From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. Day 3 Results. Tomorrow is the last day of the tour and scouts will be in Iowa
    • 2 routes of the tour in southwest Iowa said the average corn yield was 156.9 BPA vs. 137.0 BPA a year ago
    • Average bean pod count at 1,169 pods vs. 1,000 a year ago and vs. 1,190 three year average
    • South central IA average yield 125.8 BPA vs. 88.7-137.0 BPA a year ago and vs. three year average of 125.1-151.6 BPA
    • South central IA average bean pod count at 853 pods vs. 850-1,044 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,119-1,200 pods
    • Scouts said conditions were very dry in south central IA
    • Another route in southwest-west central Iowa range of yields were 124-187 BPA
    • Southern IL average corn yield 170 BPA vs. 126.8 BPA a year ago and vs. 141.33 BPA 3 year average
    • Southern IL average soybean pod count at 956 pods vs. 808 pods a year ago and vs. 3 year average of 1,177 pods
  • Forgot to mention in my morning wire – There were 3 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Buffalo IA
  • China bought 55K tons of Australian wheat for Dec shipment
  • China has bought 2.2 MMT of Australian new crop wheat so far this season
  • Analysts estimated China’s ‘13/14 wheat imports from Australia at 4.0 MMT
  • China has also bought 3.7 MMT of US wheat so far this season
  • Malaysia bought 45K Ukrainian corn for Oct shipment at a sharp discount to US corn . $10 – $25 per ton cheaper.
  • Vietnam bought 120K US meal for Oct/Dec shipment
  • Analysts estimated Vietnam’s 2013 animal feed demand at a record 13.5 MMT up 5% from a year ago
  • Analysts estimated Vietnam’s 2013 meal imports at 2.6 MMT up 6% , including 300K tons from the US
  • Dec meal made a new contract high of 413.00 today.
  • Western Australia Ag Min estimated their ‘13/14 wheat crop at 6.2 MMT vs. ABARES estimate of 8.8 MMT vs. ANZ estimate of  7.9 MMT and vs. Lachstock Consulting estimate of 7.3 MMT
  • Western Australia Ag Min estimated ’13/14 grain crop at 10.5 MMT vs. the 10 year average of 11.0 MMT due to dry weather
  • CBH Group estimated Western Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat crop at 7.5 MMT vs. 6.0 MMT a year ago
  • CBH Group estimated Western Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat exports at 7.0 MMT
  • CBH Group estimated Australia’s total ‘13/14 wheat crop at 25-25.5 MMT vs. ABARES estimate of 25.399 MMT
  • CBH Group estimated Australia’s total ‘13/14 wheat exports at 18.0 MMT
  • Russia may lift ban on Indian rice imports
  • Russia’s Ag Min said as of Aug 20th Russia has harvested 53.3 MMT of grain vs. 47.7 MMT a year ago. Average yield is 2.58 TPH vs. 1.98 TPH a year ago
  • Russia’s Ag Min said as of Aug 20th Russia has harvested 36.2 MMT of wheat vs. 29.4 MMT a year ago. Average yield is 2.95 TPH vs. 2.10 TPH a year ago
  • SovEcon estimated Russia’s August grain exports at 3.1-3.2 MMT vs. 2.6 MMT in July and vs. 2.9 MMT in August 2012
  • Indonesia to lower palm oil export tax to 9.0% in September vs. 10.5% currently
  • Algeria imported 3.78 MMT of wheat between Jan-July vs. 3.66 MMT a year ago
  • Indonesia exported 1.59 MMT of palm oil in July vs. 1.62 MMT in June
  • Indonesia exported 12.19 MMT of palm oil between Jan – July.
  • GAPKI estimated Indonesia’s 2013 palm oil output at 28.0 MMT
  • GAPKI estimated Indonesia’s 2013 palm oil exports at 18.0 MMT
  • Heavy rainfall in parts of India may have damaged soybean crops.
  • Chinese and European flash PMIs come out tonight/tomorrow
  • China to auction 500K tons of beans from reserves tomorrow
  • Tomorrow is the second day of the international grains conference in Australia. Conference ends on Friday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT expecting
    • Wheat 400-650K
    • Corn 550-950K
    • Beans 1.35 – 2.0 MMT
    • Meal 150-400K
    • Bean oil 0-20K
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting +67B
  • Open outcry option players
    • JP Morgan sold 2,000 Nov bean 1220 puts at 15 and sold 380 Nov bean futures at 1315
    • JP Morgan sold 1,600 Nov bean  1220 puts at 15 and sold 335 Nov bean futures at 1310
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Nov bean 1340 calls at 34-36
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Oct bean 1400 calls at 9-9 ¼ and sold 210 Nov bean futures at 1309
    • FI bought 1,000 Nov bean 1200 puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 1400 call combos at 6 credit and bought 420 Nov futures at 1310
    • RJO bought 1,250 May bean 1260/1320 call spreads at 25-25 ½
    • RJO bought 1,000 Nov bean 1400 calls at 17-20 ½
    • Jefferies bought 2,000 Sept short dated corn 490 puts and sold 2,000 Nov corn 450 puts at 1 ¼ debit
    • ABN sold 1,000 Oct corn 450p/510c strangles at 12
    • Macquarie sold 2,000 Dec corn 420 puts at 6 1/8-6 ¼ and bought 280 Dec corn futures at 477
    • FI bought 1,000 Dec corn 540 calls at 8 1/8 and sold 220 Dec corn futures at 480
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn 470/510 call spreads at 16 7/8 and sold 250 Dec corn futures at 482
    • Tenco bought 500 Dec wheat 680 calls at 17-17 ¼
    • ADM sold 500 Dec meal 440 calls at 10.00
    • JP Morgan bought 2,000 Dec meal 360/320 put spreads at 3.75 – 4.00
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec meal 430 calls at 13-13.25 tied to futures at 411.00
    • JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec meal 440 calls at 9.25-9.75

 

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 2K
  • Corn bought 6K
  • Beans bought 5K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

U vol 34 ¼ 500 str 12-13 ½

V vol 29 480 str 31 ½-33

X vol 27 ¾ 480 str 44-46

Z vol 26 ¾ 480 str 50 ¾ -51 ¾

H vol 24 ½ 500 str 68-69

K vol 23 ½ 500 str 76-78

Z 14 vol 20 ¾ 510 str 92-95

 

Beans

U vol 25 1330 str 22-24

V vol 23 ¼ 1300 str 70-71

X vol 21 ¾  1320 str 96-98
F vol 20 1300 str 121-122

H vol 19 ½ 1280 str 139-142

K vol 19 1260 str 153-156

N vol 19 ¾ 1260 str 167-171

 

Wheat

U vol 24 640 str 9-11

V vol 22 650 str 32-34

Z vol 21 ¼ 650 str 57-59

H vol 21 ¼ 660 str 81-84

K vol 22 ½ 670 str 96-100

N vol 22 ¾ 660 str 107-111

 

KC Wheat

U vol 20 ½ 700 str 10-12

V vol 20 ½ 700 str 33-36

Z vol 21 700 str 59-61

H vol 21 710 str 83-87

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 19 730 str 8-12

Z vol 18 ¼ 740 str 50-54

H vol 19 750 str 71-80

 

Meal

U vol 35 420 str 9-12

V vol 27.25 410 str 25.5-27.5

Z vol 25 410 str 41-42.5

F vol 23.5 410 str 45-47

H vol 22.5 400 str 48.5-51.5

K vol 21.5 380 str 51.5-54.5

 

Bean oil

U vol 18.5 43 str 45-60

V vol 17.5 43 str 165-180

Z vol 16.75 43 str 280-290

F vol 16.5 4350 str 325-350

H vol 16.25 43.5 str 380-410

K vol 16.25 43.5 str 440-470

 

Crush quotes

OPEN         CLOSE

SEP            68-71          67-69

OCT           71.5-2        68.5-70.5

DEC           68.5-69      68.5-69

JAN           65.5-67      65-66.5

MCH         67-68.5      68.5-69

MAY         69-70          69.5-70

JLY            69.5-70.5    69.5-70

DEC 14     74-75           74.5-75

 

Crush Players

 

New Edge sold 50 Dec at 69.5

 

New Edge bought 50 March at 68.5

 

RJO bought 50 UZZ at 52

 

Oil Share Player

 

ABN bought 200 Jan oil/144 Jan meal at 34.80%

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg