From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CDT
    • Wheat at 31.589 MB expecting 29-33 MB
    • Corn at 9.827 MB expecting 11-15 MB
    • Beans at 2.222 MB expecting 1-3 MB
  • Agritrend estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 53.0 MMT (record) vs. USDA estimate of 53.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 49.4 MMT
  • Agritrend estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean area at 19.5 MH vs. 19.0 MH in ‘12/13
  • Agritrend said 120,000 hectares of intended corn area will be switch to bean acres.
  • Macquarie estimated 2013 Australian wheat crop at 24.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 25.5 MMT
  • Macquarie estimated Argentina’s 2013 wheat crop at 10.5 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 12.0 MMT
  • Algeria seeks 50K optional origin barley for Oct shipment
  • Bean, meal, and corn cash markets were mostly lower today.
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT. Expecting corn good to excellent conditions to fall 1-3% and expecting bean good to excellent ratings to fall 3-5%
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board Aug data report comes out tomorrow. Estimates from Reuters –
    • August palm oil output average estimate 1.76 MMT vs. 1.67 MMT in July
    • August palm oil exports average estimate 1.53 MMT vs. 1.42 MMT in July
    • August palm oil stocks at 1.73 MMT vs. 1.66 MMT in July
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Sept 1-10th Malaysia palm oil exports tomorrow
  • ABARES Australian crop report comes out tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • Open outcry option players
    • FI bought 1,000 May bean 1100 puts and sold 1,000 May bean 1580 calls at a ½ credit
    • Macquarie bought 500 Nov bean 1300 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 1200 puts at 12 debit and bought 70 Nov futures at 1360
    • FI sold 1,000 Oct corn 450 puts at 4 ¼
    • FI sold 1,000 Oct corn 460 puts at 7 ¼
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 400/450 put spreads at 11 ¾
    • GFI bought 2,000 Dec corn 550 puts and sold 2,000 Dec corn 550 calls at even and bought 2,000 Dec futures at 550
    • ADM bought 1,000 Nov corn 550 call at 1 ¾
    • Rosenthal bought 1,000 March corn 380 puts at 3 ¼ and bought 90 March futures at 481
    • ADM bought 1,000 Nov corn 560/590 call spreads at 2 ¼
    • Tenco sold 500 Dec wheat 590 puts at 6 1/8
    • FC Stone bought 1,250 Oct meal 445 calls and sold 1,250 July meal 430 calls at .75-3.50 credit
    • FI bought 700 March meal 380 puts at 10.00
    • JP Morgan bought 500 Dec bean oil 46 calls at 55 tied to futures at 4350
    • Rosenthal sold 500 Dec bean oil 45 calls at 70-75

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 4K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

V vol 32 460 str 20-21 ½

X vol 28 ¾ 460 str 37 ½-39

Z vol 26 ½ 460 str 44-45

H vol 24 ¾ 470 str 62 ½-64

K vol 24 ¼ 480 str 73-74

Z 14 vol 24 490 str 81 ½ -83

 

Beans

V vol 28 ¼ 1360 str 53 ½-55 ½

X vol 24 ¾ 1360 str 95-96

F vol 22 ¼ 1360 str 130-132

H vol 21 1340 str 148-150

K vol 19 ½ 1300 str 155-158

 

Wheat

V vol 24 ½ 640 str 21-23

Z vol 22 ½ 640 str 50-52

H vol 22 ½ 650 str 77-80

K vol 23 660 str 94-98

N vol 23 660 str 103-107

 

KC Wheat

V vol 22 ½ 690 str 21-23

X vol 21 ¼ 690 str 40-43

Z vol 20 ¾ 690 str 50-53

H vol 21 700 str 76-79

N vol 21 ½ 690 str 102-107

 

No Minneapolis info today

 

Meal

V vol 38 430 str 26.5-28.5

X vol 31 430 str 38-40

Z vol 27 430 str 41-43

F vol 24 430 str 43-46

H vol 22 420 str 47-50

K vol 21 400 str 47-51

 

Bean oil

V vol 19.5 43 str 110-130

X vol 18.5 43 str 220-240

Z vol 17.75 43 str 265-285

F vol 17.25 43.5 str 310-340

H vol 17 4350 str 375-400

K vol 16.5 44 str 435-465

 

 

Crush Quotes

 

OPEN                 CLOSE

SEP             1.00-1.10           90-1.00

OCT            65.5-67.5           62-64

DEC            56.5-57.5           56.5-57

JAN            56-58                  57-57.5

MCH          60.5-62               60.5-61.5

MAY          62-63                   61-62

JLY             62-63.5                60-61.5

DEC 14      70.5-72                70-71.5

 

Crush players

 

New Edge sold 400 Dec at 57-58

 

New Edge bot 400 March at 61-62

 

Rand sold 300 Dec at 57

 

Estimates for Thursday’s USDA report

 

Estimates for 2013 US corn and soybean crops

  • 2013 US corn production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 13.620 BB, range of estimates are 13.330 – 14.013 BB. USDA August estimate was 13.763 BB and 2012 final production was 10.780 BB
  • 2013 US corn yield estimate (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 153.69 BPA, range of estimates are 150.2 – 157.2 BPA. USDA August estimate was 154.4 BPA and 2012 final yield was 123.4 BPA.
  • 2013 US corn harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.559 MA, range of estimates are 87.0-89.14 MA. USDA August estimate was 89.1 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 87.4 MA
  • 2013 US bean production (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.140 BB, range of estimates are 2.98-3.239 BB. USDA August estimate was 3.255 BB and 2012 final production was 3.015 BB
  • 2013 US bean yield (28 analysts surveyed) average estimate 41.172 BPA, range of estimates are 39.0-42.4 BPA. USDA August estimate was 42.6 BPA and 2012 final yield was 39.6 BPA
  • 2013 US bean harvested acres (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 76.248 MA, range of estimates are 75.1-77.0 MA. USDA August estimate was 76.4 MA and 2012 final harvested acres were 76.1 MA.

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 US ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .718 BB, range of estimates are .579-.769 BB. USDA August estimate was .719 BB
  • ‘12/13 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .123 BB, range of estimates are .107-.145 BB. USDA August estimate was .125 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 wheat ending stocks (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate is .551 BB, range of estimates are .477-.600 BB. USDA August estimate was .551 BB
  • ‘13/14 corn ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.732 BB, range of estimates are 1.147 – 2.296 BB. USDA August estimate was 1.837 BB
  • ‘13/14 bean ending stocks (24 analysts surveyed) average estimate .165 BB, range of estimates are .114-.230 BB. USDA August estimate was .220 BB

 

Estimates for ‘12/13 global ending stocks

  • ‘12/13 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 122.798 MMT, range of estimates are 115.86-125.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 123.110 MMT
  • ‘12/13 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 61.730 MMT, range of estimates are 59.700 – 62.220 MMT. USDA August estimate was 62.22 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • ‘13/14 global wheat ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 172.76 MMT, range of estimates are 169.35-175.72 MMT. USDA August estimate was 172.990 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global corn ending stocks (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 146.927 MMT, range of estimates are 125.90-152.00 MMT. USDA August estimate was 150.17 MMT
  • ‘13/14 global bean ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.167 MMT, range of estimates are 67.1-75.0. USDA August estimate was 72.27 MMT

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg