From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina ‘13/14 corn planting area at 3.46 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.56 MH due to dry weather
  • Saskatchewan harvest is 79% complete vs. 5 year average of 74%
  • Farmer in Indiana said eastern IN seeing average soybean yields of 55.0 BPA expecting 45-50 BPA
  • Nov beans closed below the 50 day moving average of 1292 ½. Nov beans settled at 1288 ¼
  • Nov beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1282 ½. Nov beans settled at 1288 ¼
  • Nov beans closed above the 200 day moving average of 1274 ¼ . Nov beans settled at 1288 ¼
  • Today was the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling long Nov 2013 bean positions into Nov 2014. Activity
    • Pit – 200 traded at 117 ¾
    • Electronic – 2,908 traded at 118 ¼
  • Tomorrow US unemployment was scheduled to come out at 730 am CDT. Unemployment will be delayed due to US government shutdown.
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates. Previous estimates from Informa were
  • Weekly COT report may also be delayed due to government shutdown.
  • China still on holiday . Trading resumes Tuesday October 8th
  • Open outcry option players
    • Mizuho bought 1,000 Nov bean 1300 calls at 19 ½-20
    • Mizuho bought 1,000 Nov bean 1310 calls at 15 ½-16 ½
    • Mizuho bought 600 Nov bean 1370 calls at 4
    • New Edge sold 2,300 March bean 1200/1260 call spreads at 34 ¼ -34 ½
    • Macquarie sold 1,000 Nov 1400 calls at 1 ¾ and bought 60 Nov futures at 1284
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Nov 1390/1500 call spreads at 2 1/8
    • EDF Mann sold 1,000 Dec corn 480/450 call spreads at 7 ½
    • EDF Man bought 1,000 Dec corn 470 puts and sold 1,000 March 470 puts at a ¼ debit
    • RJO bought 1,500 May corn 400 puts at 7 7/8 and bought 240 May corn futures at 462
    • RJO sold 1,000 March corn 400/450 put spreads at 16 and sold 280 March futures at 455
    • Jefferies sold 2,000 Dec corn 470 calls at 4 ¾
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec wheat 710 calls and sold 1,000 March wheat 780 calls at ¾ -1 debit
    • ADM bought 300 July wheat 690 puts at 51 ½
    • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Nov wheat 720 calls at 7 ½-8 ½
    • ADM bought 500 May meal 390 puts and sold 500 March meal 390 puts at 7.25 debit
    • Rosenthal bought 1,650 July meal 360 puts sold 1,650 March meal 380 puts at 1.00-1.50 debit
    • Tenco sold 1,000 May meal 420 calls at 13.00
    • FI bought 500 Dec meal 430 calls at 11.25
    • Rosenthal bought 600 July meal 360 puts sold 600 March meal 380 puts at 1.00 debit
    • New Edge bought 300 Nov bean oil 40 calls sold 300 Jan bean oil 4250 calls at 20 debit
    • JP Morgan sold 900 Dec bean oil 42/40 put spreads at 130 tied to futures at 4005
  • Stats Canada comes out on Friday at 730 am CDT with 2013 Canadian crop estimates. Expecting
    • All wheat average estimate 32.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 30.56 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 27.21 MMT
    • Durum average estimate 5.7 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 5.12 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.63 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 16.6 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 14.73 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.87 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 2.91 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 2.81 MMT
    • Soybeans average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 4.798 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.93 MMT
    • Corn average estimate 13.2 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 13.08 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 13.06 MMT
    • Barley average estimate 9.5 MMT vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 8.81 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 8.01 MMT
    • Flaxseed average estimate 668,000 tons vs. Stats Can previous estimate of 615,000 tons and vs. 2012 crop of 489,000 tons
    • US corn crop estimated at 13.889 BB vs. USDA Sept estimate of 13.843 BB
    • US corn yield estimated at 157.6 BPA vs. USDA Sept estimate of 155.3 BPA
    • US bean crop estimated at 3.224 BB vs. USDA Sept estimate of 3.149 BB
    • US bean yield estimated at 42.4 BPA vs. USDA Sept estimate of 41.2 BPA

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn bought 3K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 4K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 20 440 str 16 ½-18

Z vol 21 440 str 27-28

H vol 21 ¼ 450 str 47-48

K vol 21 ¾ 460 str 59-60 ½

N vol 22 ½ 470 str 70-71 ½

U vol 24 470 str 84-85

Z 14 vol 22 ¾ 480 str 91 ½-93 ½

 

Beans

X vol 20 1290 str 50-51 ½

F vol 19 ¼ 1290 str 91-92 ½

H vol 19 1260 str 117 ½-119 ½

K vol 18 ½ 1240 str 134-136

N vol 18 1240 str 148-151

 

Wheat

X vol 23 690 str 31-33

Z vol 23 690 str 46-48

H vol 23 700 str 78-80

K vol 22 ¾ 700 str 93-97

N vol 22 ¾ 690 str 103-107

 

KC Wheat

X vol 22 760 str 32-34

Z vol 22 760 str 48-50

H vol 21 ¼ 750 str 67-71

K vol 21 ¼ 750 str 93-98

N vol 21 ½ 730 str 103-108

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 ¾ 750 str 38-45

H vol 19 760 str 67-73

K vol 19 760 str 79-98

N vol 19 760 str 88-98

 

Meal

X vol 26 410 str 20-23

Z vol 25 410 str 30.5-32.5

F vol 23 410 str 36-38

H vol 21.75 400 str 43-45

K vol 19 390 str 47-51

N vol 19 390 str 50-54

 

Bean oil

X vol 17.75 40 str 130-150

Z vol 17.25 40 str 190-215

F vol 17 4050 str 245-270

H vol 17 41 str 325-350

K vol 16.5 41 str 380-410

N vol 16.5 4150 str 430-460

 

Crush quotes

OPEN              CLOSE

OCT         78.5-80            90.5-92

DEC          67-67.5            68-68.5

JAN          60-60.5            59-60

MCH        60-61                60.5-61

MAY         61-62               61-61.5

JLY            62.5-63            62.5-63

AUG        64.5-66.5         63-66

DEC 14    68.5-70.5          69-70

 

 

Crush players

 

New Edge sold 50 Dec at 68.5

 

RJO bought 100 Jan at 59-60

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg