From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 5/16/13

News

·         Brazilian contact said most Brazilian trading houses are aggressively buying physical supplies of Brazilian beans

·         NOAA forecasted above normal temps for the US for June – August

·         POET shuts down ethanol plant in India for maintenance , may be closed for 2 weeks said traders

·         Tunisia’s Ag Min estimated 2013 grain crop at 1.4-1.5 MMT vs. 2.2 MMT in 2012 and vs. 10 year average of 1.7 MMT

·         USDA official estimated Iran’s ‘13/14 wheat imports at 1.0 MMT vs. 6.0 MMT in ‘12/13

·         US cash bean oil markets at historic highs for this time of year

·         MDA Weather Services ‘13/14 crop estimates

o   Global wheat crop estimated at 680.2 MMT up 6 M from previous estimate

o   US wheat crop estimated at 1.516 BB up 24.0 MB from previous estimate

o   FSU wheat crop estimated at 95.9 MMT up 1.1 M from previous estimate

o   EU wheat crop estimated at 131.35 MMT up 2.67 M from previous estimate

o   Global feed grain crop estimated at 1.03 B tons up 12.7 M from previous

o   US corn crop estimated at 13.25 BB down 54.0 M from previous estimate

o   Global oilseed crop estimated at 464.1 MMT up 6.57 MMT from previous estimate

o   EU rapeseed crop estimated at 18.98 MMT up 420,000 tons from previous estimate

o   China soybean crop estimated at 11.81 MMT down 180,000 tons from previous estimate

o   US bean crop estimated at 3.116 BB up 22 MB from previous estimate

o   Global cotton crop estimated at 116.87 MB up 6.75 M from previous estimate

·         UAC estimated 2013 Ukraine soybean area at 1.5 MH record high

·         UAC estimated ‘13/14 Black Sea grain crop at 160.5 MMT

·         July beans closed below the 200 day moving average of 1431 ½ . The high of the day was 1431 and the settlement was 1427 ½

·         July bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 4965. July bean oil settled at 4952

·         Dec bean oil closed below the 50 day moving average of 4892. Dec bean oil settled at 4854

·         July meal closed above the 100 day moving average of 409.70 , but below the 200 day moving average of 415.80. July meal settled at 414.90

  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CDT with US acreage estimates. Previous estimates were
    • Corn acreage estimated at 97.753 MA vs. USDA estimate of 97.3 MA
    • Bean acreage estimated at 78.457 MA vs. USDA estimate of 77.1 MA
    • All wheat acreage estimated at 56.074 MA vs. USDA estimate of 56.4 MA
    • Cotton acreage estimated at 10.367 MA vs. USDA estimate of 10.0 MA
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Talk that up to 70% of US corn crop to be planted by Monday
  • Open outcry option players
    • GFI bought 2,500 July bean 1500 calls at 10-11
      • 5,000 July bean 1500 calls traded on the screen and in the pit between 10-11 ¼
    • New Edge sold 2,000 Short dated July bean 1160/1200 call spreads at 27-27 ½
    • ADM sold 1,000 July/Nov bean CSO 170/250 call spreads at 37-38
    • ADM sold 1,700 Sept corn 600/650 call spreads at 10
    • Rand bought 1,000 Sept corn 650 calls sold 1,000 Dec corn 650 calls at ½- ¾ debit
    • Tenco bought 1,000 short dated July corn 500 puts at 9
    • Jefferies bought 12,000 Dec corn 530/540 call spreads at 4 ¼ – 4 3/8
    • Tenco bought 1,000 July 2014 corn 700 calls sold 1,000 July 2014 450 puts at 1 ½ debit sold 380 July 2014 futures at 555
    • ADM bought 1,000 July/Dec corn CSO 90/70 put spread at 4 ¾
    • ADM bought 1,000 July/Dec corn CSO 100 puts at 13
    • ABN bought 2,000 June wheat 690/700 call spreads at 4-4 ¼
    • ABN sold 1,000 June wheat 680 puts at 7-7 ½
    • JP Morgan sold 500 July meal 440 calls at 3.85-4.00
    • ICap sold 400 July bean oil 49.5 straddles at 220
    • Tenco sold 400 June bean oil 50 calls at 25-30

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 3K

·         Corn sold 8K

·         Beans bought 5K

·         Meal bought 2K

·         Bean oil bought 2K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 26 ½ 640 str 20 ½ -22

N vol 27 ¼ 640 str 43 ½-44 ½

Q vol 31 ½ 550 str 61-63

U vol 31 ¼ 550 str 71-72 ½

Z vol 27 ¾ 520 str 83-84

H vol 25 ½ 530 str 94-96

Beans

M vol 18 ½ 1430 str 32-33 ½

N vol 19 ¼ 1430 str 69-70 ½

Q vol 21 ¼ 1360 str 101-103 ½

U vol 21 ¼ 1280 str 111 ½ -114 ½

X vol 20 1220 str 128-129

F vol 18 ¾ 1220 str 145-149

H vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 158-163

K vol 18 ½ 1240 str 168-174

Wheat

M vol 24 ½ 690 str 20-23

N vol 26 690 str 45-47

Q vol 28 700 str 68-70.

U vol 28 700 str 80-82

Z vol 26 710 str 104-106

H vol 24 ¼ 730 str 120-125

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 22 800 str 39-47

U vol 22 ½ 800 str 71-79

Z vol 23 810 str 97-105

H vol 21 ½ 820 str 105-125

KC wheat

N vol 23 ½ 740 str 43-47

U vol 26 750 str 78-85

Z vol 25 770 str 105-115

H vol 24 780 str 127-137

Meal

M vol 21 420 str 11-12.5

N vol 23.25 420 str 24.5-26

Q vol 23 390 str 32-34

U vol 23.75 370 str 36-38

V vol 22.75 340 str 36.5-38.5

Z vol 22.25 340 str 42.5-44.5

F vol 21.5 340 str 44-48

Bean oil

M vol 18.25 49.5 str 100-115

N vol 18.25 49.5 str 215-230

Q vol 18.5 49 str 305-330

U vol 18.5 49 str 305-330

V vol 18.5 48.5 str 400-430

Z vol 18.25 48.5 str 480-510

F vol 18 48.5 str 520-550

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg