From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 6/24/13

News

·         Weekly US export inspections came out today at

o   Wheat 14.758 MB expecting 19-21 MB

o   Corn 5.843 MB expecting 6-11 MB

·         From a contact from Brazil he doesn’t believe Brazilian port workers will strike tomorrow

·         There was a protest today on one Brazilian highway , slowing truck movement to Santos port.

·         Better than expected wheat yields being seen in Kansas

·         November beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1259 ¾. Nov beans settled at 1273 ½

·         Dec corn closed above the 50 day moving average of 542 ¾ . Dec corn settled at 546 ½

  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT . I will email the report when it comes out. Expecting
    • Bean planting 93-97% complete vs. 85% a week ago
    • Bean conditions expecting 1-3% higher than last week’s condition of 64% good to excellent
    • Corn conditions expecting 1-3% higher than last week’s condition of 64% good to excellent
    • Spring wheat condition expecting 1-2% higher than last week’s condition of 68% good to excellent
    • Winter wheat harvest expecting about 25% complete vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 5 year average of about 35%
  • Argentine farm leaders meet tomorrow  to discuss government and possibility of more strikes.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysian June 1-25th palm oil export estimates expecting 1.17 MMT up 9.4% from a month ago
  • Stats Canada comes out on Tuesday at 730 am CDT with their acreage report. Based on a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts
    • Canada wheat area average estimate 26.183 MA, range of estimates are 25.3-27 MA  . In April Stats Canada estimated wheat area at 26.618 MA
    • Canada canola area average estimate 19.635 MA, range of estimates are 19-20.117 MA, In April they estimated canola area at 19.133 MA
    • Canada barley area average estimate 7.158 MA, range of estimates are 6.8-7.5 MA. In April they estimated the area at 7.24 MA
    • Canada oat area average estimate 3.27 MA, range of estimates are 3.0-3.5 MA. In April they estimated the area at 3.379 MA
    • Canada corn area average estimate 3.743 MA, range of estimates are 3.4-3.95 MA. In April they estimated the area at 3.813 MA
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • See below for estimates for Friday’s USDA report

·         Open outcry option players

o   Bunge bought 1,000 Aug bean 1420 calls at 37 ½-38 ½

o   ABN bought 1,000 Nov 1200 puts 38-40

o   Macquarie bought 1,000 Sept corn 570/550 put spreads at 8 ¾ bought 100 Sept futures at 579

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Sept corn 580c/550p combos at 13 7/8 and sold 850 Sept futures at 580

o   Tenco bought 2,000 Dec corn 520/480 put spreads at 14 3/8 bought 300 Dec futures at 544

o   FI bought 2,000 Sept corn 560 puts at 23 and bought 760 Sept futures at 580

o   FI bought 2,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 21 and bought 560 Dec futures at 545

o   RJO bought 600 Dec wheat 580 puts at 6 ¾ -7

o   Bunge bought 500 Aug meal 440 calls at 8.00

o   RJO bought 900 Dec bean oil 46p/50c combos at 125-130

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 5K

·         Corn sold 6K

·         Beans bought 2K

·         Meal bought 2K

·         Bean oil sold 2K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 37 580 str 50 ½-52

U vol 34 ½ 580 str 65-66

V vol 31 ½ 550 str 66-70

Z vol 29 ½ 550 str 82 ½-84

H vol 27 ½ 560 str 98-100

Beans

Q vol 23 ¼ 1420 str 78-80

U vol 24 1320 str 102-104

V vol 23 ½ 1270 str 115-117 ½

X vol 23 ¼ 1280 str 136 ½-139

F vol 21 ¼ 1280 str 164-168

H vol 20 1280 str 164-168

K vol 19 ½ 1280 str 174-179

N vol 18 ¾ 1280 str 178-184

Wheat

Q vol 29 ½ 690 str 47-49

U vol 27 ½ 690 str 61-63

Z vol 26 700 str 93-95

H vol 24 ½ 720 str 113-115

K vol 24 720 str 126-130

N vol 23 730 str 126-135

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 23 790 str 53-62

Z vol 22 800 str 82-92

H vol 20 810 str 90-110

KC Wheat

Q vol 26 720 str 44-49

U vol 25 ½ 720 str 58-63

Z vol 24 ½ 740 str 91-97

H vol 22 750 str 104-112

Meal

Q vol 29 ¼ 420 str 29.5-31.5

U vol 29.25 400 str 37.5-39.5

V vol 28.25 380 str 41.5-43

Z vol 27.5 380 str 52.5-54.5

F vol 26 380 str 53.5-57

H vol 23.5 380 str 55-59

Bean oil

Q vol 18 47.5 str 195-210

U vol 18 47 str 260-280

V vol 18 47 str 320-340

Z vol 18 46.5 str 410-435

F vol 17.5 46 str 440-470

H vol 17.25 46 str 490-530

Crush quotes

 

                OPEN             CLOSE

JLY          17.5-19           3-4

AUG      34-36               31-32

SEP        80-83                79-80.5

OCT       77.5-78            78-79

DEC       70.5-71             70.5-71.5

JAN       65-66                 66-67

MCH     65.5-66             65-66

MAY     65-66.5              65-66

Crush player

 

Knight sold 20 Dec at 70.75

Estimates for Friday’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and 2013 US Acreage Report.

 

Estimate for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

·         Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .745 BB, range of estimates are .718-.781 BB. June 1st 2012 wheat stocks were .743 BB and March 1st 2013 wheat stocks were 1.234 BB

·         Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.845 BB, range of estimates are 2.725-2.952 BB . June 1st 2012 corn stocks were 3.148 BB and March 1st 2013 corn stocks were 5.399 BB.

·         Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .442 BB, range of estimates are .413-.500 BB . June 1st 2012 bean stocks were .667 BB and March 1st 2013 bean stocks were .999 BB

 

Estimates for 2013 US Acreage

·         Corn (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 95.313 MA, range of estimates are 94.2-96.9 MA. USDA March estimate was 97.282 MA and 2012 US final corn acreage was 97.155 MA

·         Beans (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 77.933 MA , range of estimates are 77.1-79.24 MA. USDA March estimate was 77.126 MA and 2012 US final bean acreage was 77.198 MA

·         All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.902 MA, range of estimates are 55.2-56.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 56.44 MA and 2012 US final all wheat acreage was 55.736 MA

·         Spring wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.132 MA, range of estimates are 11.7-12.7 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.701 MA and 2012 US final spring wheat acreage was 12.289 MA

·         Durum (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.699 MA, range of estimates are 1.55-1.80 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.751 MA and 2012 US final durum acreage was 2.123 MA

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg