From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese Crush Breakdown
    • For the week Aug 24-30th total Chinese crush volume at 1,490,300 tons up 3.7% from a week ago
    • For the week Aug 24-30th total Chinese crush capacity utilization at 55.63% up .94% from a week ago
    • Total Chinese crush volume between Oct 1st 2012 – Aug 30th 2013 at 56,388,300 tons up 3.48% from a year ago
    • Total Chinese crush volume between Jan 1st 2013- Aug 30th 2013 at 40,825,720 tons up 6.38% from a year ago
    • As of Aug 16th total Chinese soybean stocks at 6.325 MMT vs. 6.318 MMT a week ago
    • Estimated August soybean imports at 5.81 MMT
    • Estimated September soybean imports at 4.8 MMT
    • Estimated Oct soybean imports at 4.5 MMT
    • Estimated Nov soybean imports at 6.0 MMT
  • Weekly US export inspections report came out this morning.
    • Wheat at 36.410 MB expecting 24-28 MB
    • Corn at 17.436 MB expecting 10-13 MB
    • Beans at 1.422 MB expecting 1-4 MB
  • Morocco seeks 50K durum wheat and 9,000 corn US or EU origin.
  • Egypt’s supply minister estimated Egypt’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 5.0-5.5 MMT
  • NCML estimated India’s 2013 grain crop at 134.5 MMT up 7.7% from 2012.
  • NCML estimated India’s 2013 soybean crop at 15.1 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 12.3 MMT
  • Russia’s Ag Min said as of Sept 2nd Russia has harvested 61.7 MMT of grain of 25.8 MH (56% of total area) with an average yield of 2.39 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 55.0 MMT on 29.1 MH with an average yield of 1.89 TPH
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at a record high of 57.9 MMT
  • Kazakhstan Ag Min said as of Sept 2nd Kazakhstan harvested 2.323 MMT of grain on 1.813 MH (11.5% of total area) with an average yield of 1.28 TPH. A year ago Kazakhstan harvested 6.14 MMT of grain with an average yield of .76 TPH
  • Turkey Ag Min estimated Turkey’s 2013 wheat crop at 22.0 MMT vs. 2012 wheat crop of 20.5 MMT
  • Dec corn closed below the 50 day moving average of 489. Dec corn settled at
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT, expecting corn and bean conditions to fall 3-5% from a week ago.  Some analysts are saying as much as 7-10% lower in bean conditions
  • Eurozone GDP comes out tomorrow
  • FC Stone comes out tomorrow at 3 pm CDT with their 2013 US crop production estimate updates.
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 3,000 Nov bean 1360/1260 put spreads at 25 and bought 570 Nov bean futures at 1404 ½
    • GFI sold 1,000 Oct bean 1300 puts at 8-8 ¼ and sold 80 Nov bean futures at 1389
    • Morgan Stanley bought 1,500 Jan bean 1400 calls and sold 1,500 Nov bean 1400 calls at 16-17 debit
    • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 1350/1250 put spreads at 27 ½ and bought 240 Nov futures at 1380
    • FC Stone bought 900 March corn 490 calls at 31 ¾-32 ¼ and sold 450 March futures at 486
    • Tenco bought 1,200 May corn 400 puts at 7 7/8 and bought 144 May corn futures at 492
    • New Edge bought 1,000 Dec corn 460 puts (tied to 473) and sold 1,000 Dec wheat 640 puts (tied to 648) at 4 credit
    • Mizuho sold 600 Dec wheat 710 calls at 12 and bought 156 Dec wheat futures at 660
    • Rosenthal bought 800 Dec meal 360 puts and sold 1,600 Dec meal 320 puts at 50 debit
    • Mizuho bought 200 Dec bean oil 45 calls at 115
    • Mizuho bought 200 Dec bean oil 45.50 calls at 95
    • Mizuho bought 200 Dec bean oil 48 calls at 35
    • JP Morgan bought 3,000 Dec bean oil 45 calls at 110 tied to futures at 4425

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 6K
  • Beans bought 8K
  • Meal bought 4K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

V vol 33 ¼ 480 str 27 ½-28 ½

X vol 30 ¼ 480 str 43-45

Z vol 27 ½ 480 str 49-50

H vol 25 ¾ 490 str 68 – 69 ½

K vol 24 ¾ 500 str 78-80

Z14 vol 22 510 str 97-99

 

Beans

V vol 26 ¾ 1390 str 70-71

X vol 25 ¼ 1390 str 105-108

F vol 23 1380 str 140 ½-144

H vol 21 1360 str 151-155

K vol 19 ½ 1320 str 161-166

N vol 18 ½ 1320 str 169-174

 

Wheat

V vol 23 650 str 25-27

X vol 23 650 str 44-46

Z vol 22 ½ 650 str 53-55

H vol 22 ¾ 660 str 80-82

K vol 22 ¾ 670 str 95-99

N vol 22 ¾ 660 str 104-108

 

KC Wheat

V vol 21 ½ 700 str 25-27

X vol 21 ¼ 700 str 44-46

Z vol 21 700 str 54-56

H vol 21 ½ 710 str 82-85

N vol 22 700 str 105-110

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 18 ¾ 730 str 48-53

H vol 19 ¼ 740 str 72-80

K vol 19 ¼ 740 str 84-94

N vol 19 ¾ 750 str 95-105

 

Meal

V vol 36 440 str 30-33

X vol 32 440 str 42-44

Z vol 29 440 str 46-48

F vol 26 440 str 49-51.

H vol 24 430 str 52-55

K vol 22 410 str 53-57

 

Bean oil

V vol 19 44 str 140-160

X vol 18 44 str 230-250

Z vol 17.25 44 str 275-295

F vol 16.75 44.5 str 320-350

H vol 16.5 45.5 str 380-410

K vol 16.5 44.5 str 440-480

 

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg