From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • TALK China bought 2-3 cargoes of US beans for Dec/Jan shipment today
  • Informa came out today at 1030 am CDT with their crop production estimates .
    • 2013 US bean crop estimated at 3.298 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.176 BB
    • 2013 US bean yield estimated at 43.3 BPA vs. previous estimate of 41.7 BPA
    • 2013 US corn crop estimated at 14.223 BB vs. previous estimate of 14.01 BB
    • 2013 US corn yield estimated at 161.2 BPA vs. previous estimate of 158.8 BPA
    • 2012 Argentine corn crop estimated at 26.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 31.5 MMT
    • 2013 Argentine corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 27.0 MMT
    • 2013 Argentine wheat crop estimated at 9.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.0 MMT
    • 2013 Argentine bean crop estimated at 59.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT
    • 2013 Argentine sunseed crop estimated at 2.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.3 MMT
    • 2013 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 86.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.0 MMT
    • 2013 Brazilian total corn crop estimated at 71.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
    • 2013 China corn crop estimated at 216.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 215.0 MMT
    • 2013 China bean crop estimated at 12.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 13.0 MMT
    • 2013 Russia wheat crop estimated at 53.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.5 MMT
    • 2014 Russia wheat crop estimated at 48.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 53.5 MMT
    • 2014 Ukraine wheat crop estimated at 20.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.0 MMT
    • 2013 Australian wheat crop estimated at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.0 MMT
    • 2013 India soybean crop estimated at 11.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.6 MMT
    • 2013 India rice crop estimated at 106.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 110.3 MMT
    • 2014 India wheat crop estimated at 95.0 MMT
    • 2013 global cotton crop estimated at 119.0 MB vs. previous estimate of 117.9 MB
  • Hearing – JP Morgan / Cargill estimated 2013 US corn yield at 164.0 BPA
  • Hearing – JP Morgan / Cargill estimated 2013 US bean yield at 43.5 BPA
  • Argentina farmers are threatening a strike if government doesn’t show signs of modifying policies for beans, corn , and wheat
  • Argentina’s Ag Min weekly crop progress report
    • Corn planting is 31% complete vs. 42% a year ago
    • Sunseeds planting is 45% complete vs. 50% a year ago
  • Dec wheat closed below the 50 day moving average of 670 ½. Dec wheat settled at 667 ¾
  • Dec meal closed below the 50 day moving average of 397.50. Dec meal settled at 394.90
  • Today was the last day of the Rogers roll.
  • FC Stone comes out at 3 pm today with their 2013 US crop estimate updates.
  • Final PMIs come out on Monday for Eurozone, Germany, and France
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins on Monday and ends on Friday. DB will be rolling long Dec 2013 corn positions into Dec 2014
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CDT
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CDT expecting
    • Corn harvest 72-80% complete
    • Bean harvest 85-95% complete
  • Open outcry option players
    • GFI sold 1,500 Jan bean 1250/1200 put spreads at 15 ½
    • GFI bought 1,500 Jan bean 1200 puts at 13 ½-14 ½
    • GFI bought 1,500 Jan bean 1280 calls at 24-25 1/2
    • ADM bought 3,000 May bean 1580 calls and sold 800 May bean 1400 calls at 2 credit
    • Tenco bought 5,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 2 7/8 and bought 850 Dec corn futures at 426
    • FI bought 2,000 July corn 600 calls at 3 7/8
    • EDF Mann bought 1,000 March wheat 720 calls at 16 ¾-16 7/8 and sold 320 March futures at 680
    • EDF Mann sold 1,100 Dec wheat 710 calls at 2 1/8
    • Mizuho bought 1,000 Dec 2014 wheat 650 puts at 36 ½
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 March wheat 720 calls at 17 ¾-18
    • ICap sold 1,000 Aug meal 380 calls at 19.50 and bought 480 Aug meal futures at 372.00
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec meal 400 puts at 11.00-11.50
    • New Edge bought 300 Jan bean oil 39 puts at 20
    • ADM sold 500 July bean oil 43 calls at 210-215

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn sold 2K
  • Beans sold 7K
  • Meal sold 3K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Z vol 25 ¼ 430 str 21 ¼ -22 ¾

F vol 22 ¾ 440 str 31 -32 ½

H vol 22 ¾ 440 str 44-45

K vol 22 ½ 450 str 55 ½-56 ½

N vol 22 ¾ 450 str 64 ½-66

U vol 24 460 str 77 ½-79

Z14 vol 22 ¾ 470 str 85 ½-87

 

Beans

Z vol 21 1250 str 49-51 ½

F vol 18 1250 str 70 ½-73

G vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 88 ½-90 ½

H vol 19 ½ 1240 str 105 ½-108

K vol 19 1240 str 126-130

N vol 18 ½ 1240 str 140-145

X14 vol 17 ¾ 1140 str 156-160

 

Wheat

Z vol 19 ½ 670 str 25-27

F vol 18 ¼ 680 str 38-40

H vol 20 ¼ 680 str 61-62

K vol 21 690 str 79-81

N vol 21 ½ 680 str 92-95

 

KC Wheat

Z vol 19 730 str 26-27

H vol 19 ¼ 740 str 62-64

K vol 20 730 str 80-82

N vol 20 5/8 720 str 93-95

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 17 730 str 19-26

H vol 17 ½ 740 str 55-61

K vol 18 ¼ 750 str 70-78

N vol 18 ¼ 750 str 78-88

U vol 18 ½ 750 str 90-100

Z vol 18 ½ 750 str 100-115

 

Meal

Z vol 23 400 str 20-22

F vol 21 390 str 37-39

H vol 21 390 str 37-39

K vol 19.5 380 str 41.5-43.5

N vol 19 380 str 44.5-46.5

 

Bean oil

Z vol 17.5 41.5 str 130-140

F vol 17 42 str 210-225

H vol 17 42.5 str 300-325

K vol 16.5 42.5 str 370-400

N vol 16.5 43 str 430-450

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN             CLOSE

DEC         62-64             57-59

FZZ          77-78             72.5-74.5

JAN          64-65            62.5-63

MCH        63.5-64.5     61-62.5

MAY        63-64             61.5-63

JLY            63.5-64.5      62-64

AUG        67.5-68          66.5-67.5

SEP          86-88.5          81-86

DEC 14    74-74.5         71.5-72.5

 

Crush Player

 

ABN bought 10 Jan 70 calls at 3.5

 

 

Thank you and have a nice weekend.