From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap

SER-6646 – Force Majeure – IL River Flooding – Corn and Soybean Load Out – 4-25-13

News

·         CME Group Special Executive Report SER-6646 – Declaration of Force Majeure due to Flooding on the Illinois River – see attachment

·         Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 corn crop at 24.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.0 MMT and vs. Ag Min estimate of 25.7 MMT

·         BACE said Argentina’s corn harvest is 35.1% complete

·         BACE estimated Argentina’s ‘12/13 bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         BACE said Argentina’s bean harvest is 56.2% complete

·         IGC estimated ’13/14 world corn crop at 939 MMT (record) up 10% from a year ago

·         IGC estimated ‘13/14 world corn stocks at 143 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 116 MMT

·         IGC estimated ‘13/14 world wheat crop at 680 MMT vs. previous estimate of 683 MMT and vs. 655 MMT a year ago

·         IGC estimated ‘13/14 world wheat stocks at 181 MMT vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 179 MMT

·         CEC (Crop Estimate Committee) estimated South Africa’s 2013 corn crop at 11.562 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.75 MMT

·         CEC estimated South Africa’s 2013 wheat area at 516,600 hectares vs. 2012 area of 511,200

·         US 1st quarter GDP comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT

·         May options expire tomorrow on the close

·         Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT

·         July meal will be top step (spot month) on Monday

·         Open outcry option players

o   Mizuho sold 1,250 May bean 1410 puts at 4-4 ½

o   Macquarie bought 1,000 July corn 580 puts at 10 ¾

o   ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 630 calls at 15

o   JP Morgan sold 1,000 July corn 680 calls at 8-8 ¼

o   FI bought 5,500 Short dated Sept corn 475 puts at 14

o   Macquarie sold 2,000 short dated Sept corn 475 puts at 14

o   JP Morgan sold 1,000 July corn 680 calls at 8 ¼

o   Jefferies bought 750 July wheat 730,780,830 call fly at 6 ¾

o   ADM bought 1,025 May wheat 710 puts and sold 1,025 June 700 puts at 9 ½

o   ABN bought 1,000 June wheat 720 calls at 15-15 ½

o   ADM bought 500 July meal 360 puts at 3.75

o   Mizuho sold 500 July bean oil 47.5 puts at 65

o   New Edge sold 500 May bean oil 50.5 calls at 5

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 4K

·         Corn bought 7K

·         Beans bought 10K

·         Meal bought 3K

·         Bean oil bought 3K

Closing vols and ATM straddles – May options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CDT

 

Corn

K vol 18 645 str 6 -7 ½

M vol 25 625 str 35-36

N vol 26 ¾ 625 str 52-53

U vol 20 550 str 75-76

Z vol 28 ¼ 530 str 90-91

 

Beans

K vol 16 ½  1420 str 12-14

M vol 19 ¾ 1370 str 61-63

N vol 20 ¾ 1370 str 89-90

Q vol 22 1300 str 114-117

U vol 22 1240 str 124-127

X vol 21 ½ 1200 str 145-147

F vol 20 ¾ 1220 str 162 ½ -166 ½

H vol 20 ¼ 1220 str 174-179

K vol 20 1220 str 184-190

 

Wheat

K vol 20 700 str 7-9

M vol 28 700 str 43-45

N vol 28 ¼ 700 str 62-63

U vol 28 ½ 710 str 92-94.

Z vol 27 ½ 730 str 119-121

H vol 25 740 str 129-134

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 25 ½ 830 str 7-17

N vol 23 ½ 810 str 54-64

U vol 23 ½ 810 str 78-88

Z vol 23 ½ 810 str 101-111

KC wheat

K vol 23 ½ 760 str 8-15

N vol 25 760 str 60-66

U vol 26 ½ 740 str 90-97

Z vol 26 790 str 120-127

 

Meal

K vol 20 410 str 4-6

M vol 23 400 str 21.5-23.5

N vol 24.25 400 str 30.5-31.5

Q vol 24 370 str 35-38

U vol 24 350 str 38-40

V vol 24 340 str 40.5-43

Z vol 23.5 340 str 47-49

 

Bean oil

K vol 19 50 str 45-70

M vol 18.75 49.5 str 200-220

N vol 18.75 49.5 str 280-295

Q vol 18.75 49 str 360-390

U vol 18.75 49 str 405-435

V vol 18.5 48.5 str 435-465

Z vol 18.5 48.5 str 515-545

 

Crush quotes

               OPEN            CLOSE

MAY       30.5-34.5       34-36

JLY           52-53              52-52.5

AUG       53-54.5           53.5-54.5

SEP         67.5-69            68.5-69.5

OCT        69-70                69.5-70

DEC        62-63                62.5-63

JAN        57-59                57-59

MCH      56.5-59.5        57-59.5

MAY       56.5-59           56.5-58.5

 

Crush players

 

Cunningham sold 20 Jan at 57.5

RJO sold 100 July at 53.5

Tenco sold 20 Aug at 54

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg