From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 6/04/13

 

News

·         Drew Lerner midday forecast said “second week outlook suggests less opportunity for better US planting”

·         Oil World

o   Estimated 2013 global biodiesel production at 24.4 MMT up 1.0 MMT from 2012

o   Estimated 2013 EU biodiesel production at 9.6 MMT vs. 9.4 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated 2013 German biodiesel production at 2.6 MMT vs. 2.53 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated 2013 France biodiesel production at 2.05 MMT vs. 2.03 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated 2013 US biodiesel production at 3.9 MMT  vs. 3.3 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated 2013 Argentine biodiesel production at 1.75 MMT vs. 2.46 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated July – Sept global soymeal imports at 5.7 MMT up 10% from a year ago

·         Dr. Cordonnier’s Weekly Report

o   Estimated 2013 US corn yield at 153.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 155.0 BPA

o   Estimated 2013 US corn crop at 13.47 BB

o   Estimated 2013 US bean yield at 43.5 BPA vs. previous estimate of 43.7 BPA

o   Estimated 2013 US bean crop at 3.34 BB

o   Said 1.5 MA of corn will not be planted and it may go as high as 3.0 MA of corn not planted

o   Said half of the unplanted corn acres will go to beans and half will go to prevent planting

o   Estimated 2013 US bean area at 77.87 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA

o   Estimated 2013 US corn area at 95.78 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3

o   Estimated 2013 Brazilian bean crop at 81.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated 2013 Brazilian corn crop at 76.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated 2013 Argentine bean crop at 50.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated 2013 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         TALK/RUMOR from yesterday China canceled 2-4 Brazilian bean cargoes

·         EU Commission estimated the EU 27 2013 wheat crop at 127.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 129.7 MMT and vs. 123.8 MMT in 2012

·         EU Commission estimated the EU 27 2013 barley crop at 56.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.2 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 54.2 MMT

·         EU Commission estimated the EU 27 2013 corn crop at 66.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 65.3 MMT and vs. 58.3 MMT in 2012

·         France has received formal request from Egypt for assistance with wheat imports, France is considering the matter said French official sources –Reuters

·         Egypt requested assistance with grain storage and easier payment terms for wheat imports said French official sources – Reuters

·         Manitoba, Canada grain planting is 80-95% complete

·         South Korea seeks 78,089 tons of Chinese origin rice for Aug-Dec shipment

·         Sudan Ag Min said Sudan needs to import 1.5 MMT of wheat annually

·         Sudan Ag Min estimated Sudan’s wheat consumption at 2.0 MMT

·         Rains in eastern Australia, Russia, and the Ukraine

·         Today was the first day of the Deutsche Bank roll. 4 days remain. Rolling long July 2013 positions into July 2014. On the screen 7,086 contracts traded all day between 59 under to 55 under

·         Dec corn closed below the 100 day moving average of 555 ½ . Dec corn settled at 553.

·         July wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 704 ½ . July wheat settled at 709

·         Dec wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 727 ¼ . Dec wheat settled at 731 ¾

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT

·         Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting

o   Crude a draw of 800K

o   Gas a build of 1.0 MB

o   Distillates a build of 1.4 MB

·         Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

·         Open outcry option players

o   Tenco bought 1,000 July bean 1450/1400 put spreads at 3 7/8 -4 ½

o   Rosenthal bought 2,000 Nov 900 bean puts and sold 1,000 Nov bean 1000 puts at 1 ¼ credit

o   Rosenthal bought 500 Nov 1340 bean calls and sold 1,000 Nov 1200 puts at ½ debit and sold 424 Nov futures at 1310

o   Macquarie bought 1,000 July corn 660 puts at 13 ¾

o   New Edge bought 2,000 Dec corn 450 puts and sold 4,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 2 ½ debit

o   New Edge  bought 2,000 Dec corn 420 puts and sold 4,000 Dec corn 400 puts at 1 ¼ credit

o   XFA bought 2,500 Dec corn 450/400 put spreads at 5 3/8

o   ADM bought 2,500 Short dated July corn 570/550 put spreads at 11 ¼-13

o   Macquarie bought 1,200 July 690 calls at 3 7/8 and sold 240 July futures at 657

o   ABN bought 800 Dec wheat 800 calls at 27  tied to futures at 733 ½

o   JP Morgan bought 1,500 July wheat 660 puts at 1 ½

o   ABN bought 300 July meal 450 puts sold 300 Dec meal 450 calls at 1.00

o   JP Morgan bought 1,200 Dec bean oil 50 calls at 145

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 1K

·         Corn bought 2K

·         Beans sold 4K

·         Meal sold 1K

·         Bean oil sold 1K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

N vol 24 ½ 660 str 28-29

Short dated N vol 28 ¼ 550 str 27-28

Q vol 31 ¾ 585 str 55-56 ½

U vol 31 ½ 585 str 68-69 ½

Short dated U vol 31 ½ 550 str 64-66

Z vol 28 ¼ 550 str 84-85

H vol 26 560 str 97-99

Beans

N vol 20 ¾ 1530 str 55-56 ½

Q vol 22 ¼ 1450 str 97 ½-99 ½

U vol 22 ¾ 1360 str 115-117 ½

X vol 21 ¾ 1320 str 141 ½-144

F vol 20 ¼ 1320 str 157-161

H vol 19 1320 str 165 ½-170

K vol 18 ¾ 1320 str 178-183

N vol 18 1320 str 184-190

Wheat

N vol 22 ½ 710 str 28-29

Q vol 26 720 str 56-58

U vol 25 ¾ 720 str 69-72

Z vol 25 730 str 99-102.

H vol 23 ½ 750 str 117-120

K vol 23 760 str 129-133

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 19 ½  820 str 24-30

U vol 24 ½ 810 str 63-72

Z vol 23 ½  820 str 95-105

H vol 22 ½ 830 str 105-125

No KC wheat info today

 

Meal

N vol 25.5 450 str 21-22.5

Q vol 25.75 430 str 33.5-35

U vol 25.5 410 str 39-41

V vol 25 390 str 42-44

Z vol 24.25 390 str 51-53

F vol 23 390 str 53-56

Bean oil

N vol 17.5 48.5 str 140-155

Q vol 17.75 48.5 str 250-270

U vol 17.75 48.5 str 310-330

V vol 17.75 48 str 360-370

Z vol 17.75 48 str 445-470

F vol 17.25 48 str 475-505

Crush quotes

 

               OPEN             CLOSE

JLY          3-4                   1-1.5

AUG      27-29              27-28

SEP         72-73             71-72

OCT        73.5-74.5      73-74

DEC        68-68.5          66.5-67

JAN        63-64.5          63-64

MCH      62-65             63-64.5

MAY       62-65             62-63.5

Crush players

 

None

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg