From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Lanworth estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 26.4 MMT up 3% from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated US ‘13/14 corn crop at 13.396 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.33 BB
  • Lanworth estimated US 2013 corn yield at 152.2 BPA
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 US bean crop at 3.113 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.114 BB
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 942.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 940.0 BPA
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 702.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 278.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tonight/tomorrow
  • Dorab Mistry will put out his veg oil estimates tomorrow.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT expecting
    • Wheat 450-650K
    • Corn 400-500K
    • Beans 650-800K
    • Meal 70-230K
    • Bean oil 10-20K
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting +67 B
  • Open outcry option players
    • Mizuho bought 2,000 March bean 1120 puts sold 1,000 March bean 1160 puts at 4 ½ debit
    • RJO bought 1,000 Nov bean 1300 puts at 21 5/8-22 ¼
    • FC Stone sold 1,500 Nov bean 1300 puts at 20 ½-21 and sold 450 Nov futures at 1354 and 1356
    • New Edge bought 2,000 Nov bean 1200-1240 call spreads and bought 2,000 Nov bean 1200-1240 put spreads at 40 debit
    • UBS bought 1,000 Oct bean 1400 calls at 9 ¾ -10 ½
    • Bunge bought 1,000 week 2 soybean 1330 puts at 10-11
    • FI sold 1,200 Oct corn 470 straddles at 20-21
    • JP Morgan bought 1,200 March corn 450 puts sold 600 March 370 puts at 7 3/4 credit
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec corn 550/600 call spreads at 1 ¾ and sold 60 Dec futures at 468
    • Rand bought 500 Oct wheat 670 calls at 3
    • Tenco bought 500 March meal 360 puts at 5.75
    • New Edge bought 250 Oct bean oil 43/42 put spreads at 35-40

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bot 1K
  • Corn bot 4K
  • Beans bot 1K
  • Meal bot 1K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles 

 

Corn

V vol 32 470 str 19 ½-20 ½

X vol 27 ¾ 470 str 35 ½-36 ½

Z vol 25 ¼ 470 str 41 ½-42 ½

H vol 23 ½ 480 str 60-61

K vol 23 490 str 70-72

Z14 vol 21 ¼ 500 str 92 ½ -93 ½

 

Beans

V vol 27 1360 str 47-48 ½

X vol 23 1360 str 86-88

F vol 20 ¾ 1360 str 121-124

H vol 21 1360 str 121-122

K vol 19 1320 str 153-156

N vol 1300 str 164-167

X 14 vol 16 ¾ 1200 str 166-170

 

Wheat

V vol 24 650 str 20-22

X vol 23 650 str 41-43

Z vol 22 ½ 650 str 51-53

H vol 22 ½ 660 str 78-80

K vol 22 ¾ 670 str 95-98

N vol 22 ¾ 660 str 103-107

 

KC Wheat

V vol 22 ¼ 700 str 19-22

X vol 21 ½ 700 str 41-43

Z vol 20 ¾ 700 str 51-53

H vol 21 ¼ 700 str 76-80

N vol 21 ½ 690 str 102-107

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 ¾ 710 str 44-49

H vol 19 ¼ 720 str 69-75

K vol 19 ½ 730 str 81-91

N vol 19 ½ 740 str 92-102

 

Meal

V vol 38 430 str 22.5-23

X vol 30 430 str 34-35.50

Z vol 26.75 430 str 37.5-39

F vol 23.5 430 str 41.5-43

H vol 21.5 420 str 47-49.5

K vol 19.5 410 str 47-50

 

Bean oil

V vol 19.5 4250 str 95-110

X vol 18.5 43 str 205-230

Z vol 17.75 43 str 255-275

F vol 17.25 43 str 305-330

H vol 16.75 4350 str 370-400

K vol 16.5 4350 str 425-465

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN               CLOSE

SEP           85-95               70-80

OCT          57-58.5            55.5-56

DEC          55-55.5            55.5-56

JAN          54-55.5            54.5-55

MCH         59-60.5           59.5-60.5

MAY         60-61               61-61.5

JLY             60-61               60.5-61.5

DEC 14      69.5-71.5        69.5-70.5

 

Crush players

 

New Edge sold 100 Dec at 56-56.5

 

New Edge bot 100 March at 61-61.25

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA report . USDA report comes out at 11 am CDT

 

Estimates for 2013 US corn and soybean crops

  • 2013 US corn production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.620 BB, range of estimates are 13.330 – 14.013 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.763 BB and 2012 final production was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield estimate (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 153.69 BPA, range of estimates are 150.2 – 157.2 BPA. USDA August estimate was 154.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA.
  • 2013 US corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.559 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.14 MA. USDA August estimate was 89.1 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.4 MA
  • 2013 US bean production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.140 BB, range of estimates are 2.98-3.239 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.255 BB and 2012 final production was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.172 BPA, range of estimates are 39.0-42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • 2013 US bean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 76.248 MA, range of estimates are 75.1-77.0 MA. USDA August estimate was 76.4 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.1 MA.

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .718 BB, range of estimates are .579-.769 BB. USDA August estimate was .719 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .123 BB, range of estimates are .107-.145 BB. USDA August estimate was .125 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .551 BB, range of estimates are .477-.600 BB. USDA August estimate was .551 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.732 BB, range of estimates are 1.147 – 2.296 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.837 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .165 BB, range of estimates are .114-.230 BB. USDA August estimate was .220 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 global ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 122.798 MMT, range of estimates are 115.86-125.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 123.110 MMT
  • ‘12/13 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.730 MMT, range of estimates are 59.700 – 62.220 MMT. USDA August estimate was 62.22 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 global wheat ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.76 MMT, range of estimates are 169.35-175.72 MMT. USDA August estimate was 172.990 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 146.927 MMT, range of estimates are 125.90-152.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 150.17 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.167 MMT, range of estimates are 67.1-75.0. USDA August estimate was 72.27 MMT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg