From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap

News

·         South Korea MFG bought 124K tons of optional origin corn possibly Black Sea origin for Nov shipment

·         Based on a Reuters poll ‘13/14 Russian, Ukrainian, and Kazakhstan wheat exports estimated at 32.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         Based on a Reuters poll ‘13/14 Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan wheat crop estimated at 89.2 MMT down 19% from previous estimate and up 43% from ‘12/13 crop

·         EIA Monthly Report said US biodiesel output was 106 million gallons in April (highest since Dec 2011) vs. 98 million in March . 423 million pounds of bean oil was used in April vs. 424 M pounds in March . USDA estimated 4.9 billion pounds of bean oil will be used for biodiesel in ‘12/13

·         Dec corn closed below the 50 day moving average of 542 ¾. Dec corn settled at 538 ½

·         Tomorrow is end of month and the end of the quarter

·         Tomorrow is first notice day for July futures . Expectations for deliveries tonight are

o   Beans 0

o   Meal 0

o   Corn 0

o   Wheat 0-200

o   KC Wheat 0-500

o   Bean oil 500-1,500

·         USDA Quarterly Stocks and Acreage report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT – see below for estimates

·         Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT

·         Open outcry option players

o   Tenco bought 2,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at 11 ½-11 ¾

o   New Edge bought 1,000 Nov bean 1100 puts and sold 2,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at a ¼ credit

o   New Edge bought 1,000 Sept bean 1100/1200 call spreads and sold 1,000 Sept short dated bean 1100/1200 call spreads at 6 ½ debit

o   JP Morgan bought 1,250 Nov bean 1300 calls at 53 ½-54

o   Jefferies bought 1,000 Nov bean 1140/1240 put spreads at 31

o   FI bought 10,000 Sept short dated corn 480/450 put spreads at 4 ¾-4 7/8

o   Rosenthal bought 1,000 Aug corn 575 straddles at 44

o   Tenco bought 2,000 Dec corn 560 calls at 31 7/8-32 and sold 880 Dec futures at 538

o   ADM sold 1,500 Dec corn 530 straddles at 83-83 ½

o   ADM sold 2,000 Aug corn 570 straddles at 45- 46 ½

o   ADM bought 850 Sept corn 530 puts and sold 1,700 Sept short dated corn 490 puts at 5 ½

o   ADM bought 1,200 Sept wheat 800 calls at 3 ¼

o   FI bought 600 Aug meal 450/480 call spreads at 6.25

o   Tenco sold 500 Dec bean oil 48/53 call spreads at 70-75

o   Tenco bought 500 Dec bean oil 53 calls at 30

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 1K

·         Corn sold 4K

·         Beans sold 2K

·         Meal bought 2K

·         Bean oil sold 1K

Estimates for Tomorrow’s USDA Quarterly Stocks and 2013 US Acreage Report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

 

Estimate for US quarterly grain stocks as of June 1st

·         Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .750 BB, range of estimates are .732-.781 BB. June 1st 2012 wheat stocks were .743 BB and March 1st 2013 wheat stocks were 1.234 BB

·         Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.856 BB, range of estimates are 2.761-3.000 BB . June 1st 2012 corn stocks were 3.148 BB and March 1st 2013 corn stocks were 5.399 BB.

·         Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .441 BB, range of estimates are .413-.490 BB . June 1st 2012 bean stocks were .667 BB and March 1st 2013 bean stocks were .999 BB

 

Estimates for 2013 US Acreage

  • Corn (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 95.340 MA, range of estimates are 94.2-96.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 97.282 MA and 2012 US final corn acreage was 97.155 MA
  • Beans (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 78.024 MA , range of estimates are 77.1-79.24 MA. USDA March estimate was 77.126 MA and 2012 US final bean acreage was 77.198 MA
  • All wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.751 MA, range of estimates are 55.2-56.4 MA. USDA March estimate was 56.44 MA and 2012 US final all wheat acreage was 55.736 MA
  • Spring wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.117 MA, range of estimates are 11.7-12.7 MA. USDA March estimate was 12.701 MA and 2012 US final spring wheat acreage was 12.289 MA
  • Durum (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.657 MA, range of estimates are 1.55-1.80 MA. USDA March estimate was 1.751 MA and 2012 US final durum acreage was 2.123 MA

Closing vols and ATM straddles


Corn

Q vol 34 ½ 570 str 44-45 ½

U vol 33 ½ 570 str 60-61

V vol 31 ¾ 540 str 65-67

Z vol 30 540 str 82-83

H vol 29 550 str 101 ½-103 ½

Beans

Q vol 22 ½ 1430 str 72 ½-73 ½

U vol 22 ¾ 1320 str 93 ½-95 ½

V vol 22 ½ 1280 str 109 ½-112

X vol 22 ¼ 1280 str 129 ½-132

F vol 20 ¾ 1280 str 148 ½-151 ½

H vol 20 1280 str 161-165

K vol 19 ¼ 1280 str 175-180

N vol 18 ¼ 1280 str 179-185

Wheat

Q vol 27 ½ 680 str 42-43 ½

U vol 26 ½ 680 str 55-57

Z vol 25 ¼ 690 str 90 ½-92

H vol 24 ¼ 700 str 113-116

K vol 24 ¼ 710 str 124-127

N vol 23 ½ 720 str 131-135

Minneapolis wheat

U vol 23 780 str 53-61

Z vol 22 ½ 790 str 85-94

H vol 22 ½ 810 str 107-117

KC Wheat

U vol 25 700 str 55-58

Z vol 24 720 str 87-91

H vol 25 ½ 740 str 110-118

K vol 21 750 str 114-124

Meal

Q vol 28.5 440 str 29-31

U vol 27.5 410 str 35.5-37.5

V vol 26.25 390 str 39.5-41.5

Z vol 25.5 390 str 50-52

F vol 24 390 str 51.5-53.5

H vol 22.25 380 str 53.5-56

Bean oil

Q vol 18.5 46.5 str 190-205

U vol 18.25 46 str 255-275

V vol 18 45.5 str 305-330

Z vol 18 45 str 395-420

F vol 17.5 45 str 430-460

H vol 17.5 45 str 495-520

Crush quotes

 

                OPEN           CLOSE

JLY          1-3                 15-18

AUG      35-36.5         35-37

SEP        81.5-82.5      80-82.5

OCT       78.5-80          77.5-80

DEC       72.5-73          73.5-74

JAN       66.5-68          66-68

MCH     65.5-66          66-67

MAY     65-66.5          65-66.5

Crush players

 

Knight sold 50 Aug crush at 37.5

Tenco sold 170 Aug crush at 37

Oil Share Player

 

Rosenthal sold 466 Dec oil/382 Dec meal at 36.3-36.95%

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg