From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Weekly US export inspections report came out today at 10 am CDT
    • Wheat at 25.589 MB expecting 17-25 MB
    • Corn at 8.205 MB expecting 9-15 MB
    • Beans at 2.465 MB expecting 2-6 MB
    • Grain.gov.cn said China’s palm oil stocks at ports are at 1.15 MMT down 20,000 tons from a week ago
    • Macquarie keeps their new crop corn price forecast unchanged at $4.50
    • Macquarie said prices may fall below $4.50 when harvest begins in October/November
    • Safras e Mercado South American ‘12/13 bean crop estimates
      • Estimated Brazil’s at 82.336 MMT
      • Estimated Argentina’s at 49.1 MMT
      • Estimated Paraguay’s at 9.367 MMT
      • Estimated Bolivia’s at 2.544 MMT
      • Estimated Uruguay’s at 3.0 MMT
      • Estimated total South America bean crop at 146.347 MMT vs. 117.456 MMT a year ago
      • Safras e Mercado said Brazil has sold 78% of their ‘12/13 bean crop vs. 92% a year ago
      • AgRural said Brazil has sold 20% of their ‘13/14 bean crop (which is planted in September) vs. 5% sold at the end of May and vs. 52% sold a year ago
      • Cepea said Brazil corn harvest is picking up due to dry weather
      • Australian government estimated ‘13/14 southern Australia’s wheat crop at 4.3 MMT
      • Australian government estimated ’13/14 southern Australia’s all grain crop at 7.6 MMT
      • Union workers in Brazil canceled planned strike for Wednesday July 10th .
      • Brazil port workers still expected to hold a nationwide strike on Thursday July 11th
      • German canal workers on strike
      • Russia’s Ag Min said as of 7/08/13 Russia has harvested 12.1 MMT of wheat up 4.7% from a year ago on 3.7 MH (14.7% complete) with an average yield of 3.28 TPH vs. 2.67 TPH a year ago
      • Russia’s Ag Min said as of 7/08 Russia has harvested 1.7MMT of barley up 1.2% from a year ago on 400,000 hectares (4.8% complete) with an average yield of 3.99 TPH vs. 3.24 TPH a year ago
      • Russia’s Ag Min said as of 7/08 Russia has harvested 14.4 MMT of grains up 6.1% from a year ago on 4.5 MH (9.9% complete) with an average yield of 3.19 TPH vs. 2.59 TPH a year ago
      • Algeria bought 150K tons of optional origin barley for Aug Sept shipment
      • Algeria seeks 50K optional origin milling wheat for Sept shipment
      • Iran seeks 350K tons of optional origin milling wheat for July/Aug shipment
      • Kansas wheat harvest report- Farmer in Winona (northwest Kansas) said his harvest was the worst in 40 years and saw yields of only 6-20 BPA
      • Pakistan has bought 250K tons of Black Sea origin wheat over the past 2 weeks for August Sept shipment
      • Dec meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 364.90. Dec meal settled at 368.20
      • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CDT (delayed due to US holiday last week)
      • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn and bean conditions to increase by 1-2% from a week ago
      • Argentina will be on holiday tomorrow.
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their monthly Brazilian crop report previously
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean crop at 81.3 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean exports at 36.78 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 meal exports at 14.93 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 bean oil exports at 1.75 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn crop at 78.5 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 corn exports at 15.0 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘13/14 wheat crop at 5.56 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 rice crop at 11.92 MMT
    • Estimated Brazil ‘12/13 cotton crop at 326,000 tons
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT
  • I will have estimates for Thursday’s USDA report in my morning letter tomorrow .
  • Open outcry option players
    • Tenco bought 1,000 Sept short dated beans 1160 puts and sold 250 Sept short dated beans 1260 puts at 9-10 credit (1×4 ratio)
    • Tenco bought 750 Nov bean 1160 puts at 22 3/8 -22 ½
    • Tenco bought 1,200 Sept short dated bean 1200 puts and sold 400 Sept short dated 1260 puts at 12 debit (1×3 ratio)
    • New Edge bought 1,000 Nov bean 1300/1340 call spreads at 10 ¾
    • ABN bought 1,000 Nov bean 1260/1280 call spreads at 8 ½ and sold 60 Nov futures at 1251
    • Tenco bought 1,250 Aug bean 1500 calls at 9 7/8-10 ¾
    • ABN sold 2,000 Dec corn 500/550 call spreads at 16 5/8
    • JP Morgan bought 2,500 Dec corn 600 calls at 8 ¼-8 7/8
    • Macquarie sold 1,000 Sept corn 580 calls at 7 ½ and bought 190 Sept futures at 533
    • RJO sold 1,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 33 ½-34
    • RJO sold 1,000 Sept short dated 500/470 put spreads and bought 1,000 Sept short dated corn 560 calls at 8 ¼ credit
    • Macquarie sold 2,000 Sept corn 490/485 put spreads at 7/8 and sold 60 Sept futures at 533
    • Tenco bought 500 March wheat 650 puts at 36 -36 ½
    • EDF Mann bought 500 Dec/March wheat CSO even calls at 2 ½-3
    • FI sold 1,400 Sept wheat 680 calls at 19 ¼-20 ¾
    • GFI sold 1,500 Sept wheat 710 calls at 9 ½-10 1/8
    • FC Stone bought 300 Sept meal 470 calls at 75
    • ADM sold 700 March meal 380 puts at 33-34 and sold 399 Dec futures at 362.00
    • New Edge bought 550 Aug bean oil 47/46 put spreads at 40

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 1K
  • Corn bought 9K
  • Beans bought 7K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

Q vol 28 ¼ 530 str 26 ½-28

U vol 28 ¼ 530 str 42 ¼-44

V vol 28 500 str 50-51

Z vol 27 ¾ 500 str 67 ½-68 ½

H vol 26 510 str 87-89

K vol 26 520 str 94 ½-96 ½

 

Beans

Q vol 19 1450 str 49 ½-51 ½

U vol 20 ¾ 1300 str 75-77 ½

V vol 20 ½ 1250 str 90-94

X vol 20 ½ 1260 str 111-114

F vol 19 ¾ 1260 str 134-138

H vol 19 ¼ 1240 str 147-151

K vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 162-168

N vol 19 ¼ 1200 str 165-172

X vol 17 1200 str 181-189

 

Wheat

Q vol 24 660 str 27-29

U vol 25 ½ 660 str 46-49

Z vol 25 ¾ 670 str 83-86

H vol 25 690 str 106-110

K vol 24 ½ 690 str 117-121

N vol 24 690 str 125-131

 

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 23 ¾ 760 str 47-54

Z vol 22 ¾ 770 str 80-87

H vol 22 790 str 97-109

K vol 21

 

KC wheat

Q vol 23 690 str 27-30

U vol 24 ¼ 690 str 46-49

Z vol 24 ½ 710 str 84-86

 

Meal

Q vol 24 440 str 19-21

U vol 25.25 400 str 29-30.5

V vol 24.5 370 str 32.5-34.50

Z vol 23.75 370 str 42.5-45

F vol 22.5 370 str 45-47.

H vol 21.25 370 str 49-53

 

Bean oil

Q vol 17 47 str 130-150

U vol 17.25 46.5 215-235

V vol 17 46 str 265-285

Z vol 17 46 str 365-385

F vol 16.75 46 str 400-425

H vol 16.75 46 str 460-500

 

Crush quotes

 

Open                     Close

July                                        traded at 19 mid-morning

Aug        31.5-32                 33-33.5

Sep        83-85                     87-88

Oct         70.25-71.5           69-69.5

Dec        672-62.5               63-63.5

Jan         59.5-60.5              59-60

Mch       61-63                     64-64.5

May       63-65.5                 64-64.5

 

Crush players

 

ABN bought 100 Oct at 70

 

ABN bought 50 Dec at 61.5

 

 

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg