From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • TALK – China seeking or buying US beans for Jan – April shipment
  • TALK – China seeking or buying US corn.
  • October futures expired today at noon.
    • October meal at 423.20 up 1.20 on the day
    • October bean oil at 4019 up 8 on the day
  • Safras e Mercado weekly report from Friday
    • Brazilian bean planting is 6.7% complete vs. 2.8% from a week ago vs. 9% a year ago and vs. 6.2% average
    • Brazilian summer corn crop is 42.1% planted vs. 43.2% a year ago
  • Somar said rains in forecast for Mato Grosso , Brazil
  • Ag Rural said Mato Grosso bean planting is 8% complete vs. 3% a week ago and vs. 9% a year ago
  • Hearing Ag Resource estimated 2013 US corn yield at 160.0 BPA
  • Hearing Ag Resource estimated 2013 US bean yield at 42.0 BPA
  • Saudi Arabia bought 50K UK origin barley
  • Algeria seeks 50K optional origin durum wheat for Nov – Dec shipment
  • CBH estimated Western Australia’s ‘13/14 grain crop at 12.7-13.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.5-12.6 MMT and vs. average of 10.6 MMT
  • Soybean Processors Association estimated India’s Oct meal exports at 250,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 450,000 tons due to heavy rains delaying bean harvest.
  • Ukraine’s Ag Min said as of Oct 14th 44.5 MMT of grain has been harvested on 12.8 MH or 81% of total area with an average yield of 3.47 TPH. A year ago the Ukraine harvested 38.0 MMT of grain on 13.0 MH with an average yield of 2.92 TPH
  • Ukraine’s Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 7.396 MMT of grain between July 1st – October 14th up 11.5% from a year ago
  • Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Oct 12th 19.832 MMT of grain has been harvested on 14.985 MH or 95.2% of total area with an average yield of 1.32 TPH
  • UK Farm Ministry said UK harvested 12.1 MMT of wheat this year down 9% from a year ago and harvested 7.1 MMT of barley this year up 29% from a year ago
  • Czech’s statistics office estimated 2013 grain crop at 6.898 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.746 MMT and up 22% from 2012 grain crop
  • Czech’s statistics office estimated 2013 wheat yield at 5.7 TPH up 32% from a year ago, rapeseed yield at 3.45 TPH up 25% from a year ago, and barley yield at 4.67 TPH up 10% from a year ago
  • Talks between union and Canadian National Railway breakdown , raising possibility of strike by October 28th – Reuters
  • New contract lows in Dec corn. The low of the day was 432
  • Nov beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1273 ½ . Nov beans settled at 1273
  • Dec meal closed below the 50 day moving average of 408.70. Dec meal settled at 407.40
  • Malaysian palm oil markets are closed tomorrow for holiday
  • Weekly US export inspections report scheduled to come out tomorrow at 10 am CDT GIPSA estimates are
    • Wheat 29-35 MB
    • Corn 19-23 MB
    • Beans 40-55 MB
  • Weekly US crop progress report scheduled to come out tomorrow at 3 pm CDT. This report will probably not come out do to US government shutdown.
    • Based on a Reuters survey of 14 analysts the average estimate for bean harvest is 45% complete. The range of estimates were 35-72% complete a week ago the average estimate was 22% complete a year ago was 71% complete and the average is 58% complete
    • Based on a Reuters survey of 12 analysts the average estimate for corn harvest was 31% complete. The range of estimates were 25-40% complete a week ago the average estimate was 20% complete a year ago corn harvest was 79% complete and the average is 42% complete
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Nov bean 1340 puts at 68 ¾ and bought 920 Nov futures at 1273
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Nov bean 1100 calls at 174 ¾ and sold 990 Nov futures at 1274
    • GFI bought 3,300 March corn 400 puts and sold 3,300 Dec corn 400 puts at 3 7/8 -4 debit .
    • Jefferies bought 2,000 March corn 450/470 call spreads at 7 ½
    • Macquarie bought 5,000 Dec corn 440/400 put spreads at 4 1/8 and bought 2,100 Dec corn futures at 433
    • ABN sold 800 Dec wheat 720 calls at 8 ¼ and bought 304 Dec wheat futures at 688
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 Dec wheat 710 calls at 11-12 ¼
    • Tenco bought 500 Dec meal 400 calls at 8.25
    • ADM bought 300 Nov bean oil 41 calls at 25
  • NOPA September crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT . Based on a Reuters survey
    • Crush expecting average estimate of 106.4 MB (9 year low) , range of estimates are 103-111 MB in August crush was 110.502 MB and in Sept 2012 crush was 119.732 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate of 1.473 B lbs , range of estimates are 1.285-1.630 B . August bean oil stocks were 1.669 B and September 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.043 B
    • No estimate is given for meal exports but in August meal exports were 306,684 tons
  • Weekly API energy inventory report will come out on Wednesday at 330 pm CDT due to US holiday on Monday. If US government is still shutdown API will not be put out .

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn bought 4K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal bought 1,500
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 21 ½ 440 str 13-14

Z vol 22 ½ 440 str 25 ¾-26 ¾

H vol 22 ¼ 450 str 47 ½-48 ½

K vol 22 ¾ 460 str 59-61

N vol 23 ¾ 470 str 72-73 ½

U vol 25 ¼ 470 str 86 ½-87

Z14 vol 22 ½ 480 str 93 ½-95 ½

 

Beans

X vol 17 ½ 1270 str 32-33

Z vol 18 ¾ 1280 str 63-65

F vol 18 ½ 1270 str 83-85

H vol 18 ¾ 1260 str 111-113

K vol 18 ¼ 1240 str 128-131

N vol 19 1240 str 144-147

 

Wheat

X vol 19 ¾ 690 str 19-21

Z vol 20 ¾ 690 str 37-38

F vol 20 ½ 700 str 51-53

H vol 21 ¼ 700 str 70-72

K vol 21 ¾ 700 str 86-89

N vol 21 ¾ 690 str 96-100

 

KC Wheat

X vol 19 ½ 760 str 20-22

Z vol 20 760 str 39-41

H vol 20 ¼ 760 str 72-75

K vol 20 ¾ 760 str 89-93

N vol 21 740 str 100-104

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 750 str 31-38

H vol 18 ½ 760 str 61-68

K vol 19 770 str 78-86

N vol 19 770 str 88-98

U vol 19 ½ 770 str 95-110

Z14 vol 19 ½ 770 str 100-125

 

Meal

X vol 23.25 410 str 13.50-15.00

Z vol 23.75 410 str 25-26.50

F vol 22.5 400 str 32-34

H vol 21.5 400 str 39-42

K vol 20.25 390 str 44-47.50

N vol 20 380 str 48-51

 

Bean oil

X vol 17.25 40.5 str 90-105

Z vol 17.25 40.5 str 170-195

F vol 16.75 41 str 235-255

H vol 16.75 41.5 str 315-345

K vol 16.5 41.5 str 380-410

N vol 16.5 42 str 430-460

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN                CLOSE

OCT             70-80                  —

DEC              64.5-65           67-67.5

JAN              63.5-64           64-64.5

MCH            61.5-63           63.5-64

MAY            61-62               62-63.5

JLY                60.5—61        61.5-62

AUG            63-66.5           63-66.5

DEC 14        69.5-70           70-70.5

 

Crush players

 

ADM sold 60 Dec at 65.75

 

Rand bought 200 Dec at 65-65.5

 

Tenco sold 50 Jan Dec Dec at 68.25

 

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg