From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Regarding rumor on Mexico banning GMO corn – Mexico cannot plant GMO corn , but they can import GMO corn
  • USDA will decide by the end of the week whether to cancel the October crop report
  • China reports first new case of H7N9 bird flu since August – RTRS
  • COFCO this morning estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 3-5 MMT , but analysts said China has already contracted 6.0 MMT of wheat from the US and Australia
  • Some analysts are saying China bought up to 3 MMT of US beans and bought 800,000 tons of US meal over the last few weeks.
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 952.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 953.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 73.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 74.1 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 286.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 706.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate.
  • Oil World said as of Oct 10th Russia had harvested 3.66 MMT of sunflower on 1.88 MH (26% of total area) vs. 6.0 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World said as of Oct 10th Ukraine had harvested 66% of their sunflower crop vs. 88% a year ago
  • Oil World said as of Oct 10th Russia had planted 57% of their winter grain crop vs. 87% planted a year ago
  • Oil World may lower their Indian soybean crop estimate by 2.0 MMT due to excessive rains.
  • Oil World estimated ‘13/14 South America bean planting area at 54.2 MH (record) up 2.0 MH from a year ago
  • Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean planting area at a record high 29.0 MH vs. 27.7 MH a year ago
  • Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 corn planting area at 15.4 MH vs. 15.9 MH a year ago
  • Oil World estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 cotton planting area at 1.2 MH up 33% from a year ago
  • Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean planting area at 19.7 MH up 3% from ‘12/13
  • Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 sunflower planting area at 1.6 MH down 3.6% from a year ago
  • Oil World estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn planting area at 4.3 MH vs. 4.6 MH a year ago
  • Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 88-90 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 71.7 MMT
  • Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2013 grain exports at 18-20 MMT vs. 2012 exports of 15.69 MMT
  • UK customs data showed UK imported 255,227 tons of wheat in August vs. 328,511 tons in July
  • UK customs data showed UK imported 583,737 tons of wheat between July – August vs. 357,789 tons a year ago.
  • Manitoba, Canada weekly Canadian crop report
    • Crop quality average to above average
    • Canola harvest 85-90% complete
      • Canola yields range 30-70 BPA
    • Flax harvest 50-60% complete
    • Soybean harvest 90% complete
    • Spring cereals harvest 95% complete
    • Corn harvest 15-20% complete
  • Nov beans closed  the 200 day moving average of 1273 ¼ . Nov beans settled at
  • Weekly API energy inventory report scheduled to come out today at 330 pm CDT will NOT come out do to US government shutdown
  • China to auction 500,000 tons of beans from reserves tomorrow.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report will come out tomorrow at 730 am CDT as scheduled.
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report scheduled to come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT will NOT come out due to US government shutdown.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report and US ethanol plant production scheduled to come out tomorrow at 10 am CDT will NOT come out due to US government shutdown
  • Weekly US export sales report was scheduled to come out on Friday at 730 am CDT (delayed due to US holiday Monday) will probably NOT come out due to US government shutdown. Reuters put out estimates for the export sales report.
    • Wheat expecting 550K – 850K
    • Corn expecting 650K – 850K
    • Beans expecting 950K – 1.1 M
    • Meal expecting 150K – 250K
    • Bean oil expecting 5K – 20K
  • Informa is coming out on Friday at 1030 am CDT with 2014 US acreage estimates and production estimates
  • Open outcry option players
    • Vision bought 3,000 March bean 1320 calls at 34 and sold 1,080 March futures at 1260. (They bought 1,000 SH 1320 calls at 31 and sold 350 March futures at 1254 yesterday)
    • Jefferies sold 1,000 Nov bean 1270 puts at 14-14 ½ and sold 500 Nov futures at 1270
    • New Edge bought 1,000 Dec bean 1150 puts sold 500 Dec 1200 puts 1 1/8 – 1 ¼ credit
    • Rand bought
    • ICap bought 2,500 Dec corn 430/420 put spreads and sold 2,500 Dec corn 475 calls at a ¼ debit
    • New Edge sold 2,000 Dec corn 440 straddles at 25 ¼ – 25 ¾
    • Jefferies sold 500 Dec corn 450 puts bought 1,000 Dec corn 425 puts at 5 credit
    • ICap sold 850 Dec wheat 650/680 put spreads at 10 1/8 and sold 204 Dec futures at 686.
    • JP Morgan sold 100 Jan meal 440 calls at 3.75-4.00
    • JP Morgan sold 500 Dec bean oil 40 puts at 30 tied to futures at 4150

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 3K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 21 ½ 440 str 11-12 ½

Z vol 22 ¾ 440 str 25-26

H vol 21 ¾ 450 str 46-47

K vol 22 ½ 460 str 59-60 ½

N vol 23 ¼ 470 str 70-72

U vol 24 ½ 480 str 85 ½-86 ½

Z14 vol 23 ¼ 480 str 92-93

 

Beans

X vol 16 1270 str 25-27

Z vol 19 ½ 1270 str 64-65

F vol 19 ½ 1270 str 85-88

H vol 19 ¼ 1260 str 116-118

K vol 19 1240 str 131-134

N vol 18 ½ 1240 str 148-152

 

Wheat

X vol 19 680 str 16-18

Z vol 20 680 str 35-36

F vol 20 ¼ 690 str 49-51

H vol 21 690 str 68-69

K vol 21 3/8 690 str 83-86

N vol 21 ¾ 680 str 97-99

 

KC wheat

X vol 18 ½ 740 str 17-19

Z vol 19 ¾ 740 str 36-38

H vol 20 740 str 68-72

K vol 20 ¾ 740 str 87-91

N vol 20 ¾ 730 str 97-101

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 740 str 29-36

H vol 18 ½ 750 str 59-67

K vol 19 760 str 75-85

N vol 19 760 str 85-95

U vol 19 ¼ 760 str 95-105

Z14 vol 19 ¼ 760 str 109-125

 

Meal

X vol 23.5 400 str 11-13

Z vol 24 400 str 24-26

F vol 22.75 400 str 31.5-33

H vol 22 390 str 39.5-42.5

K vol 20.5 390 str 44.50-47.50

N vol 20.5 380 str 48-52

 

Bean oil

X vol 17 41.5 str 75-95

Z vol 17 41.5 str 170-190

F vol 16.75 41.5 str 230-255

H vol 16.75 42 str 315-345

K vol 16.5 42.5 str 380-41

N vol 16.5 42.5 str 440-470

 

Crush quotes

OPEN             CLOSE

DEC            66-66,5          66.5-67

JAN            63-64              62-63

MCH          62.5-63.5       61.5-62.5

MAY           61.5-63          62-63

JLY              61.5-63           62-63

AUG          63-66.5           64.5-66.5

SEP             80-85              80-85

DEC 14       70-71              70.5-71

 

 

Crush players

 

Tenco sold 100 Jan , Dec , Dec crush at 68

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg