From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 6/18/13

News

·         Oil World

o   Said Global soymeal supplies are still tight.

o   Said Argentina and Brazil meal exports in March and May 2013 fell 800,000 tons from a year ago

o   Said India’s 2013 March and May meal exports fell 400,000 tons from a year ago

o   Said US old crop bean supplies are tight

o   Said the US will import up to 100,000 tons of beans in June

o   Said the US will import up to 150,000 tons of beans in July

o   Expects Brazil to export at least 30K tons of beans to the US in June

o   Expects Paraguay to export at least 30K tons of beans to the US in June

o   Estimated ‘12/13 global veg oils and fats use at 187.7 MMT vs. 183.0 MMT in ‘11/12

o   Said 2013 food use of oil estimated at 164.2 MMT vs. 159.7 MMT a year ago

o   Said 2013 biofuel use of oils and fats estimated at 23.5 MMT vs. 23.3 MMT in 2012

·         Chinese Industry Analysts Weekly Crush Breakdown

o   For the week June 8-14th total crush volume was at 1,237,400 MMT down .89% from the previous week due to the Dragon Boat Festival.

o   For the week June 8-14th total crush capacity utilization at 48.44% down .44% from the previous week

o   Total crush volume between October 1st 2012 – June 14th 2013 at 41,348,900 tons down .32% from a year ago

o   Total crush volume between January 1st 2013 – June 14th 2013 at 25,786,320 tons up 1.62% from a year ago

o   As of June 14th total import bean stocks at 4.4614 MMT up 83,400 tons from a week ago

o   Estimated June bean imports at 7.28 MMT

o   Estimated ‘12/13 Brazilian bean crop at 81.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated ‘12/13 Brazilian corn crop at 77.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated ‘12/13 Argentine bean crop at 50.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated ’12/13 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Dr. Cordonnier Weekly Report

o   Estimated US 2013 corn yield at 153.0 BPA unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated US 2013 corn crop at 13.26 BB unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated US 2013 corn planting area at 94.3 MA down 3.0 MA from the USDA estimate

o   Estimated US 2013 bean yield at 42.5 BPA unchanged from  previous estimate

o   Estimated US 2013 bean crop at 3.26 BB unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated US 2013 bean planting area at 77.87 MA up 750,000 acres from USDA estimate

·         Based on a Bloomberg survey of 3 Indonesian analysts

o   Estimated Indonesia’s May palm oil exports at 1.57 MMT up 5.4% from April

o   This would be the first increase since January

o   Estimated Indonesia’s May palm oil production at 2.0 MMT down 4.8% from April

o   Estimated Indonesia’s May palm oil stocks at 2.6 MMT down 7.1% from April

o   Expects demand to pick up more ahead of Ramadan which begins in July

·         Jordan bought 100K optional origin wheat Sept/Oct shipment

·         Egypt Meditrade bought 12K optional origin sunflower oil for July shipment

·         USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated 2013 wheat imports at 2.5 MMT up 13% from a year ago

·         USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated ‘13/14 wheat production at 600,000 tons vs. 780,000 tons in ‘12/13

·         Devizes said UK’s ‘13/14 rapeseed crop may fall to 1.5-2.0 MMT due to excess rains. TALK UK may need to import rapeseed . In ‘12/13 UK rapeseed crop totaled 2.56 MMT

·         SovEcon said harvest has begun in Southern Russia. As of June 17th 682,600 tons of grain has been harvested from 140,200 hectares

·         SovEcon said average grain yields in South Russia are 4.87 TPH vs. 2.98 TPH at the start of harvest a year ago

·         Feed millers may substitute wheat with corn due to Black Sea origin corn selling at a discount of $23 a metric ton to feed wheat in East Asia.

·         ABARE said FOB Gulf price of US HRW wheat seen average of $315 per ton in the year starting July 1st vs. previous forecast of $320 per ton and vs. $348 per ton a year ago

·         ABARE estimated global wheat output at 690 MMT up 5.3% from a year ago

·         ODA said French soft wheat crop is 67% good to excellent as of June 4th vs. the start of April condition of 56% good to excellent

·         ODA said French average soft wheat yield at 7.21 TPH vs. 5 year average of 7.22 TPH

·         ODA expects 2013 French soft wheat crop to be the largest since 2009

·         Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 14th Russia planted their spring crop on 30.4 MH up 503,100 hectares from a year ago

·         Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 14th Russia planted corn on 2.3 MH up 394,900 hectares from a year ago

·         Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 14th Russia planted rice on 184,100 hectares down 20,300 hectares from a year ago

·         Russia’s Ag Min said as of June 14th Russia planted sunflower on 6.7 MH up 558,100 hectares from a year ago

·         India plans to sell 17.5 MMT of grain from State reserves this year .

·         July corn closed above the 100 day moving average of 667 ¾ . July corn settled at 673 ¼

·         Dec corn closed above the 50 day moving average of 541 ¼ . Dec corn settled at 550 ½

·         Nov beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1291 ½. Nov beans settled at 1289 ¾

·         July bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 4903. July bean oil settled at 4881

·         Dec bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 4822. Dec bean oil settled at 4758

·         Argentine farmers strike continues through tomorrow, then Argentina is on holiday Thursday and Friday

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT

·         Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting

o   Crude a draw of 500K

o   Gas a build of 500K

o   Distillates a build of 925K

·         Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

·         Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with their US 2013 acreage estimates . Previously

o   US corn acreage estimated at 96.827 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA

o   US bean acreage estimated at 78.286 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA

o   US Spring wheat acreage (other than durum) estimated at 12.4 MA vs. USDA estimate of 12.7 MA

o   US Durum wheat acreage estimated at 1.901 MA vs. USDA estimate of 1.75 MA

o   US all cotton acreage estimated at 10.2 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA

o   Rice acreage estimated at 2.6 MA unchanged from USDA estimate

·         FOMC 2 day policy meeting continues through tomorrow. Feds to make an announcement tomorrow

·         Open outcry option players

o   Tenco bought 1,000 July bean 1540 calls at 8 ½ -8 ¾

o   ADM bought 1,000 July corn 660 calls at 17.

o   Tenco bought 2,000 Sept corn 650 calls at 11-11 ¼

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Sept corn 550 puts sold the 1,000 Aug 550 puts at 5 ¾ debit

o   FI bought 10,000 Sept short dated 500/480 put spread at 4 5/8

o   Tenco bought 2,000 Dec wheat 1070 calls at 1.

o   JP Morgan sold 1,200 Sept wheat 650 puts at 12

o   RJO sold 100 July meal 450 calls at 9.00

o   RJO sold 100 July meal 460 calls at 4.00

o   ADM sold 100 Aug bean oil 49 puts at 110

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 2K

·         Corn bought 10K

·         Beans bought 3K

·         Meal bought 2K

·         Bean oil sold 1K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

N vol 30 670 str 15 ½-17

Q vol 34 590 str 51 ½-53

U vol 32 590 str 65-66 ½

Z vol 28 ¼ 550 str 81-82

H vol 26 560 str 94-96

 

Beans

N vol 18 1510 str 22-23 ½

Q vol 22 ¾ 1440 str 83 ½-85 ½

U vol 23 ¼ 1340 str 105 ½-108

X vol 22 3/7 1280 str 137 ½ -140

F vol 20 ¾ 1300 str 154-157 ½

H vol 19 ¼ 1300 str 160-164

K vol 18 ¾ 1300 str 170-175

 

Wheat

N vol 24 ½ 690 str 12-14

Q vol 26 ¼ 700 str 45-47

U vol 25 ¼ 700 str 60-62

Z vol 25 710 str 92-94

H vol 23 ½ 720 str 109-111

N vol 22 740 str 125-135

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 19 ½ 800 str 10-15

U vol 21 780 str 52-58

Z vol 21 790 str 83-92

H vol 20 800 str 93-108

 

KC wheat

N vol 19 ½ 720 str 12-15

U vol 24 720 str 57-63

Z vol 23 740 str 87-94

H vol 21 ½ 750 str 102-112

 

Meal

N vol 29 450 str 9.50-12

Q vol 28 420 str 30-32

U vol 27.75 400 str 37-39

V vol 27.25 380 str 40-41

Z vol 26.5 380 str 51.5-53

F vol 24.25 380 str 52.5-55

 

Bean oil

N vol 17 49 str 55-65

Q vol 17.25 49 str 205-220

U vol 17.5 48.5 str 275-300

V vol 17.5 48 str 325-350

Z vol 17.5 47.5 str 415-440

F vol 17.25 47.5 str 450-490

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg