From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 5/09/13

News

·         South Korea canceled tender for 2,000 tons of optional origin rice due to high prices

·         Jordan seeks 150K tons of milling wheat from the US, Canada, Australia, Black Sea region , or Germany

·         Iraq seeks 30K tons of rice from Thailand, the US, and or South America

·         Cash markets firm

·         NOAA said latest data confirmed that El Nino is unlikely to cause extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the summer and into the winter

·         Saskatchewan (Canada) crop planting started this week

·         Yigu Information Consulting LTD estimated Heilongjiang (China’s top corn producing state) 2013 corn output at 23.0 MMT vs. 27.0 MMT in 2012 due to cold wet weather

·         Yigu Information Consulting LTD said China’s corn planting is delayed by 15-20 days due to wet cold weather

·         Yigu said 15% of China’s corn planting area may be switched to bean acres

·         Yigu said China’s ‘13/14 corn imports could reach a record high this year. The old record was set in ‘11/12 of 5.2 MMT of corn imports

·         IMEA estimated 2013 Brazil’s second corn crop at 40.6 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 39.0 MMT

·         IMEA estimated Brazil’s total ‘12/13 corn crop at 76.88 MMT vs. ‘11/12 crop of 73.0 MMT

·         IMEA said Brazil corn will likely start being shipped in August and September. They said they are concerned about this.

·         Safras e Mercado estimated 2013 Brazil’s second corn crop at 41.55 MMT

·         More Conab estimates from this morning

o   2013 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 81.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 81.9 MMT

o   2013 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 36.78 MMT (record) vs. 32.47 MMT a year ago

o   2013 Brazil 2nd corn crop estimated at 42.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 41.8 MMT

o   2013 Brazilian total corn crop estimated at 78.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 77.45 MMT

o   2013 Brazilian corn exports estimated at 15.0 MMT vs. 22.3 MMT a year ago – Other Brazilian crop analysts expect the 2013 corn exports to reach 19.0 MMT

o   2013 Brazilian wheat crop estimated at 5.4 MMT vs. 2012 estimate of 4.3 MMT

o   ‘13/14 Brazilian wheat imports estimated at 6.8 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 7.2 MMT

·         India’s Ag Min estimated India’s 2013 wheat crop at 93.62 MMT

·         India’s Ag Min estimated India’s 2013 domestic wheat demand at 76.0 MMT

·         July beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1395 ¼ and above the 100 day of 1406. July beans settled at 1408 ¾

·         Dec wheat closed well above the 50 day moving average of 730 ¾ . Dec wheat settled at 748 ¼

·         July meal closed above the 50 day moving average of 408.20 and above the 100 day moving average of 410.20. July meal settled at 413.20

  • G8 meets tomorrow in the UK
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out with their April data report  tomorrow. Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts  
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate is 2.04 MMT vs. 2.17 MMT in March
    • Palm oil exports average estimate is 1.40 MMT vs. 1.54 M in March
    • Palm oil output average estimate is 1.39 MMT vs. 1.33 M in March
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their May 1-10th Malaysian palm oil export estimates , market expecting 379K down 17% from a month ago .

·         USDA US wheat and world production and supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CDT . See below for estimates

·         Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT

·         Open outcry option players

o   New Edge bought 1,200 Nov bean 900 puts at 1 ¾

o   Bunge bought 1,000 July bean 1420 calls at 28 ¼ -29 ¾

o   ICap sold 1,000 July corn 6902 calls at 7 ½

o   JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 530 straddles at 86-86 ¼ and bought 120 Dec corn at 534

o   New Edge bought 1,000 Dec corn 460/450 put spreads at 2 3/8

o   ICap bought 1,000 Sept corn 560/600 call spreads and sold 1,000 Sept corn 520 puts at 4 credit

o   JP Morgan bought 1,000 July corn 640 calls at 24 ½

o   FI bought 1,000 June corn 660/680 call spreads at 3 5/8 and sold 150 July futures at 640

o   ADM House sold 4,000 July corn 640 calls at 24 ½ . Open interest in the July 640 calls coming in this morning were 11,118 open.  My broker believes this is a new position

o   FI bought 5,500 Sept short dated corn 480 puts at 12 ½ Open interest as of this morning was 0

o   ABN bought 1,500 June wheat 690 puts at 5-5 ¾

o   JP Morgan sold 200 June meal 420 calls at 4.00

o   FC Stone sold 200 July meal 400 puts at 7.00

o   ADM sold 200 July meal 410 straddles at 24.75

o   Bunge sold 350 July bean oil 50 puts at 160-165

o   ADM bought 500 August bean oil 49 calls at 145

Estimates For Friday’s USDA report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT (Dow Jones).

Estimates for 2013 US Wheat production

  • All wheat (15 analysts surveyed) average estimate 2.059 BB, range of estimates are 1.832-2.165 BB vs. 2012 output of 2.269 BB
  • All winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.477 BB, range of estimates are 1.359 – 1.555 BB vs. 2012 output of 1.645 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .765 BB, range of estimates are .676-.834 BB vs. 2012 output of 1.004 BB
  • Soft red winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .496 BB, range of estimates are .473-.524 BB vs. 2012 output of .420 BB
  • White winter wheat (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate .217 BB, range of estimates are .204-.226 vs. 2012 output of .222 BB

Estimates for ‘12/13 US Grain and Soybean Carryout

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .754 BB, range of estimates are .684-.802 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .757 BB and vs. ‘11/12 carryout of .989 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .124 BB, range of estimates are .107-.130 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .125 BB and vs. ’11/12 carryout of .169 BB
  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) average estimate .731 BB, range of estimates are .681-.747 BB vs. April USDA estimate of .731 BB and vs. ’11/12 carry out of .743 BB 

Estimates for ’13/14 US Grain and Soybean Carryout (first estimates from the USDA on ’13/14 carryout)

  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.973 BB and range of estimates are 1.387 – 2.427 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .239 BB and range of estimates are .147 – .347 BB
  • Wheat (17 analysts surveyed) average estimate .627 BB and range of estimates are .486 – .726 BB

Estimates for ’12/13 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks

  • Wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 181.5 MMT, range of estimates are 178.3-183.2 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 182.260 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 199.4 MMT
  • Corn (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 125.8 MMT, range of estimates are 123.8-132.1 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 125.290 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 131.9 MMT
  • Beans (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 62.3 MMT, range of estimates are 61.1-63.0 vs. USDA April estimate of 62.63 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 55.1 MMT

Estimates for ’13/14 Global Grain and Soybean Ending Stocks

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 186.4 MMT, range of estimates are 178.1-195.8 MMT
  • Corn (7 analysts surveyed) average estimate 151.63 MMT, range of estimates are 135.4-165.6 MMT
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 70.5 MMT, range of estimates are 65.0-83.0 MMT

Estimates for ’12/13 Argentina and Brazil Bean and Corn Crops

  • Argentine bean crop (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 50.9MMT, range of estimates are 48.5-53.0 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 51.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 40.1 MMT
  • Argentine corn crop (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.4 MMT, range of estimates are 25.0-26.0 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 26.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 21.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.8 MMT, range of estimates are 82.0-83.5 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 83.5 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 66.5 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (8 analysts surveyed) average estimate 75.2 MMT, range of estimates are 73.5-77.5 MMT vs. USDA April estimate of 74.0 MMT and vs. ‘11/12 output of 73.0 MMT

Estimates for ‘13/14 US Cotton

·         Production (6 analysts surveyed) average estimate 15.5 M bales, range of estimates are 14.0-17.6 MB vs. April USDA estimate for ‘12/13 cotton production of 17.3 MB and vs. ’11/12 output of 15.6 MB

·         Exports (6 analysts surveyed) average estimated 12.0 MB , range of estimates are 11.3-13.7 MB vs. USDA April estimate for ‘12/13 cotton exports of 13.0 MB and vs. ‘11/12 exports of 11.7 MB

·         Ending stocks (6 analysts surveyed) average estimate 4.0 MB, range of estimates are 3.3-4.8 MB vs. April USDA estimate for ‘12/13 cotton ending stocks of 4.2 MB and vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 3.4 MB

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 4K

·         Corn bought 8K

·         Beans bought 4K

·         Meal bought 2K

·         Bean oil bought 1K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 25 ½ 645 str 27-28

N vol 26 ¼ 645 str 46 ½ -47 ½

Q vol 31 565 str 64-65 ½

U vol 30 ¼ 560 str 73-74

Z vol 27 ¾ 540 str 86 ½-88

 

Beans

M vol 17 ¾ 1410 str 40 ½ -42

N vol 18 1410 str 69 ½ -70 ½

Q vol 20 ½ 1340 str 100-102 ½

U vol 20 ½ 1260 str 110-113

X vol 19 ¾ 1220 str 129 ½ -131

F vol 19 1220 str 146 ½-150 ½

H vol 18 ¾ 1240 str 160-165

K vol 18 ¼ 1240 str 170-176

 

Wheat

M vol 25 720 str 28-30

N vol 26 ¾ 720 str 52-54

Q vol 27 ¾ 730 str 73-76

U vol 27 ¼ 730 str 85-87

Z vol 26 750 str 111-114

H vol 24 760 str 126-130

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 21 ¼ 830 str 44-53

U vol 22 ¾ 820 str 75-85

Z vol 22 ½ 830 str 100-110

H vol 20 ½ 840 str 110-130

 

KC wheat

N vol 24 ½ 780 str 51-56

U vol 26 4/2 790 str 86-92

Z vol 26 ½ 800 str 118-124

H vol 24 820 str 135-145

Meal

M vol 20.25 410 str 14-15.5

N vol 21.75 410 str 24.75-25.75

Q vol 23.25 390 str 32.5-34

U vol 23 360 str 35-36.5

V vol 22.5 350 str 36-37.5

Z vol 22 340 str 42.5-44

F vol 21 340 str 45-48

 

Bean oil

M vol 18.5 49 str 135-150

N vol 18.75 49 str 245-250

Q vol 19 49 str 330-340

U vol 19 48.5 str 375-395

V vol 18.75 48.5 str 410-440

Z vol 18.5 48 str 490-515

F vol 18 48 str 510-550

 

Crush quotes

               OPEN          CLOSE

MAY     -5 to -15     +10 to +20

JLY         39-39.5         41-42

AUG      53-54            51-52

SEP        71-72.5        70.5-71.5

OCT        70-71           71-71.5

DEC        64-64.5        64.5-65

JAN        59-60.5        60-61

MCH      60-61            60-61.5

MAY      59-61            60-61

 

Crush players

ABN bought 50 Dec at 64.5

Bunge sold 50 August at 53.5

Futures International sold 50 July at 39.5

Knight sold 50 July at 39

Knight sold 20 Dec at 64.5

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg