From The Floor-An Afternoon Review

News

  • Safras e Mercado weekly report
    • Brazil has sold 78% of their ‘12/13 bean crop vs. 92% a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 77%
    • Brazil has sold 10% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 33% a year ago and vs. 5 year average of 10%
    • Estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 85.0 MMT
    • Said Brazil has harvested 5% of their 2nd corn crop vs. 3% a year ago
  • Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CDT at
    • Wheat 26.42 MB expecting 14-20 MB
    • Corn 14.818 MB expecting 4-9 MB
    • Beans 4.518 MB expecting 2-7 MB
  • Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 22.8 MMT of grain between July 2012-June 2013 up 4.6% from a year ago . Including 6.84 MMT of wheat (5.17 MMT year ago ), 13.53 MMT of corn (13.86 MMT a year ago ), 2.12 MMT of barley (2.58 MMT a year ago )
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at 53-54 MMT vs. 46.2 in 2012
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 946 MMT vs. previous estimate of 945 MMT and vs. 854 MMT in ‘12/13
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 corn ending stocks at 149.0 MMT (13 year high) up 25% from ‘12/13 estimate
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 683 MMT vs. previous estimate of 682 MMT and vs. 655.0 MMT in ‘12/13
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 US corn crop at 355.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 273.8 MMT in ‘12/13
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 Ukraine corn crop at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.6 MMT and vs. 20.9 in ‘12/13
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 China wheat imports at 3.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.0 MMT and vs. 3.2 MMT a year ago
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 China wheat crop at 118.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 120.6 MMT a year ago
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 Egypt wheat crop at 9.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT and vs. 8.5 MMT a year ago
  • IGC estimated ‘13/14 Egypt wheat imports at 9.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.2 MMT and vs. 8.8 MMT a year ago
  • Brazilian truckers strike continues . Strike ends on Thursday at 6 am local time
  • November beans closed well below the 50 day moving average of 1255 ½ and well below the 100 day moving average of 1256 ½ . Nov beans settled at 1243 ¼

 

Open outcry option players

 

Corn:

Rand bot 4000 U 500 puts/sold 4000 Z 420 puts

ADM bot 2500 Z 590-640 call spreads

ADM bot 1000 Z 640 calls/bot 2000 Z 400 puts/sold 1000 Z 500 puts/sold 640 CZ

ADM sold 1000 Z 510 straddles

ADM sold 1000 Z 450 puts/550 call strangles

Bache sold 2000 Z 500 puts

JPM bot 1200 Q 620 calls

ABN bot 1000 U 550 puts

Rosenthal bot 2000 Z 520 straddles

Macquarie bot 1000 U 620 calls/sold 1000 U 530 puts/sold 540 CU

Macquarie bot 750 U 600 calls/sold 750 U 540 puts

 

Beans:

Vision bot 4500 X 1300-1400 call spreads – my broker believes they were rolling their long 1400 calls to 1300 calls

ADM bot 1000 Q 1400 calls

ICAP sold 800 X 1320 calls

ADM sold 500 X 1100-1000 put spreads

Newedge bot 1000 X 1000 puts/sold 500 X 1100 puts

FI sold 700 X 1100 puts

JPM sold 400 U 1300 puts

 

Wheat:

JPM bot 1000 Z 680 calls/sold 2000 Z 820 calls

Newedge bot 700 Z 640 straddles

Newedge bot 500 U 810 calls

 

Oil:

Bunge sold 1000 Q 46 ½ puts

Bunge sold 500 Q 46 puts

 

Meal:

Tenco bot 750 Z 360 puts/sold 750 SX 1200 puts

ADM sold 300 Z 400 puts

ADM sold 300 Z 360 puts

FCS bot 250 Q 400 calls

JPM bot 200 Q 420 puts/sold 200 U 390 puts

Bache sold 200 V 380 puts

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn sold 9K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 28 530 str 31-32 ½

U vol 28 ½ 530 str 45 ½-47

V vol 28 500 str 52-54

Z vol 27 ¾ 500 str 69-70 ¼

H vol 27 510 str 87-89

 

Beans

Q vol 19 ¾ 1440 str 59-61

U vol 20 ¾ 1300 str 82-84

V vol 20 ¾ 1240 str 96-98

X vol 20 ½ 1240 str 114-116

F vol 19 ½ 1240 str 133 ½-136 ½

H vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 148 ½-152 ½

K vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 163-168

N vol 17 ¾ 1260 str 171-177

X 14 vol 16 ¾ 1220 str 179-187

 

Wheat

Q vol 24 660 str 33-34

U vol 24 ½ 660 str 48-50

Z vol 24 ¾ 670 str 82-85

H vol 24 ½ 680 str 106-108

K vol 23 ½ 690 str 114-119

N vol 23 700 str 123-130

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 19 ½ 770 str 44-50

Z vol 20 ¾ 780 str 76-84

H vol 20 ½ 790 str 95-105

 

No KC wheat info today

 

Meal

Q vol 27.25 430 str 24.5-26

U vol 27.5 400 str 33-35

V vol 26.25 370 str 36-38

Z vol 25.75 370 str 46.5-48.5

F vol 24 370 str 48-50

H vol 22.25 370 str 51-54

 

Bean oil

Q vol 17.25 47 str 160-170

U vol 17.5 46.5 str 230-255

V vol 17.25 46 str 280-305

Z vol 17.25 45.5 str 375-400

F vol 17 45.5 str 410-430

H vol 17 45.5 str 460-500

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

JLY         10-20               5-15

AUG      31-34              28-32

SEP        82.5-83.5       81.5-83

OCT       75.5-77           72.5-75

DEC        66-66.5           64-64.5

JAN        61.5-62.5       60.5-63.5

MCH      63-65.5           61.5-64.5

MAY       62-66              62-65.5

 

Crush Players

 

RJO bought 20 Dec at 65.5

 

RJO sold 20 Sept at 83

 

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg