From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • USDA spokesman said there will be no USDA crop production report on Friday.
  • TALK from this weekend/ morning – Chinese private buyers have bought 800-900K tons of US corn for ‘13/14 delivery
  • There will be no weekly US export inspections report or weekly US crop progress report today due to US  government being partially shutdown
  • According to USDA Federal Grain Inspection Service (FGIS) data posted to the government’s Grain Inspection , Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA)
    • Soybean inspections last week totaled 30.55 MB vs. 14.288 MB a week ago
    • Wheat inspections last week totaled 29.781 MB vs. 32.973 MB
    • Corn inspections last week totaled 25.267 MB  vs. 21.912 MB
  • Private analysts estimated US corn harvest at 18-20% complete vs. 12% a week ago , vs. 69% a year ago , and vs. 28% average
  • Private analysts estimated US bean harvest at 19-25% complete vs. 11% a week ago, vs. 58% a year ago, and vs. 40% average
  • Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2014 winter grain area at 13.0 MH vs. previous estimate of 16.0 MH
  • Somar said there are light rains in the forecast for most of Brazil bean areas
  • Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 85.2 MMT
  • Celeres said Brazil sold 30% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 46% a year ago
  • Celeres said Brazil has planted 3% of their ‘13/14 bean crop
  • Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 total corn crop at 83.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 85.1 MMT
  • Safras e Mercado weekly Brazilian report from Friday
    • Brazil has sold 92% of their ‘12/13 bean crop vs. 98% a year ago and vs. 90% five year average
    • Brazil has sold 32% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 45% a year ago and vs. 24% five year average
    • Said the ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop is 3% planted vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 2.5% average
    • Said the summer corn crop is 27% planted vs. 31% a year ago
    • Estimated ‘13/14 total Brazilian corn crop at 77.0 MMT vs. 82.0 MMT a year ago
  • Today was the first day of the Goldman Sachs roll. GS is rolling their long Nov bean positions into Jan. The roll ends on Friday. Activity on the close
    • Pit = 200 traded at a 1/2
    • Electronic = 11,403 traded at a ½
  • Index funds also rolled 3,200 Dec meal to Jan meal at 3.40-4.10 electronically and did 100 in the pit at 3.60-3.70
  • Index funds also rolled 3,249 Dec bean oil to Jan bean oil at 31-32 electronically and the pit did another 600 at 32.
  • Today was the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They have been rolling their long Nov 2013 bean positions into Nov 2014. DB roll ends tomorrow. Activity on the close
    • Pit = 100 traded at 119 ¾
    • Electronic =  3,046 traded at 118 ½
  • Nov beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1295 ¼ . Nov beans settled at 1296 ½
  • Nov beans closed above  the 100 day moving average of 1284 ½. Nov beans settled at 1296 ½
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘13/14 crops . USDA estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT and estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 88.0 MMT
  • Open outcry option players
    • New Edge sold 1,500 Dec bean 1200/1260 call spreads and bought 1,500 March bean 1200/1260 call spreads at 9 credit
    • Jefferies sold 900 Nov bean 1200 puts at 2 5/8-3
    • Tenco bought 5,000 March corn 450 puts and sold 5,000 Dec 450 puts at 3 ½- 3 ¾ debit
    • Jefferies sold 2,500 Jan corn 500 calls at 5 ¼
    • FI sold 1,000 March corn 470/430 put spreads at 19 -19 1/8
    • ABN sold 1,000 Dec wheat 680 puts at 15 ¼ tied to Dec futures at 694
    • Rand bought 700 Dec wheat 700 calls at 19-19 ¾
    • Tenco bought 900 May KC wheat 950 calls at 7 and sold 108 May KC futures at 755
    • Tenco bought 400 Dec meal 410 puts at 11.50 and bought 160 Dec meal futures at 418.00
    • New Edge bought 500 Dec bean oil 41 puts sold 500 March bean oil 38.5 puts and sold 500 March 43.5 calls at 20 debit
    • New Edge sold 500 Nov bean oil 40.5-39.5 put spreads at 50.
    • Mizuho sold 1,000 Nov bean oil 36.50 at 80

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn bought 5K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 19 ½ 450 str 15-17

Z vol 21 ¾ 450 str 27 ½-28 ½

H vol 21 ¾ 460 str 48 ½-49 ½

K vol 22 ¼ 470 str 61-63

N vol 23 ¼ 480 str 73-75

U vol 24 ¾ 480 str 88 ½-90 ½

Z14 vol 23 ½ 490 str 96 ½-97 ½

 

Beans

X vol 19 1290 str 44-45

Z vol 18 ¾ 1290 str 69-71

F vol 18 1300 str 86-88

H vol 18 ¼ 1280 str 113-116

K vol 18 1260 str 128-131

N vol 17 ½ 1260 str 144-148

 

Wheat

X vol 22 ½ 690 str 26-28

Z vol 22 ¾ 690 str 43-45

F vol 22 700 str 57-60

H vol 22 700 str 73-76

K vol 22 710 str 90-93

N vol 22 700 str 100-104

 

KC wheat

X vol 20 ¾ 760 str 28-30

Z vol 20 ¾ 760 str 44-46

H vol 20 ½ 760 str 75-79

K vol 20 ½ 760 str 90-95

N vol 20 ¾ 740 str 103-105

 

No Minneapolis wheat info today

 

Meal

X vol 26 420 str 18.5-20

Z vol 25.5 420 str 30-31

F vol 23 420 str 36-38

H vol 22.25 410 str 44-47

K vol 19.5 400 str 47.5-51

N vol 19.5 400 str 51-54

 

Bean oil

X  vol 17.5 40 str 115-135

Z vol 17.25 40 str 185-200

F vol 17 40 str 245-265

H vol 17 40.5 str 230-240

K vol 16.5 41 str 380-410

N vol 16.5 41 str 435-465

 

Crush quotes

OPEN             CLOSE

OCT         90-95               93-1.05

DEC          68-68,5           67.5-68

JAN          60-61.5           62.5-63

MCH        62.5-63           62.5-63

MAY        62.5-63.5        63-63.5

JLY            62.5-64           63-63.5

AUG        63.5-66.5        65.5-66.5

DEC 14    69-70                69-70

 

Crush player

 

Tenco sold 100 Dec at 68

 

Oil Share player

 

Rosenthal bought 100 Dec oil/90 meal at 32.28%

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg