From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yield at 40.5 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2013 US corn yield at 152.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 88.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 82.0 MMT
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean area at 29.0 MH vs. ‘12/13 area of 27.7 MH
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian total corn crop at 72.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 81.0 MMT
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian total corn area at 15.0 MH vs. ‘12/13 area of 15.9 MH
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT vs. 49.5 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean area at 20.5 MH vs. ‘12/13 area of 19.5 MH
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT vs. 26.5 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn area at 3.5 MH vs. 3.8 MH in ‘12/13
  • Hearing Cordonnier said 3% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted vs. 6% average
  • He said Argentine soybean planting has not started yet
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated total ‘13/14 South American bean crop at 158.8 MMT vs. 146.4 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Hearing Cordonnier estimated total ‘13/14 South American corn crop at 100.6 MMT vs. 111.6 MMT a year ago
  • Conab will make their first ‘13/14 Brazilian crop estimates on October 8th
  • Frost in Argentina may have damaged some of their ‘13/14 wheat crop
  • Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weather specialist said severe frosts are in the forecast for Argentina over the weekend
  • Algeria government data showed Algeria imported 4.223 MMT of wheat between January – August vs. 4.055 MMT a year ago
  • Morocco seeks 16,500 tons of local barley .
  • Brazil’s first corn crop planting progress
    • Rio Grande do Sul 41% complete vs. 5 year average of 32%
    • Santa Catarina 39% complete vs. 5 year average of 34%
    • Parana 13% complete vs. 5 year average of 7%
    • Sao Paulo 1% complete vs. 5 year average of 1%
  • Dec corn contract low is 446. The low of the day was 448.
  • Dec wheat settled above the 50 day moving average of 655 ½. Dec wheat settled at 658 ¼
  • Dec KC wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 704. Dec KC wheat settled at 705
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 800K
    • Gas  a draw of 250K
    • Distillates a draw of 1.05 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • Open outcry option players
    • JP Morgan bought 1,200 Nov bean 1380 calls at 11 5/8 and sold 285 Nov futures at 1315
    • JP Morgan bought 1,500 Nov bean 1380 calls at 12 ½ and sold 375 Nov futures at 1320
    • JP Morgan bought 1,400 Jan bean 1260 puts at 26 ¾-27 and bought 420 Jan futures at 1320
    • New Edge bought 2,500 Nov bean 1180/1170 put spreads at ½
    • New Edge bought 2,000 Nov bean 1200/1180 put spreads at 1
    • New Edge bought 500 Nov bean 1240 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 1200 puts at 5/8 credit
    • Macquarie bought 1,000 Sept corn 490 puts at 45 ½-46 and bought 480 Sept futures at 484
    • FI sold 2,000 July corn 450 straddles at 74 ½-74 ¾
    • JP Morgan bought 3,500 Sept corn 480 puts at 42-43 ½ and bought 1,750 Sept futures at 481
    • Jefferies bought 1,000 March corn 470 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 480 calls at 16 ¼
    • EDF Mann sold 4,000 Dec corn 470/480 put spreads at 7 ½
    • FI bought 400 Dec wheat 630 puts at 13 tied to futures at 652
    • Bunge sold 400 Dec wheat 600 puts at 4 ¼
    • Bunge bought 1,500 Dec meal 480 calls at 2.50-2.75
    • Bunge bought 500 Dec meal 450 calls at 6
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec bean oil 43/42 put spreads at 55 tied to futures at 4210

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn sold 5K
  • Beans bought 3K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

X vol 23 ¼ 450 str 24-25

Z vol 23 450 str 33-34

H vol 22 ¼ 460 str 52-53

K vol 22 ¾ 470 str 63 ½-65 ½

N vol 23 ¼ 480 str 75-77

Z14 vol 23 ½ 490 str 96-99

 

Beans

X vol 21 ¼ 1320 str 66-67

F vol 19 ½ 1320 str 103 ½-105

H vol 19 ½ 1300 str 129-131

K vol 19 1280 str 144-148

N vol 19 1260 str 154-158

 

Wheat

X vol 23 660 str 35-37

Z vol 22 ½ 660 str 47-49

H vol 22 ½ 670 str 75-78

K vol 22 ½ 670 str 90-93

N vol 22 ½ 670 str 99-103

 

KC Wheat

X vol 21 700 str 34-36

F vol 20 ¾ 700 str 58-61

Z vol 21 700 str 46-49

H vol 20 ¾ 710 str 74-78

K vol 21 710 str 89-93

N vol 21 690 str 97-102

 

Meal

X vol 27 410 str 26-28

Z vol 26 410 str 33.5-35.5

F vol 23.5 410 str 38-40

H vol 22 410 str 44-46

K vol 19.5 390 str 44.5-47.5

N vol 19.5 390 str 48-51

 

Bean oil

X vol 16.5 42 str 155-170

Z vol 16.5 42 str 215-225

F vol 16.5 42.5 270-290

H vol 16.5 43 str 340-365

K vol 16.25 43 str 400-430

N vol 16.25 43 str 450-490

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

OCT           57.5-59           58-59.5

DEC           56.5-57            57.5-58

JAN           55.5-56            55-56.5

MCH         61-62                59-60

MAY         62.5-63             59.5-60

JLY             62.5-63.5         62-62.5

AUG         66-67                 64-66

DEC 14     66-67                 66.5-68

 

Crush players

 

New Edge sold 300 Dec 57-57.25

 

New Edge bought 100 Dec 57

 

New Edge bot 200 March 59-60

 

New Edge sold 100 March 60.75-61

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg