From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment
  • Industry sources said Brazil may raise biodiesel blend by January to 7% from 5% currently. This may result in up to 10% more beans being crushed into bean oil and soymeal
  • Tomorrow Egypt FIHC will be holding a tender for 30,000 tons of optional origin sunflower oil for Dec shipment
  • On Nov 13th  Egypt Meditrade will be holding a tender for 20,000 bean oil and 20,000 sunflower oil for Dec-Jan shipment
  • Cordonnier’s weekly crop report estimates
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 90.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean planting area at 30.0 MH vs. previous estimate of 29.0 MH
    • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 68.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 total South American bean crop estimated at 160.8 MMT up 10% from a year ago
    • ‘13/14 total South American corn crop estimated at 97.1 MMT down 13% from a year ago
    • ‘13/14 US corn crop estimated at 13.67 BB unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 US corn yield estimated at 156.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 US bean crop estimated at 3.17 BB unchanged from previous estimate
    • ‘13/14 US bean yield estimated at 41.5 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Grain.gov.cn said palm oil port stocks in China are at 880,000 tons this week vs. 900,000 tons a week ago
  • Grain.gov.cn estimated China’s 2013 corn imports at 5.0 MMT
    • Estimated October corn imports at 100,000 tons
    • Estimated Nov corn imports at 800,000 tons
    • Estimated Dec corn imports at 1.4 MMT
  • Grain.gov.cn estimated China’s 2013 sorghum imports at 2.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.3 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 imports of 500,000 tons
  • Dec KC wheat closed below the 50 day moving average of 728 ½. Dec KC wheat settled at 722 ¼
  • Dec KC wheat settled at the 100 day moving average of 722 ¼ .
  • Dec meal closed below the 100 day moving average of 397.70. Dec meal settled at 392.80
  • Today was the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. In the last few minutes of trade
    • 5,236 Dec 2013- Dec 2014 corn traded at 40 ¾  electronically
    • 150 Dec 2013- Dec 2014 corn traded at  40 ¾  in the open outcry market
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • See below for estimates for Friday’s USDA report.
  • Open outcry option players
    • Rosenthal bought 800 Jan bean 1200 puts at 14 ¾ -15
    • Rand bought 1,200 Dec bean 1180 puts and sold 400 Dec bean 1220 puts at 2 ½ debit
    • FI sold 1,000 Dec bean 1260/1240 put spreads at 9 3/8-9 ¾
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 March corn 460 calls at 11 ¾
    • Jefferies sold 2,000 Dec corn 420 puts at 7 ½
    • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 450 puts at 28 ½ and bought 700 Dec futures at 426
    • Tenco sold 2,000 March corn 450 puts at 28 7/8 and sold 1,160 March futuers at 2 ¼
    • ADM sold 2,000 Dec corn 470 puts at 44 ½-45 ½
    • RJO bought 1,000 March wheat 690/720 call spreads at 8 ¼
    • JP Morgan bought 500 Aug meal 320 puts and  sold 500 Aug meal 420 calls at 150 credit
    • Rosenthal bought 300 Jan bean oil 41.5 puts and sold 300 March bean oil 40 puts at 35 debit

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 3K
  • Corn sold 2K
  • Bean sold 4K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Z vol 25 ¼ 425 str 19-20

F vol 22 ¾ 440 str 29 ½-31

H vol 22 ¾ 440 str 41 ½-42 ½

K vol 22 ¼ 440 str 53-54 ½

N vol 22 ½ 450 str 63-65

U vol 23 ½ 460 str 76-77 ½

Z14 vol 22 ½ 470 str 84 ½-86

 

Beans

Z vol 22 1250 str 47-49

F vol 18 5/8 1250 str 69 ½-71

H vol 19 ½ 1240 str 104-105 ½

K vol 18 ¾ 1220 str 125-127

N vol 18 ½ 1220 str 141-144

X vol 17 ½ 1140 str 154-157

 

Wheat

Z vol 19 ½ 660 str 23-24

F vol 18 670 str 36-38

H vol 20 670 str 57-59

K vol 21 670 str 75-78

N vol 20 ¾ 670 str 90-93

 

KC wheat

Z vol 18 ½ 720 str 22-24

H vol 18 ¾ 730 str 57-61

K vol 19 ¾ 720 str 75-80

N vol 21 710 str 90-95

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 17 710 str 20-25

H vol 17 ½ 730 str 50-58

K vol 18 ¼ 730 str 68-75

N vol 18 ½ 740 str 80-88

U vol 18 ½ 740 str 90-99

Z14 vol 18 ½ 740 str 100-115

 

Meal

Z vol 26.25 390 str 18.5-20

F vol 22.5 390 str 26.5-28

H vol 22 380 str 36-38

K vol 20.25 370 str 40.5-43

N vol 19.5 370 str 44-47

 

Bean oil

Z vol 17.25 41 str 115-130

F vol 17.5 41.5 str 200-220

H vol 16.5 42 str 295-315

K vol 16.5 42 str 360-390

N vol 16.5 42.5 str 420-450

Q vol 16.5 42.5 str 450-500

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN            CLOSE

DEC            62-64             57-58

FZZ             71-72             67-69

JAN            58.5-59.5     57-57.5

MCH          60-61            59.5-60.5

MAY          61-62            60.5-61

JLY              62-63            61.5-62

AUG          63.5-67         66.5-67

SEP            82-86             80-84

DEC 14     72.5-73.5      72.5-73.5

 

Crush player

 

Rand bought 100 Jan crush at 57.75-58

 

Estimates for Friday’s USDA November crop report. Report comes out at 11 am CST , there was no October USDA report due to US government shutdown. The last USDA US crop production report was Sept. 12th.

 

2013 US corn and bean production estimates

  • Corn production (27 analyst surveyed) average estimate 14.003 BB , range of estimates 13.421 BB – 14.367 BB . USDA September estimate was 13.843 BB and 2012 final production was 10.78 BB
  • Corn yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 158.933 BPA , range of estimates are 155.6-163.3 BPA. USDA September estimate was 155.3 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.0947 MA, range of estimates are 86.9-89.135 MA. USDA September estimate was 89.135 MA and 2012 final was 87.4 MA
  • Bean production (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.221 BB, range of estimates are 3.137-3.298 BB. USDA September estimate was 3.149 BB and 2012 final was 3.015 BB
  • Bean yield (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 42.407 BPA, range of estimates are 41.5-43.3 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 41.2 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • Bean harvested acres (26 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.928 MA, range of estimates are 74.7 – 76.98 MA. USDA September estimate was 76.378 MA and 2012 final was 76.1 MA

 

’13/14 US grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .519 BB, range of estimates are .380-.575 BB. USDA September estimate was .561 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.029 BB, range of estimates are 1.799-2.292 BB. USDA September estimate was 1.855 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) average estimate .172 BB, range of estimates are .145-.240 BB. USDA September estimate was .150 BB

 

‘13/14 global grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 175.879 MMT, range of estimates are 171.86-180.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 176.28 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 154.210 MMT, range of estimates are 150.87-159.5 MMT. USDA September estimate was 151.420 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.282 MMT, range of estimates are 71.14-74.0 MMT. USDA September estimate was 71.540 MMT