From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Weekly US export inspection report came out today at 10 am CST
    • Wheat at 12.228 MB expecting 6-12 MB
    • Corn at 16.701 MB expecting 28-32 MB
    • Beans at 79.697 MB expecting 75-85 MB
  • Oil World estimates
    • ‘13/14 global bean crop at 285.3 – 286.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 281.3 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 283.5 MMT (record)
    • ‘13/14 Argentine bean area estimated at 20.5 MH up 4.6% from a year ago
    • ‘13/14 Paraguay bean crop at 9.3 MMT (record) up 4.6% from a year ago
      • Other analysts estimated Paraguay’s bean crop at 9.6+ MMT
    • ‘13/14 China bean imports at 69.0 MMT vs. 60.0 MMT a year ago
    • Said China has bought a record 21.1 MMT of US beans between Jan 1st – Oct 31st vs. 16.0 MMT a year ago
    • Argentina Oct – Dec biodiesel exports at 450,000 tons vs. 221,000 tons a year ago
    • Estimated Argentina’s 4th quarter biodiesel production at 670,000 tons up 57% from a year ago
    • Estimated total 2013 Argentine biodiesel exports at 1.224 MMT vs. 1.558 MMT a year ago
    • Said Argentine government may raise biodiesel mandate
    • Said Indonesia exported 118,000 tons of biodiesel in August down 22% from a year ago
    • Said Indonesia exported 1.04 MMT of biodiesel between Jan – Aug (record) up 12% from a year ago
  • Cordonnier’s weekly crop estimates
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
      • Said about 60% of Brazilian bean crop has been planted
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop estimated at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
      • Said about 12% of Argentina’s bean crop has been planted
    • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
      • Said about 40% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted vs. 45% a year ago
  • Brazilian trade data showed Brazil exported 20.8 MMT of corn between Jan – Nov 10th vs. total 2012 corn exports of 19.77 MMT
  • Libya seeks 50K optional origin milling wheat for Dec/Feb shipment
  • UFOP (German oilseed industry association) estimated 2014 German winter rapeseed area at 1.4 MH down 4% from a year ago
  • UFOP said it was too early to estimate German’s ’14 rapeseed crop , but 2013 rapeseed crop was 5.8 MMT
  • Russia’s customs data showed Russia exported 8.7 MMT of wheat between Jan – September vs. 12.7 MMT a year ago
  • UK customs data showed UK imported 245,222 tons of wheat in September vs. 255,227 in August
  • UK customs data showed UK imported 828,959 tons of wheat between July – Sept vs. 590,076 tons a year ago
  • Today was the fourth day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends tomorrow.
  • Market expects EPA announcement on 2014 RFS requirements this week
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST expecting
    • Bean harvest 91-95% complete – Reuters survey of 10 analysts average estimate is 94% complete
    • Corn harvest 80-87% complete – Reuters survey of 10 analysts average estimate is 84% complete
    • Winter wheat condition steady to up 1% from a week ago
  • Jan bean oil will be top step (spot month) tomorrow
  • March wheat will be top step (spot month) tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Open outcry option players
    • FI bought 1,000 March bean 1200 puts at 17
    • ADM sold 1,000 Jan bean 1280/1360 call spreads bought 1,000 Jan bean 1260 puts at 23-25 credit
    • Rand bought 1,000 Jan bean 1300 puts at 22 ½ and bought 400 Jan futures at 1313
    • FI bought 1,200 Dec corn 440 calls at 4 ¼ and sold 480 Dec corn futures at 436
    • Macquarie bought 1,000 Sept corn 540 calls at 14 5/8 – 14 ¾ and sold 260 Sept futures at 468
    • ADM bought 2,000 Dec corn 430 calls at 5
    • Tenco bought 1,500 Jan corn 420 puts sold 1,500 Dec corn 420 puts at 2 – 2 1/8 debit
    • GFI sold 2,000 Dec corn 420 puts at 1 ½ and bought 320 Dec futures at 435
    • Rand bought 2,000 Jan corn 430/420 put spreads at 2 5/8
    • Rand  bought 700 May wheat 650/600 put spreads at 17 ½
    • ABN bought 500 March wheat 680 calls and sold 500 May wheat 730 calls at 3 3/8 debit
    • New Edge bought 300 March KC wheat 700 puts sold 300 KC March 680 puts and sold 300 March KC 700 calls at 1
    • Rosenthal sold 1,400 July meal 360 puts at 9.50-10.00
    • Rosenthal bought 1,400 Dec 2014 meal 300 puts and sold 1,400 July meal 360 puts at 2.00-2.25 credit
    • Tenco bought 1,000 July meal 440 calls at 7.50 and sold 240 July futures at 390.00
    • Mizuho sold 400 Dec bean oil 42 puts at 115

 

Estimate fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans bought 5K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Z vol 19 ½ 430 str 11-12

F vol 19 440 str 23 ½-25

H vol 20 440 str 37 ¼-38

K vol 20 ½ 450 str 49-50 ½

N vol 21 ½ 460 str 60 ½-62

U vol 22 ½ 470 str 74-75 ½

Z14 vol 21 ¾ 470 str 82 ½-83

 

Beans

Z vol 15 1310 str 27-28

F vol 15 1310 str 55-57

G vol 16 ½ 1300 str 75-77

H vol 17 1300 str 91 ½-93

K vol 16 ¾ 1280 str 110-112

N vol 16 ½ 1280 str 128-132

X14 vol 16 1180 str 143-147

 

Wheat

Z vol 16 ½ 650 str 14-16

F vol 16 ¾ 660 str 30-32

H vol 18 660 str 49-51

K vol 19 ½ 660 str 67-70

N vol 20 ½ 660 str 82-85

 

KC Wheat

Z vol 14 ¾ 700 str 13-15

H vol 16 ¾ 700 str 47-50

K vol 18 ¼ 700 str 66-70

N vol 19 ½ 700 str 82-86

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 14 700 str 12-17

H vol 15 ½ 710 str 45-50

K vol 17 720 str 60-68

N vol 17 730 str 75-80

U vol 17 730 str 80-90

Z vol 17 740 str 90-105

 

Meal

Z vol 24 430 str 13-14

F vol 21.25 420 str 23.5-24.5

H vol 20.5 410 str 34-36

K vol 19.25 400 str 41-43

N vol 18.75 390 str 44-47

Q vol 18.5 390 str 45-49

 

Bean oil

Z vol 15.5 40.5 str 80-95

F vol 15.75 41 str 170-190

H vol 16.25 41.5 str 270-295

K vol 16 42 str 340-370

N vol 16 42 str 395-420

Q vol 16 42.5 str 425-465