From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Oil World estimated China’s July bean imports at 7.0 MMT (record)  In July 2012 China imported 5.87 MMT and in June 2013 China imported a record 6.93 MMT
  • Oil World said China’s soybean stocks will fall to a 4 year low of 8.0 MMT at the end of July vs. 11.8 MMT a year ago
  • Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 284.22 MMT up 6.8% from ‘12/13
  • Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global bean consumption at 270.9 MMT
  • Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global meal feed at 186.9 MMT up 4.2% from a year ago
  • Oil World estimated ‘13/14 global meal consumption at 186.5 MMT
  • Indonesia Palm Oil Producers said Indonesia exported 1.62 MMT of palm oil in June down 11% from May
    • Indonesia exported 404,502 tons of palm oil to India down 32% from May
    • Indonesia exported 170,570 tons of palm oil to China down 9% from May
  • Japan seeks 112,176 tons of milling wheat for Aug/Oct shipment Breakdown
    • 23,392 tons of HRW US wheat
    • 25,579 tons of Dark Northern spring US wheat
    • 36,420 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
    • 26,785 tons of Australian white wheat
  • Hearing Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his estimate for 2013 US corn yield unchanged at 153.0 BPA
  • Hearing Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his estimate for 2013 US bean yield unchanged at 42.0 BPA
  • Indian Farm Minister says crops doing well and grain exports to continue.
  • A storm with strong winds, heavy rain and hail damaged crops in southwestern Manitoba, according to the most recent weekly crop report from the government of the Western Canadian province.-from Reuters
    • Storm damage ranges from light to severe, with assessments continuing for next few days.
    • Crops advancing elsewhere with good growing conditions.
    • Canola’s crop stages range from bolting to 90 percent flowering. Spring cereals range from early flag leaf to finished flowering.
  • Russia’s Ag Min said Krasnodar area (largest Black Sea farm area) has complete 2013 wheat harvest . They harvested 7.1 MMT of winter wheat vs. 3.4 MMT a year ago with an average yield of 5.2 TPH vs. 4.2 MMT a year ago
  • GFS model got wetter for next week at midday
  • Nov beans closed above the 200 day moving average of 1283 ¾. Nov beans settled at
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
    • Crude a draw of 1.875 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.95 MB
    • Distillates a build of 650K
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
  • G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bankers meet on 7/19-7/20
  • Based on a Reuters poll of 15 analysts . 2013 Canadian crop estimates – Stats Can comes out on Aug 21st with their crop report
    • All wheat average estimate 29.7 MMT , range of estimates are 27.4-30.0 MMT. Vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 29.4 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 26.3 MMT
    • Durum wheat average estimate 5.0 MMY, range of estimates are 4.8-5.1 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 4.9 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 4.5 MMT
    • Canola average estimate 15.0 MMT , range of estimates are 14.6-15.3 MMT. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 14.1 MMT and Stats Can 5 year average of 13.2 MMT
    • Oats average estimate 3.2 MMT , range of estimates 3.0-3.3 MMT vs. Ag Can estimate on June 14th of 3.2 MMT and vs. Stats Can 5 year average of 3.1 MMT

 

Open Outcry Option Players

 

Corn:

Tenco sold 1000 Z 580 calls

Tenco bot 500 U 550 straddles

ADM bot 1000 Z 500-550 call spreads

Knight bot 1000 Z 380 puts

ADM sold 500 Z 530 puts/sold 275 CZ

ADM sold 500 Z 500 puts/sold 200 CZ

RJO bot 500 Q 550 puts

RJO bot 500 Q 540 puts

JPM sold 500 Z 580 calls

ABN sold 500 Z 450 put/550 call strangles

 

Beans:

ABN bot 3000 X 1220 puts/sold 1500 X 1300 puts

Rand bot 1000 X 1240 puts

Mizuho sold 1000 X 1260 puts/sold 600 SX

Mizuho bot 2000 V 1400 calls/sold 360 SX

Rosenthal bot 2500 X 1400 calls

RJO sold 1300 X 1400 calls

ADM bot 1000 X 1300 calls

Macquarie bot 600 Q 1440 puts/bot 120 SQ

Tenco bot 500 X 1220-1100 put spreads

Tenco sold 400 Q 1450-1500 call spreads

JPM sold 400 X 1100 puts

 

Wheat:

JPM bot 300 U 710 call/630 put strangles

Rosenthal bot 300 Z 650 puts

 

Meal:

FCS bot 500 U 410-440 call spreads/sold 500 U 440-410 put spreads

ADM bot 200 Q 455 puts/sold 200 Z 360 puts

 

Oil:

JPM bot 150 U 45 puts

ABN sold 150 Q 45 ½-45 put spreads

ABN sold 150 Q 47-48 ½ call spreads

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat even
  • Corn bought 7K
  • Beans bought 8K
  • Meal bought 4K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Crush Quotes

 

Open                                Closes

Aug        48.5-50.0                              54-57

Sep        100.5-105.0                         101-105

Oct         71.0-72.0                              71-74

Dec        64.25-64.5                            66-67

Jan         62.5-63.75                            61-65

Mch       64.0-65.25                           66-67

May       64.0-65.5                              66-66.5

July        64.5-67.0                              66-67

 

Crush Player

 

ABN sold 150 Aug at 53-55

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg