From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 5/06/13

News

·         Correction from this morning’s email. I wrote 73 bean oil receipts were canceled Friday afternoon . The correct figure is 272 bean oil receipts were canceled. Breakdown is

o   13 out of Cargill, Ackley IA

o   199 out of Minnesota Soybean Processors , Brewster MN

o   60 out of South Dakota Soybean Processors, Volga SD

·         Weekly US export inspections report came out this morning at 10 am CDT .

o   Wheat at 16.639 MB expecting 21-26 MB

o   Corn at 6.506 MB expecting 11-13 MB

o   Beans at 6.422 MB expecting 4-8 MB

·         Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

o   As of 5/03/13 imported beans stocks at ports at 4.1133 MMT up 71,200 tons from a week ago

o   For the week of 4/27 -5/03 Chinese domestic crush rate fell due to the 3 day holiday and lack of beans.

o   Total crush volume for the week of 4/27/13-5/03/13 equaled 1,005,350 tons down 11.43% from a week ago

o   Total crush capacity utilization for the week of 4/27-5/03 was 39.36% vs. 44.44% a week ago

o   April’s total crush volume totaled 4.68 MMT vs. 4.97 MMT in March

o   Total crush volume from 10/01/12 – 5/3/13 totaled 34,383,600 tons down .82% from a year ago

o   Total crush volume from Jan 1st – May 3rd totaled 18,821,020 tons up 1.66% from a year ago

o   May bean imports estimated at 5.674 MMT

·         CNGOIC estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.6 MMT vs. April estimate of 4.2 MMT

·         CNGIOC said China’s 2012 total corn purchases for reserves totaled 24.70 MMT expecting 20.0 MMT and vs. 10.0 MMT a year ago

·         A Tyson executive in a conference call said Tyson did import corn from South America into eastern US ports (many believe this is already in the market)

·         On Friday Pilgrim’s Pride  said they would “continue to evaluate imports from South America for both corn and meal” on their earnings call

·         Safras e Mercado said as of 5/03 97% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 94% a week ago vs. 97% a year ago and vs. 95% 5 year average

·         Safras e Mercado said as of 5/03 85% of the summer corn crop has been harvested vs. 91% a year ago

·         Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2013  total corn crop at 78.4 MMT vs. 72.7 MMT a year ago

·         Argentina to give rebates on wheat export tax – Reuters

·         Argentina’s Ag Min said as of 5/03/13 39% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested

·         French Farm Ministry estimated 2013 corn planting area at 1.64 MH down .4% from a year ago and up .8% from 5 year average. This is their first estimate for corn planting area

·         French Farm Ministry estimated 2013 soft wheat planting area at 4.98 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.97 MH and up 2.4% from a year ago

·         French Farm Ministry estimated 2013 rapeseed planting area at 1.48 MH vs. previous estimate of 1.52 MH and down 8% from a year ago

·         Philippines Ag Secretary said their 1st quarter rice production was up 5.5% from a year ago (record)

·         Philippines Ag Secretary said their 1st quarter corn production was up 10% from a year ago (record)

·         Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting corn planting about 13-20% complete and expecting bean planting about 1-4% complete

·         German and France finance ministers meet tomorrow

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT

·         Open outcry players

o   Tenco bought 1,000 Dec corn futures (533) and sold 500 Nov bean futures(1207 ¼ ) at 2.265

o   Tenco bought 1,000 July bean 1350 puts at 23 and bought 340 July futures at 1384

o   Rand bought 1,000 Nov bean 1220 puts at 74 -74 ½

o   New Edge bought 1,100 March bean 960 puts at 8 ¾ -9 ¼

o   Macquarie bought 6,000 July corn 600 puts and sold 6,000 July short dated (goes off Dec futures) 500 puts at a ¼ – ½ debit. This was tied to futures, they bought 1,560 July futures at 646 and sold 1,320 Dec futures at 536.

o   JP Morgan sold 2,500 Dec corn 600 calls at 25-25 ¼ and bought 875 Dec futures at 535

o   Jefferies bought 7,000 Dec corn 540 calls and sold 6,000 July corn 620 calls at 4-11

o   ABN bought 1,000 June wheat 760 calls at 2 ¾

o   Jefferies sold 400 July bean oil 50 puts at 205

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 4K

·         Corn sold 15K

·         Beans sold 5K

·         Meal sold 2K

·         Bean oil sold 3K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

M vol 26 635 str 29 ½ -30 ½

N vol 28 ¼ 635 str 50 ½-51 ½

Q vol 32 ½ 560 str 68-69

U vol 32 ¼ 560 str 78-80

Z vol 29 ¾ 540 str 93 ½ -94 ½

 

Beans

M vol 18 ½ 1370 str 45 ½-47

N vol 19 1370 str 73 ½- 75 ½

Q vol 21 1320 str 103-105 ½

U vol 21 1240 str 112 ½-115

X vol 20 ¼ 1200 str 132 ½-135

F vol 19 ½ 1220 str 150-154

H vol 19 1220 str 161-166

 

Wheat

M vol 26 700 str 32-34

N vol 28 700 str 55-57

U vol 28 ½ 710 str 87-90

Z vol 26 ¾ 730 str 113-116

H vol 24 ¾ 740 str 127-132

 

Minneapolis wheat

N vol 22 ½ 810 str 50-58

U vol 23 810 str 76-86

Z vol 23 820 str 103-113

H vol 21 830 str 120-140

 

No KC wheat info today

 

Meal

M vol 22 400 str 15.5-17

N vol 22.75 400 str 26-27.5

Q vol 23.25 380 str 33-35

U vol 23.5 360 str 36.5-38

V vol 23 340 str 37.5-39.5

Z vol 22.5 340 str 44-46

F vol 21.75 340 str 46-48

 

Bean oil

M vol 18.5 48.5 str 150-175

N vol 18.5 48.5 str 245-265

Q vol 18.75 48.5 str 325-350

U vol 18.5 48.5 str 380-405

V vol 18.5  48.5 str 415-455

Z vol 18.5 47.5 str 495-530

F vol 18 47.5 str 525-550

 

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg