From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 5/07/13

News

·         Australia’s Central Bank cut interest rates by .25% to 2.75% (record low)

·         TALK CHS is bringing another cargo of corn into the US from Argentina , scheduled to be loaded tomorrow

·         AgroConsult estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean planting area at 29.1 MH up 1.2 MH from this season

·         AgroConsult said ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop could reach 86.0 MMT

·         SA Commodities Unimar said worst of waiting over as Brazil soy ship queue shortens- Reuters

o   As of May 4th Santos port shortened to 51 ships from 72 ships a month ago

o   As of May 4th Paranagua port shortened to 81 ships from 86 ships a month ago

·         Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 21.02 MMT of grain so far this season (season ends June 30th 2013) , including 12.09 MMT of corn, 6.56 MMT of wheat and 2.04 MMT of barley vs. total ‘11/12 season exports of 21.8 MMT

·         Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 1.49 MMT of grain in April vs. 1.62 MMT in March

·         Jordan bought 50K optional origin barley for August- September shipment

·         Jordan seeks 100K optional origin barley for August- September shipment

·         CEC said South Africa’s 2012 wheat crop is at 1.87 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT in 2011

·         CEC said South Africa’s 2012 wheat planted area was 511,200 hectares vs. 604,700 hectares in 2011

·         Oil World

o   Estimated EU 2013 rapeseed crop at 19.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.2 MMT vs. 19.24 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated UK 2013 rapeseed crop at 1.8-1.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.3 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 2.56 MMT

o   Said global soymeal supplies may stay tight until June due to slow South American exports

·         Dr. Cordonnier’s Weekly Report

o   Last week Dr. Cordonnier said 1-3 MA of corn would not be planted and may be switched to beans, this week he said it is closer to 1 million acres due to improving weather

o   Estimated Paraguay’s 2013 corn crop at 3.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.5 MMT

o   Estimated Brazilian bean crop at 81.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated Brazilian corn crop at 75.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated Argentina bean crop at 50.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated Argentina corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated total South American bean crop at 144.45 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated total South American corn crop at 103.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 102.1 MMT

·         Midday weather from Crop Cast said slightly wetter northern and western Midwest for the 6-10 day and slightly drier for the 11-15 day

·         Scot Consultoria estimates for Parana

o   ‘12/13 bean harvest 99% complete vs. 98% a week ago

o   59% or 9.18 MMT of the ‘12/13 Parana bean crop has been sold

·         Somar Meteorologia estimates for Brazil

o   RGDS ‘12/13 bean harvest is 90% complete

o   Santa Catarina bean harvest is 94% complete

o   Minas Gerais bean harvest is 88% complete

o   Bahia bean harvest is 90% complete

o   Maranhao and Piaui is 80% complete

o   Expects Brazil’s total bean harvest to be completed in 10 days.

·         July wheat closed slightly below the 50 day moving average of 709 ¾. July wheat settled at 709

·         Dec wheat closed above the 50 day moving average of 731. Dec wheat settled at 735 ¾

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT

·         Chinese April import data comes out tomorrow

·         Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting

o   Crude a build of 2.0 MB

o   Gas a draw of 475K

o   Distillates a build of 500K

·         Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

·         Open outcry players

o   New Edge sold 1,000 March bean 1000/1100 call spreads at 79 ½

o   FI bought 1,000 June corn 660 calls at 6 1/8 and sold 280 July futures at 636

o   FI bought 1,500 June corn 670 calls at 4-4 1/8 and sold 300 July futures at 636 and 637

o   Jefferies bought 1,500 Dec corn 540 calls and sold 1,500 July corn 620 calls at 11 debit

o   RJO bought 1,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 29

o   FC Stone bought 1,000 Dec corn 600 calls and sold 2,000 Dec corn 450 puts at 2 ¾ credit and sold 980 futures at 536

o   Jefferies bought 1,800 Sept corn 540 calls and sold 1,800 July corn 620 calls at 13

o   RJO bought 1,000 July corn 600 puts at 8 ¼ -8 ½

o   ABN bought 2,000 June wheat 700/720 call spreads at 7 ½

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 2K

·         Corn bought 4K

·         Beans bought 3K

·         Meal bought 1K

·         Bean oil bought 2K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 26 640 str 28-29 ½

N vol 27 ¼ 640 str 48 ½- 49 ½

Q vol 32 560 str 66-68

U vol 31 ¾ 560 str 76 ½-77 ½

Z vol 29 540 str 91-92 ½

H vol 26 ¾ 550 str 103 ½ -105 ½

 

Beans

M vol 18 1380 str 43-45

N vol 18 ½ 1380 str 62-64

Q vol 20 ¾ 1320 str 103-104

U vol 20 ¾ 1260 str 112-114

X vol 20 1220 str 132-135

F vol 19 ¼ 1220 str 147-151

H vol  18 ¾ 1220 str 158 ½ -163 ½

K vol 18 ¼ 1220 str 166-172

 

Wheat

M vol 25 ½ 710 str 31-32

N vol 27 710 str 53-55

U vol 27 ¾ 720 str 86-88

Z vol 26 740 str 112-113

H vol 24 750 str 128-130

 

No Minneapolis wheat info today

 

KC Wheat

N vol 25 760 str 52-57

U vol 25 ½ 770 str 81-89

Z vol 26 780 str 114-122

H vol 22 ½ 800 str 120-130

 

Meal

M vol 22 400 str 15.5-16.5

N vol 22.75 400 str 26-27

Q vol 23 380 str 33-34.5

U vol 23.5 360 str 36.5-38

V vol 23 340 str 37.5-39.5

Z vol 22.5 340 str 44-46

F vol 21.75 340 str 46-48

 

Bean oil

M vol 18.5 49 str 145-165

N vol 18.5 49 str 240-260

Q vol 18.75 49 str 330-350

U vol 18.75 48.5 str 375-405

V vol 18.5 48.5 str 415-445

Z vol 148.5 48 str 500-530

F vol 18 48 str 525-545

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg