From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • NOPA – April oil yield was 11.85 vs. 11.94 in March and  vs. 11.54 a year ago
  • Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese estimates
    • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 bean imports at a record high 66.0 MMT
    • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 bean oil imports at 1.10 MMT
    • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 meal imports at 1.30 MMT
    • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 rapeseed imports at 3.0 MMT
    • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 rapeseed oil imports at 1.30 MMT
    • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 rapeseed meal imports at 100K tons
    • MOC (Ministry of Commerce) said China imported 4.285 MMT of beans in April
    • MOC estimated May bean imports at 6.0175 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0159 MMT
    • MOC said China imported 79,500 tons of bean oil in April
    • MOC said China imported 548,000 tons of palm oil in April vs. estimate of 479,700
    • MOC estimated May palm oil imports at 161K tons vs. previous estimate of 92,300
    • MOC said China imported 413K tons of rapeseed in April vs. estimate of 353,400 tons
    • MOC estimated May rapeseed imports at 248,700 tons vs. estimate of 63,800
    • MOC said China imported 116,300 tons of rapeseed oil in April vs. estimate of 283K
    • MOC estimated China’s May rapeseed oil imports at 51,600 vs. previous estimate of 18K
    • NDRC said until May 8th China’s hog/feed ratio is at 5.32:1 , which has increased for 3 straight weeks but still below profit line.
  • Brazilian dockworkers strike is over for now.
  • Deere forecasted ‘13/14 wheat price at $6.90 vs. previous forecast of $8
  • Deere forecasted ‘13/14 corn price at $5.00 vs. previous forecast of $5.25
  • Deere forecasted ‘13/14 bean price at $11.75 vs. previous forecast of $12.50
  • Mosaic estimated 2013 US corn planting area at 95-96 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.82 MMT
  • France Agrimer estimates
    • ‘12/13 France soft wheat ending stocks estimated at 2.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.6 MMT and up 10% from ‘11/12
    • ‘12/13 France corn ending stocks estimated at 3.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.0 MMT up 28% from ‘11/12
  • DRV estimated Germany’s 2013 grain crop at 45.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 44.4 MMT and up .7% from 2012
    • 2013 wheat crop estimated at 23.8 MMT up 6.1% from 2012
    • 2013 corn crop estimated at 4.45 MMT down 19% from 2012
    • 2013 rapeseed crop estimated at 5.36 MMT up 12% from 2012
    • 2013 barley crop estimated at 9.99 MMT down 3.8% from 2012
  • UkrAgroConsult estimated 2013 Ukraine bean planted area at 1.5 MH up 79,000 hectares from 2012
  • UkrAgroConsult estimated 2013 Ukraine bean crop at 2.88 MMT
  • UkrAgroConsult estimated 2013 Russia bean planted area at 1.65 MH up 17,400 hectares from 2012
  • UkrAgroConsult estimated 2013 Russia’s bean crop at 2.15 MMT
  • Russia sold 41,718 tons of intervention grain making the total sold since October 23rd 3.189 MMT
  • ProAgro said between July 1st and May 11th Ukraine has exported 20.94 MMT of grain including 6.56 MMT of wheat , 12.34 MMT of corn, and 2.04 MMT of barley, vs. 18.69 MMT a year ago
  • Jordan canceled tender for 100K tons of feed barley
  • Japan bought 1,000 feed wheat and no feed barley via SBS tender for August shipment
  • July beans closed above the 100 day moving average of 1405. July beans settled at 1412 ¾
  • July corn closed below the 50 day moving average of 657. July corn settled at 650 ¾
  • July meal closed above the 100 day moving average of 409.70. July meal settled at 410.50
  • ECB president speaks tomorrow
  • US April CPI comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
    • Wheat 200-500K
    • Corn 200-550K
    • Beans 200-600K
    • Meal 25-150K
    • Bean oil 0-15K
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting +94 billion
  • Informa comes out Friday at 1030 am CDT with US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were
  • Open outcry option players – Very quiet on trading floor today
    • Macquarie bought 500 June corn 630 puts at 5 ½
    • ADM sold 2,000 Dec corn 600/650 call spreads at 9
    • Macquarie sold 1,000 July wheat 710 calls at 17-17 ¼ and bought 390 July futures at 693 ½
    • New Edge bought 2,000 July wheat 900 calls at a ¼
    • ADM sold 1,000 Aug bean oil 49 calls at 170
    • Corn acreage estimated at 97.753 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA
    • Bean acreage estimated at 78.457 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA
    • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.074 MA vs. USDA estimate of 56.4 MA
    • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.367 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA

 

Closing vols and ATM Straddles

 

Corn

M vol 27 ½ 650 str 23-24

N vol 27 ¾ 650 str 46-47

Q vol 32 560 str 63 ½-65 ½

U vol 31 ½ 560 str 7374

Z vol 28 ¼ 530 str 85 ½-87

H vol 25 ¾ 540 str 97-99

 

Beans

M vol 18 ½ 1410 str 33-35

N vol 19 1410 str 68 ½-69 ½

Q vol 21 1340 str 99-101

U vol 21 1270 str 109-111

X vol 20 1200 str 127-129

F vol 19 1220 str 145-148

 

Wheat

M vol 27 690 str 24-26

N vol 27 ½ 690 str 47-49

Q vol 28 ¼ 700 str 71-72

U vol 28 ¼ 700 str 81-84

Z vol 26 ¼ 720 str 107-109

H vol 24 ¼ 740 str 124-128

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 22 800 str 39-47

U vol 23 ½ 800 str 71-79

Z vol 23 810 str 99-108

H vol 21 1/02 820 str 105-125

 

KC Wheat

N vol 25 ½ 750 str 43-48

U vol 26 760 str 80-86

Z vol 25 770 str 108-116

H vol 24 790 str 130-140

 

Meal

M vol 23 410 str 11-13

N vol 22.5 410 str 23.5-25

Q vol 23.25 390 str 32-34

U vol 23.25 360 str 35-37

V vol 22.5 340 str 36-38

Z vol 22 340 str 42.5-44.5

F vol 21.25 340 str 44-47

 

Bean oil

M vol 18.25 49.5 str 105-129

N vol 18.5 49.5 str 220-235

Q vol 18.5 49 str 305-325

U vol 18.5 49 str 360-380

V vol 18.25 48.5 str 395-425

Z vol 18.25 48.5 str 485-515

F vol 17.75 48 str 500-540

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

JLY            36-36.5          33.5-34

AUG         53-54             51.5-52.5

SEP           73.5-74          73-74

OCT          72.5-74.5      74-74.5

DEC          66-67              68-68.5

JAN          60-62              62-63

MCH        60.5-62          61-62

MAY        60-61              61-62

 

Crush players

 

ADM bought 400 July at 34.5-36

 

Tenco bought 200 July 33.5

 

FC Stone bought 200 July

 

Cunningham bought 10 Sept at 73

 

Cunningham sold 10 Oct at 74

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg