From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 5/21/13

News

·         Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese Crush Breakdown

o   For the week May 11-17 total crush volume totaled 1,117,300 tons up 4.74% from a week ago

o   For the week May 11-17 total crush capacity utilization at 43.74% up 1.98% from a week ago

o   Tianjin COFCO and Shinning Gold stopped crushing due to pipeline repairs

o   Tianjin Bunge stopped crushing due to lack of beans

o   October 1st 2012 – May 17th 2013 total crush volume at 36,567,600 tons down .97% from a year ago

o   January 1st – May 17th 2013 total crush volume at 21,005,020 tons up .91% from a year ago

o   As of May 11th total bean import stocks were at 4.0652 MMT up 5,300 tons from a week ago and vs. 5.566 MMT a year ago

o   Estimated May bean imports at 5.674 MMT

o   Estimated June bean imports at 7.8-8.0 MMT (record)

o   Estimated July bean imports at 6.5 MMT

o   Estimated August bean imports at 6.0 MMT

·         NBS (National Bureau of Statistics) said total Chinese 2012 grain acreage was 11.12 billion hectares up .57% from a year ago

·         NBS said 2012 China grain production was at 539.47 MMT up 3.87% from a year ago

·         NBS said 2012 China corn crop at 205.61 MMT up 12.83 MMT from 2011

·         NBS said 2012 China bean crop at 17.32 MMT down 1.76  M from 2011

·         NBS said 2012 oilseed acreage was at 13.93 MH up 750,000 tons from 2011

·         NBS said 2012 oilseed production was at 34.368 MMT up 1.3 MMT from 2011

·         NBS said 2012 rapeseed production was at 14.007

·         Ministry of Agriculture said China’s spring planting is delayed for 2 weeks in the northeast due to rain and snow

·         Ministry of Agriculture said 82.5% of the total grain crop is planted vs. 84.6% a year ago

·         Ministry of Agriculture said as of May 17th corn acreage in Heilongjiang (one of china’s biggest corn production areas) is at 101.43 MA up 2.54 MA from a year ago

·         TALK China is eyeing new crop US beans

·         Oil World estimates

o   China May bean imports estimated at 6.0 MMT vs. May 2012 imports of 5.3 MMT and vs. April of 3.977 MMT

o   China June bean imports estimated at 7.0 MMT vs. 5.6 MMT in June 2012

o   China July bean imports estimated at 6.2 MMT vs. 5.9 MMT in July 2012

o   China’s end of April bean stocks feel 5.5-6.0 MMT from a year ago

o   US ‘12/13 bean imports 32 MB (870K tons) from Canada and South America vs. 16.9 MB (460K) in ‘11/12

o   3 Brazilian bean cargoes were sold to the east coast (US) last week

o   ‘12/13 US bean ending stocks estimated at 110 MB (3 MMT) vs. 169.3 MB (4.61 MMT) in ‘11/12

·         Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘12/13 bean crop at 82.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 82.5 MMT

·         Russia’s Ag Min – Russia’s Planting progress as of 5/20/13

o   Wheat on 4.5 MH , 35% complete, down 1.6 MH from a year ago

o   Corn on 2.1 MH , 94% complete, up 474,000 H from a year ago

·         MARS (EU crop monitoring unit) estimates

o   EU 27 soft wheat yield estimated at 5.54 TPH vs. previous estimate of 5.63 TPH up 2.3% from a year ago and down 1.7% from 5 year average

o   Britain’s soft wheat yield estimated at 7.68 TPH vs. 8.02 TPH previous

o   Spain’s barley yield estimated at 3.36 TPH vs. previous estimate of 2.83 TPH and vs. 2.23 TPH a year ago

·         CWB said western Canada’s spring grain planting is 45-50% complete vs. 15% a week ago , still below average

·         Jordan made no purchase in tender for 150K milling wheat

·         Algeria seeks 50K optional origin milling wheat for August shipment

·         Dec meal closed below the 50 day moving average of 344.10. Dec meal settled at 343.30

·         June 2012 low in Dec corn was 511

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT

·         Effective today CME raises margins on corn, wheat, and KC wheat spreads

·         EU summit tomorrow in Brussels

·         Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting

o   Crude a draw of 800K

o   Gas a draw of 550K

o   Distillates a build of 1.0 MB

·         Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

·         Feds to read minutes from FOMC meeting on April 30 and May 1st at 2 pm CDT tomorrow

·         Open outcry option players

o   New Edge sold 2,000 March bean 1000/1100 call spreads at 82-82 ½

o   FI sold 1,000 Nov bean 1140 puts at 29-29 ½

o   Edf Mann bought 1,500 July bean 1500 calls at 15 ¾ -17 ¾

o   FI bought 800 August bean 1400/1500 call spreads at 26 ½ -26 ¾ sold 208 August beans at 1391

o   Bunge bought 1,000 July bean 1300 puts at 1 ¼

o   New Edge bought 1,000 July bean 1500 calls at 19

o   GFI bought 1,000 July bean 1400/13600 put spreads at 4 ½ -4 5/8

o   FI bought 1,000 Nov bean 1340 calls at 23 ½ -23 ¾ and sold 280 Nov futures at 1220

o   FC Stone bought 1,000 July bean 1550/1600 call spreads at 5 5/8 -6

o   Jefferies bought 11,000 Dec corn 520/530 call spreads at 4 1/8 – 4 ¼

o   Macquarie bought 4,000 Sept corn 600 calls at 13 ¼ sold 1,520 Sept futures at 539

o   FI sold 1,000 Sept short dated corn 500 puts at 25

o   New Edge sold 1,000 Sept corn 610 calls at 11 1/8 bought 240 Sept futures at 539

o   Tenco sold 2,000 Dec corn 580/500 put spreads at 50 ¾ -51

o   Tenco bought 3,000 Sept corn 650 calls at 6 3/8 -6 ½

o   RJO bought 1,000 Dec corn 520/540 call spreads at 8 1/8 – 8 ¼

o   Tenco bought 2,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 31 ¾

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn 480/450 put spreads at 9 ½

o   GFI bought 2,000 Dec corn 800/900 call spreads at 1 debit

o   Rosenthal bought 500 July wheat 770 calls at 1 ½

o   ABN sold 750 June wheat 670 puts at 4

o   New Edge bought 1,000 July wheat 900 calls at 1/8

o   FC Stone sold 300 July meal 390/430 call spread at 31.00

o   Rosenthal bought 350 Dec meal 360 calls and sold 350 Sept meal 370 calls at 5.75 credit

o   Jefferies bought 1,200 July meal 360/300 put spreads at 3.25

o   Jefferies bought 1,200 Sept meal 360/350 put spreads at 3.25

o   New Edge bought 450 July bean oil 49 puts sold 450 June bean oil 49 puts at 70 Debit

o   JP Morgan bought 1,100 Sept bean oil 49/53 call spreads and sold 1,100 Sept 47 puts at 50 debit

o   Tenco sold 1,000 July bean oil 48 puts at 45 and bought 230 July futures at 4925

o   JP Morgan sold 500 Jan bean oil 4850 straddles at 510

o   Tenco bought 500 Jan bean oil 4850 straddles at 510

o   Rand sold 20 Dec crush 70 calls at 5-6

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 1,500

·         Corn sold 7K

·         Beans bought 4K

·         Meal bought 1K

·         Bean oil bought 2K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 25 640 str 12-13 ½

N vol 26 640 str 38-39

Q vol 30 ½ 550 str 56 ½ -58 ½ .

U vol 30 550 str 56 ½ -58 ½

Z vol 26 ¾ 520 str 78-79 ½

H vol 25 530 str 91-92

Beans

M vol 19 1480 str 23-24 ½

N vol 18 ¾ 1480 str 65-67 ½

Q vol 20 ½ 1390 str 95 ½ -98

U vol 20 1280 str 103 ½ -106 ½

X vol 19 1220 str 120 ½-123

F vol 18 ½ 1220 str 137-141

H vol 18 1240 str 151-156

K vol 17 ¾ 1220 str 159-165

Wheat

M vol 23 680 str 13-15

N vol 24 680 str 38-39

Q vol 26 ¾ 690 str 62-64

U vol 26 ¾ 690 str 74-76

Z vol 25 700 str 99-100

H vol 23 ½ 720 str 115-117

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 21 820 str 37-45

U vol 22 ½ 800 str 72-80

Z vol 21 800 str 95-105

H vol 20 820 str 105-125

KC Wheat

N vol 22 ½ 740 str 37-41

U vol 25 750 str 74-80

Z vol 25 760 str 102-110

H vol 24 770 str 120-130

Meal

M vol 21 440 str 8-10

N vol 23 440 str 23.5-25.5

Q vol 23 410 str 31.5-33.5

U vol 23.5 380 str 35.5-37

V vol 22.75 350 str 36-37.5

Z vol 22 340 str 42-44

F vol 21.5 340 str 44-48

Bean oil

M vol 17.5 49.5 str 50-70

N vol 17.5 49.5 str 190-200

Q vol 18 49.5 str 285-305

U vol 18 49 str 340-365

V vol 17.75 48.5 str 380-405

Z vol 17.75 48.5 str 470-480

F vol 17.5 48 str 500-520

Crush Quotes

                OPEN           CLOSE

JLY        34-34.5          30.5-31.5

AUG     46.5-48          46-48

SEP        76.5-77          77-79.5

OCT       74.5-75          74.5-75

DEC        65-66             66.5-67

JAN        60-62             60-62.5

MCH      60.5-62          61-62

MAY      59-62              59-62

Crush Players

 

ABN sold 80 May at 60-61

New Edge sold 400 Sept at 77

Oil Share players

 

ADM sold 276 July bean oil /166 July meal at 36.20%

ADM bought 138 Dec bean oil/83 Dec meal at 41.20%

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg