From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 5/29/13

News

·         Midday weather wetter for Midwest

·         TALK/RUMOR China trying to sell back new crop US beans

·         Reuters headlines

o   29-May-2013 13:30 – U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE SAYS IT HAS FOUND MONSANTO-DEVELOPED GENETICALLY MODIFIED WINTER WHEAT ON OREGON FARM

o   29-May-2013 13:30 – NO VARIETIES OF GENETICALLY MODIFIED WHEAT ARE LEGAL FOR SALE IN U.S. -USDA

o   29-May-2013 13:30 – USDA SAYS INVESTIGATING SOURCE OF WHEAT SEED, WHICH IS RESISTANT TO GLYPHOSATE HERBICIDE

o   29-May-2013 13:30 – USDA SAYS INFORMED U.S. TRADING PARTNERS AND MAJOR MARKETS TODAY OF DISCOVERY OF UNAPPROVED WHEAT

o   29-May-2013 13:30 – MONSANTO ENDED FIELD TESTS OF ROUNDUP-READY GENETICALLY ENGINEERED WHEAT IN 2005

o   29-May-2013 13:30 – USDA SAYS U.S. FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION SAYS NO HUMAN HEALTH RISK FROM THE GENETICALLY ENGINEERED WHEAT

·         Citi Group raised their second quarter old crop bean price forecast to $14.35

·         Citi Group forecasted new crop corn price at $5 unchanged from previous forecast

·         Citi Group forecasted new crop bean price at $11.50-$11.75 unchanged from previous forecast

·         Brazil’s Secretary of Agriculture said Brazil may buy up to 1 MMT of domestic corn for stocks

·         CONAB said they may buy 2.0 MMT of domestic corn for stocks

·         Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s 2013 corn exports at 22.6 MMT vs. 19.8 MMT in 2012

·         Agroconsult estimated 2013 Brazil corn ending stocks at 10.3 MMT

·         Paraguay grains exporting chamber said they harvested a record high 9.3 MMT of soybeans vs. 4.3 MMT a year ago

·         Emerald Group said dry Australian weather at the start of this season could hurt crops especially canola crops

·         SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 50.0 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 38 MMT

·         SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 grain exportable surplus at 19.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.0 MMT

·         SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 wheat exportable surplus at 13-15 MMT

·         SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 85-89 MMT vs. previous estimate of 84-89 MMT

·         SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘12/13 ending stocks at 9.4 MMT up 8% from previous estimate

·         Russia’s Ag Min to buy 3-5 MMT of corn and wheat for stocks

·         Analysts estimated Ukraine’s 2013 wheat crop at 20-21 MMT , 55% is feed wheat quality

·         Egypt FIHC bought 12K tons of optional origin sunflower oil for June/July shipment

·         Egypt FIHC bought 9K tons of local bean oil

·         Egypt’s Supply Minister said Egypt has harvested 3.057 MMT of wheat so far this year up 44.9% from a year ago

·         Egypt’s Supply Minister estimated Egypt’s 2013 wheat crop at 9-9.5 MMT

·         Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2013 wheat crop at 23.35 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 22.38 MMT

·         Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2013 rapeseed crop at 5.46 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 4.82 MMT

·         Toepfer estimated the UK 2013 wheat crop at 11.36 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 13.31 MMT

·         Toepfer estimated 2013 UK rapeseed crop at 1.88 MMT vs. 2.56

·         Toepfer estimated 2013 EU 28 wheat crop at 129.79 MMT vs. 125.43 MMT in 2012

·         Germany’s Stats Office 2013 planting area

o   Winter wheat area at 3.077 MH up 6.5% from 2012

o   Spring wheat area at 48,100 hectares down 70% from a year ago

o   Winter barley area at 1.23 MH up 13% from a year ago

o   Spring barley area at 355,900 hectares down 39% from a year ago

o   Corn area at 501,440 hectares down 4.7% from a year ago

o   Rapeseed area at 1,436 hectares up 10% from a year ago

·         Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for August shipment

·         Japan seeks undisclosed amount of French wheat for donation to Togo

·         Japan canceled SBS tender for 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for August shipment due to lack of buyers and sellers

·         Jordan made no purchase in tender for 100K feed barley and 150K milling wheat

·         India PEC tenders to sell 90K milling wheat for June/July shipment

·         Nov bean closed below the 200 day moving average of 1291. Nov beans settled at 1288 ½

·         Dec corn closed above the 100 day moving average of 556. Dec corn settled at 565 ¾

·         July bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 4953. July bean oil settled at 4863

·         Dec bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 4876. Dec bean oil settled at 4816

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT

·         Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT

·         US 1st quarter GDP comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT

·         Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting +88 B

·         Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 10 am CDT expecting

o   Crude a draw of 750K

o   Gas a draw of 650K

o   Distillates a build of 150K

·         Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CDT

·         Rogers roll begins tomorrow . Rolling long July futures forward.

·         Open outcry option players

o   Rand bought 1,200 July short dated bean 1280 calls at 26 and sold 628 Nov futures at 1282

o   ABN bought 2,000 Nov bean 1300/1340 call spreads at 15 ¼ -16

o   FI bought 1,000 July bean 1500 puts and sold 2,000 July bean 1460 puts at 1 ¼ -2 ¾ credit

o   New Edge sold 2,000 Sept corn 1300/1340 call spreads at 19 ¼ -19 ½

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Nov bean 1100 puts at 10 5/8 -10 ¾ and bought 110 Nov bean futures at 1280

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Nov bean 1200 puts at 31-31 1/8

o   Tenco sold 1,100 Nov bean 1120 puts at 12 ¾ -12 7/8 and sold 155 Nov beans at 1283

o   RJO sold 2,500 Sept corn 650 calls at 14 3/8 -14 ½

o   RJO sold 2,500 Dec corn 650 calls at 14-14 5/8

o   ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 700 calls and sold 1,000 Dec corn 450 puts at a ½ debit and sold 250 Dec futures at 554

o   Merrill Lynch bought 1,000 Dec corn 520 puts at 27 ¾ and bought 350 Dec futures at 551 ½

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn 540/480 put spreads at 21 ½

o   Macquarie bought 1,500 short dated July corn 550 straddles at 34-35

o   FI sold 1,000 July short dated corn 560 puts at 13 ½

o   FI sold 1,000 week 5 corn 665 puts at 5-5 ½

o   ADM sold 500 July wheat 720 calls at 8-8 ¼

o   ADM sold 600 July wheat 750 calls at 3-3 ¼

o   ABN bought 1,000 July wheat 660 puts at 4- 4 ¼

o   Jefferies bought 700 Oct meal 370 puts at 18.00

o   RJO bought 700 Dec meal 340 straddles at 53.00

o   Mizuho bought 500 July bean oil 53 calls at 7

o   Rosenthal sold 500 July bean oil 51 calls at 15

 

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 3K

·         Corn bought 8K

·         Beans sold 4K

·         Meal bought 2K

·         Bean oil sold 4K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

N vol 27 ½ 670 str 37-38 ½

Q vol 33 590 str 62 ½-64

U vol 33 590 str 75-76 ½

Z vol 29 ½ 570 str 92-93 ½

H vol 27 580 str 105-108

 

Beans

N vol 22 ½ 1500 str 68 ½-71

Q vol 22 ½ 1430 str 102-104.

U vol 21 ¼ 1330 str 108 ½-111

X vol 19 ¾ 1280 str 128-130 ½

F vol 18 ¾ 1300 str 145-148 ½

H vol 17 ¾ 1300 str 155 ½-159 ½

K vol 17 ¾ 1300 str 165 ½-170 ½

N vol 16 ¾ 1300 str 170-176

 

Wheat

N vol 25 ½ 700 str 36-38

Q vol 29 710 str 65-67

U vol 29 710 str 79-81

Z vol 26 ¾ 720 str 107-109

H vol 24 ¾ 740 str 121-125

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 23 820 str 33-41

U vol 24 810 str 70-79

Z vol 23 810 str 95-105

H vol 22 ½ 830 str 105-120

 

KC wheat

H vol 23 750 str 35-39

U vol 25 ½ 750 str 71-78

Z vol 25 770 str 109-112

H vol 24 790 str 124-131

 

Meal

N vol 27 450 str 25-27

Q vol 26 420 str 35-37

U vol 25.25 400 str 39-41

V vol 24.25 380 str 41-44

Z vol 23 380 str 48-51

F vol 22 380 str 50.5-52.5

 

Bean oil

N vol 17.5 48.5 str 160-180

Q vol 18 48.5 str 265-280

U vol 18 48.5 str 320-345

V vol 17.75 48.5 str 360-390

Z vol 17.75 48 str 450-475

F vol 17.25 48 str 480-510

 

Crush quotes

             OPEN             CLOSE

JLY        8-9.5              10.5-11.5

AUG     31.5-35         33-34.5

SEP        80-81            79-80

OCT      74-75.5         73.5-75

DEC       68-68.5        68-68.5

JAN       63-65            63.5-64.5

MCH     63-64            63-64

MAY     63.5-64         63-64

Crush players

 

ADM sold 100 July at 7-7.5

Rand sold 100 Dec at 68.25

Tenco sold 50 Aug at 33

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg