 MMT
  • Estimated August bean imports at 5.0 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s May  bean imports at 5.59 MMT vs. 3.98 MMT in April and vs. 5.28 MMT in May 2012

 

CNGOIC 2013 Chinese crop estimates

  • Bean planting area estimated at 6.50 MH down 3.7% from a year ago
  • Bean crop estimated at 12.3 MMT down 3.9% from a year ago
  • Corn planted area estimated at 35.6 MH up 1.86% from a year ago
  • Corn crop estimated at 214.0 MMT up 2.82% from a year ago
  • Average corn yield estimated at 6.011 TPH up .94% from a year ago
  • Wheat crop estimated at 121.9 MMT up 1.09% from a year ago
  • Wheat planted area estimated at 24.1 MH down .42% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed planted area estimated at 7.4 MH up 1.37% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed crop estimated at 14.1 MMT up .71% from a year ago
  • Rice crop estimated at 206.7 MMT up 1.18% from a year ago
  • Rice area estimated at 30.5 MH up .60% from a year gao

 

Oil World said Indonesia palm oil stocks are falling due to improved exports through February

 

Dr. Cordonnier said Brazil beans take 52 days to get to China vs. 16 days for US beans

 

Rosario Grains Exchange Argentine Crop Estimates

  • Bean harvest about 70% complete
  • Estimated ‘12/13 bean crop at 48.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 48.0 MMT
  • Estimated ‘12/13 bean planted area at 19.5 MH

 

South Korea KFA bought 53K optional origin feed wheat for August shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 60K optional origin corn for September shipment

 

South Korea has bought about 500K tons of wheat and corn over the past week

 

Japan seeks 147,620 tons of wheat for June –Aug shipment Breakdown

  • 24,556 tons of western white US
  • 29,200 dark northern spring US
  • 30,966 HRW wheat US
  • 34,632 tons of western red spring Canada
  • 28,266 tons of Australian white

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India

  • April edible oil imports at 641,327 tons down 28.5% from a year ago
  • May 1st edible oil stocks at 1.82 MMT vs. 1.55 MMT a year ago and down 14% from a month ago
  • Nov – April edible oil imports at 5.14 MMT up 12% a year ago
  • Nov – April palm oil imports down 44% a year ago
  • Nov – April sunflower oil imports down 32% from a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min said as of yesterday spring grain plantings are 41.3% complete unchanged from a year ago

 

Rain in forecast for Australia

 

Rains in forecast next week for Russia and the Ukraine

 

Midwest dry today and tomorrow. Rains in forecast for the weekend and into next week

 

48 wheat receipts canceled by the Andersons

 

36 bean oil receipts canceled by Cargill Ackley IA

 

Deliveries

  • Wheat 82 with the date current
  • Rice 58 with the date current
  • Bean oil with the date at 5/02/13
    • Term house issued 38
    • ADM house stopped 52

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CN 447,199 open, up 461
  • Total corn 1,148,730 open, up 4,947.
  • SN 290,366 open, down 4,799
  • Total beans 551,646 open, down 3,635
  • SMN 137,645 open, up 1,469
  • Total meal 256,148 open, up 2,924
  • BON 182,285 open, down 2,063
  • Total bean oil 344,572 open, down 383
  • WN 219,524 open, down 3,663
  • Total wheat 403,485 open, down 3,769
  • Yesterday GFI bought 4,000 July bean 1500 calls at 9-11. Open interest this morning is 11,314 open, up 2,890. My broker believed this was a closing position.

 

Weekly US Crop Progress Report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planted 28% vs. 12% a week ago and vs. 65% 5 year average (market was expecting 20-30% complete
    • IL 17% vs. 7% a week ago vs. 94% a year ago and vs. 64% average
    • IN 30% vs. 8% a week ago vs. 92% a year ago and vs. 54% average
    • IA 15% vs. 8% a week ago vs. 86% a year ago and vs. 79% average
    • KA 31% vs. 17% a week ago vs. 88% a year ago and vs. 73% average
    • NE 43% vs. 14% a week ago vs. 89% a year ago and vs. 77% average
  • Emerged 5% vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 28% 5 year average

 

Beans

  • Planted 6% vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 24% 5 year average (market was expecting 5-10% complete)
    • IL 0% vs. 14% a year ago and vs. 19% average
    • IN 6% vs. 0% a week ago vs. 65% a year ago and vs. 26% average
    • IA 1% vs. 0% a week ago  vs. 34% a year ago and vs. 30% average
    • NE 7% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 56% a year ago and vs. 33% average
    • OH 16% vs. 1% a week ago vs. 44% a year ago and vs. 24% average

 

Spring wheat

  • Planted 43% vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 63% 5 year average
  • Emerged 10% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 32% 5 year average

 

Winter Wheat

  • Condition 32% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 60% a year ago (market was expecting steady to 1% lower)
  • Condition 39% poor to very poor unchanged from a week ago and vs. 14% a year ago
    • TX 9% good to excellent up 2% from a week ago. 73% poor to very poor down 1% from a week ago
    • KA 28% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago . 41% poor to very poor up 1% from a week ago
    • OK 21% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago. 47% poor to very poor up 2% from a week ago
  • Headed 29% vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 51% 5 year average

 

Rice

  • Planted 69% complete vs. 55% a week ago and vs. 74% 5 year average
  • Emerged 49% vs. 36% a week ago and vs. 57% 5 year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 23% vs. 17% a week ago and vs. 38% 5 year average

 

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Eurozone GDP comes out tomorrow
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services comes out tomorrow with their Malaysian 1-15th palm oil export estimates expecting 599K tons down 7.5% from a month ago
  • US PPI comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 450K
    • Gas a draw of 1.1 MB
    • Distillates at build of 425K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • NOPA April crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT . Based on a Bloomberg survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate 125.607 MB , range of estimates are 124.0-131.0 . In March the crush was 137.080 MB and in April 2012 the crush was 131.708 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 2.618 B pounds, range of estimates are 1.50-2.70 B . In March the bean oil stocks were 2.765 B and in April 2012 the bean oil stocks were 2.385 B
    • No estimates are given for meal exports , but in March meal exports were 638,327 tons
  • ECB president speaks on Thursday
  • US CPI on Friday at 730 am
  • OPEC meets May 31st in Vienna
  • Argentina will raise biodiesel blend rate to 10% from 7% on June 1st

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg