From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Midday weather added rain and cooler temps to the 11-15 day forecast
  • Farm Futures magazine surveyed 1,350 US farmers
    • 2014 US corn area estimated at 94.11 MA down 3.4% from 2013 estimate
    • 2014 US bean area estimated at a record high 78.75 MA up 2% from 2013 estimate
    • 2014 US all wheat area estimated at 57.76 MA up 2.2% from 2013 estimate
  • Hearing Dr. Cordonnier lowered his estimate for 2013 corn yield to 152.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 154.0 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 154.4 BPA
  • Hearing Dr. Cordonnier lowered his estimate for 2013 bean yield to 41.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 42.0 BPA and vs. USDA estimate of 42.6 BPA
  • Egypt FIHC bought 32,500 tons of sunflower oil for Sept/Oct shipment
  • CEC estimated South Africa’s 2013 corn crop at 11.513 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.394 MMT
  • CEC estimated South Africa’s 2013 wheat crop at 1.785 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 1.87 MMT
  • APK – Inform said Ukraine has exported 145,000 tons of wheat to Egypt between Aug 1-27th vs. 129,000 tons a year ago
  • Bloomberg survey of 7 local analysts and oil crushers estimated China’s ‘13/14 rapeseed imports at 3.0 MMT (most in 5 years) vs. 2.9 MMT a year ago and vs. USDA estimate of 2.5 MMT
  • Bloomberg survey of 7 analysts estimated China’s ‘13/14 rapeseed crop at a record high of 66.4 MMT
  • Bloomberg survey of 7 analysts estimated China’s ’13/14 rapeseed ending stocks at 3.1 MMT
  • UN estimated Algeria’s ‘13/14 grain imports at 8.96 MMT vs. 9.26 MMT a year ago
  • UN estimated Algeria’s ‘13/14 grain crop at 5.47 MMT up 9.1% from a year ago
  • KC Dec wheat settled below the 50 day moving average of 715 ½ . KC Dec wheat settled at 711
  • Dec bean oil settled slightly above the 50 day moving average of 4450. Dec bean oil settled at 4452
  • Dec corn settled below the 50 day moving average of 495 ¼. Dec corn settled at 486 ¼
  • Manitoba, Canada Ag Minister weekly crop report
    • Canola crop is 20% harvested with yields of 35-60 BPA
    • Spring wheat yields are 50-80 BPA
  • API weekly energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates draw of 250,000
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Oct bean 1330 puts at 14-17
    • Rand bought 500 Nov bean 1380 puts at 54 ½-55
    • Rand bought 500 Nov bean 1360 puts at 44 ¾-47
    • Morgan Stanley sold 2,000 Nov bean 1320 puts at 23 sold 520 Nov futures at 1395
    • Bunge bought 1,500 Oct bean 1370 puts at 26 ¾-27 ¾
    • ADM bought 1,000 Jan bean 1240/1440 call spreads at 121
    • Mizuho bought 2,000 March corn 400 puts at 5 1/8
    • ICap bought 1,500 Dec corn 470 put at 17 ½ tied to futures at 492 ½
    • Macquarie bought 1,000 Dec corn 480 puts at 22 tied to futures at 492
    • Rand bought 1,500 Dec corn 480 puts at 18 1/8 and bought 525 Dec corn futures at 499 ¾
    • Paper bought 1,000 Dec corn 530 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 470 puts at 1 ½ tied to futures at 500
    • Rosenthal sold 400 March wheat 680 straddles at 89-90 tied to futures at 680
    • JP Morgan sold 1,500 July meal 360/340 put spreads at 4.65 tied to futures at 402.00
    • Bunge sold 1,000 Dec meal 480 calls at 11
    • ADM bought 900 Dec meal 360 puts at 3.50
    • JP Morgan sold 500 Dec bean oil 46 calls at 95

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn sold 10K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 2K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

V vol 35 ½ 485 str 34-35

X vol 31 485 str 47 ½-48 ½

Z vol 28 ¾ 490 str 54-55

H vol 26 ¼ 500 str 72-73

K vol 25 ¼ 610 str 82-83

Z14 vol 21 ¾ 610 str 97 ½-98 ½

 

Beans

V vol 26 ¼ 1370 str 75-77

X vol 24 1370 str 105-107

F vol 20 ½ 1360 str 127-129

H vol 19 1360 str 140-144

K vol 18 ½ 1320 str 152-155

 

Wheat

V vol 23 ½ 660 str 31-34

X vol 23 ¾ 660 str 49 -51

Z vol 23 ¾ 660 str 59-62

H vol 23 ½ 670 str 86-89

K vol 23 ½ 680 str 101-105

N vol 23 ½ 680 str 111-115

 

KC Wheat

V vol 22 710 str 31-33

X vol 22 710 str 49-51

Z vol 22 710 str 60-62

H vol 22 720 str 87-91

 

Minneapolis wheat

Z vol 21 740 str 57-62

H vol 21 ¼ 750 str 82-89

K vol 21 ½ 760 str 97-107

 

Meal

V vol 26 440 str 32-35

X vol 23 430 str 43-47

Z vol 29 430 str 49-51

F vol 26 430 str 49-51

H vol 26 420 str 52-56

K vol 22 400 str 55-60

 

Bean oil

V vol 18 44 str 155-175

X vol 17.75 44.5 str 245-265

Z vol 17 4450 sttr 280-305

F vol 16.25 4450 str 325-350

H vol 16.25 45 str 380-415

K vol 16.25 45 str 450-485

 

Crush players

 

Knight sold 100 XUU at 120-125

 

Tenco sold 50 XUU at 115

 

Oil share player

 

ABN bought 55 Jan oil/ 39 meal at 33.90%

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg