From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Lanworth estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.483 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.396 BB
  • Lanworth estimated 2013 US corn yield at 152.9 BPA vs. previous estimate of 152.2 BPA
  • Lanworth said they improved yield expectations in KS, NE, and SD
  • Lanworth estimated 2013 global corn production at 942.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated 2013 global bean crop at 281.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 278.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated 2013 global wheat output at 704.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 702.0 MMT
  • Indonesia’s Chief Economic Minster said Indonesia will temporarily scrap 5% soybean import tax.
  • Analysts estimated Indonesia’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 2.1 MMT (record)
  • Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s August palm oil stocks estimated at 2.2 MMT (14 month low) vs. 2.3 MMT in July
  • Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s August palm oil exports estimated at 1.58 MMT (3 month low) down .6% from July
  • Based on a Bloomberg survey Indonesia’s August palm oil output estimated at 2.1 MMT (8 month low) down 12.5% from July
  • Somar said some rains feel in parts of Mato Grosso, Brazil today, allowing for some soybean planting, but conditions are not ideal
  • Somar said Mato Grosso forecast is dry for the next 10 days
  • FAO estimated 2013 global wheat crop at 704 MMT (record) up 6.8% from a year ago
  • NDRC said China to buy rice for reserves
  • Chinese markets are closed tomorrow and Friday for mid-autumn festival.
  • China will not hold a bean auction this week due to holiday.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT expecting
    • Wheat 500-650K
    • Corn 450-650K
    • Beans 650-750K
    • Meal 100-230K
    • Bean oil 5-15K
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting +55 B
  • Open outcry option players
    • Mizuho sold 1,300 Nov bean 1200/1250 put spreads at 4 7/8-5
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 May bean 1400 calls sold 1,000 Jan bean 1400 calls at 6 ½ -7 debit
    • JP Morgan bought 1,100 Nov bean 1380 calls at 24-25 ½
    • Rand bought 2,000 Nov bean 1300 puts at 21 and bought 640 Nov futures at 1339
    • ADM bought 1,000 Nov bean 1450 calls and sold 500 Nov bean 1350 calls at 15 ¼ debit and bought 65 Nov bean futures at 1338
    • Jefferies bought 2,000 Nov bean 1220 puts at 12 ¼ and bought 440 Nov bean futures at 1338
    • Rand sold 1,000 Oct corn 450 calls at 7
    • ADM bought 2,000 Nov corn 420 puts at 3
    • GFI bought 1,000 Dec corn 450 puts and sold 1,000 Dec corn 470 calls at 4 ½ debit and bought 820 Dec corn futures at 454
    • ADM sold 1,000 Nov corn 445 straddles at 29 ½
    • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Dec 14 corn 450/400 put spreads at 14 3/8
    • RJO sold 400 Dec wheat 650 calls at 20 ½
    • FC Stone bought 250 Dec soymeal 420/380 put spreads at 11.25
    • New Edge bought 250 Dec bean oil 4550 calls and sold 250 Dec bean oil 39 puts at 5 debit
    • RJO sold 300 Dec bean oil 43 puts at 160

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 1K
  • Corn bought 4K
  • Beans bought 4K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

V vol 25 460 str 7-9

X vol 24 ½ 460 str 28-30

Z vol 23 460 str 35-36 ½

H vol 21 ¾ 470 str 52 ½-54

K vol 21 ¾ 480 str 63 ½-65 ½

Z14 vol 20 ½ 500 str 87-89

 

 

Beans

V vol 20 1350 str 18-20

X vol 21 ¾ 1350 str 75-76

F vol 19 ¾ 1340 str 110-112

H vol 20 1340 str 137-141

K vol 19 1300 str 149-152

N vol 19 ½ 1300 str 163-166

 

Wheat

V vol 21 650 str 9-10

X vol 20 ¾ 650 str 34-36

Z vol 20 ¾ 650 str 45-47

H vol 21 ½ 660 str 73-75

K vol 21 ¾ 660 str 87-90

N vol 22 660 str 97-101

 

KC Wheat

V vol 19 690 str 9-11

X vol 19 ¼ 690 str 33-35

Z vol 19 ¾ 690 str 45-47

H vol 20 700 str 71-75

N vol 20 ½ 690 str 95-99

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 17 ¾ 700 str 38-45

H vol 18 710 str 62-69

K vol 18 ½ 720 str 76-84

N vol 19 730 str 89-99

 

Meal

V vol 35 430 str 9-10

X vol 30.5 430 str 27.5-29

Z vol 24 430 str 33.5-35

F vol 22.75 430 str 38.5-40.5

H vol 21 420 str 44.5-46

K vol 19.5 410 str 46-50

 

Bean oil

V vol 19.25 42.5 str 50-60

X vol 18 42.5 str 185-205

Z vol 17.25 42.5 str 235-255

F vol 16.75 43 str 285-310

H vol 16.5 43 str 350-380

K vol 16.25 43.5 str 410-450

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN                CLOSE

OCT          62-63.5             58.5-59.5

DEC          60-60.5             58.5-59

JAN          58-59                 55.5-56.5

MCH        62.5-64             61-62.5

MAY         64-65                63-63.5

JLY            63.5-64.5          63-63.5

AUG        66-72                  66-72

DEC 14     69.5-71.5          69.5-71

 

Oil share player

 

New Edge bot 24 Dec oil/meal at 33.18-33.20%

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg