From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Egypt Meditrade bought 26,500 tons of sunflower oil for May shipment
  • CONAB said Brazil will buy 4 MMT of domestic corn for stocks this year. Currently Brazil corn stocks are at 500,000 tons
  • May beans closed above the 50 day moving average of 1430 and above the 100 day moving average of 1426 ¼ . May beans settled at 1430 ½
  • Strategie Grains EU ‘13/14 crop estimates
    • EU 27 soft wheat crop estimated at 130.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 130.5 MMT
    • EU 28 (including Croatia) soft wheat crop estimated at 131.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 131.6 MMT
    • EU 27 corn crop estimated at 64.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 64.1 MMT
    • EU 28 (including Croatia) corn crop estimated at 66.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.0 MMT
  • Ag Canada ‘13/14 Canadian crop estimates
    • Total grain and oilseed output estimated at 73.71 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 70.196 MMT
    • Total grain and oilseed exports estimated at 39.49 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 35.289 MMT
    • Total grain and oilseed domestic use estimated at 38.103 MMT vs. previous estimate of 38.113 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 37.242 MMT
    • Total grain and oilseed ending stocks estimated at 10.401 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.400 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 9.095 MMT
    • All wheat output estimated at 28.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 27.205 MMT
    • All wheat exports estimated at 18.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 18.75 MMT
    • All wheat ending stocks estimated at 5.7 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 5.3 MMT
    • Canola output estimated at 15.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 13.31 MMT
    • Canola exports estimated at 8.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 7.2 MMT
    • Canola ending stocks estimated at 600K tons unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 350K
    • Corn output estimated at 12.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 13.06 MMT
    • Corn exports estimated at 600,000 tons unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 1.0 MMT
    • Corn ending stocks estimated at 1.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 1.7 MMT
    • Barley output estimated at 9.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 8.012 MMT
    • Barley exports estimated at 2.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 2.3 MMT
    • Barley ending stocks estimated at 1.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 800,000 tons
    • Bean output estimated at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 4.93 MMT
    • Bean exports estimated at 3.25 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 estimate of 3.20 MMT
    • Bean ending stocks estimated at 250K unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘12/13 estimate
  • Concerns of planting delays in western Canada
  • Japan customs data – March imports
    • Japan imported 2.46 MMT of grain in March up 3.9% from a year ago
    • Japan imported 994,432 tons of grain from the US in March down 40.3% from a year ago
    • Japan imported 197,349 tons of beans in March down 13.7% from a year ago
    • Japan imported 161,299 tons of beans from the US in March down 14.5% from a year ago
  • Japan bought 1,960 tons of feed wheat and 36,705 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for July shipment
  • India’s Trade Body estimated India’s ‘12/13 rapeseed output at 7.15 MMT up 22% from a year ago
  • China’s Ag Min said wet weather in China’s corn belt is delaying planting by up to 10 days
  • Chinese industry analysts estimated ‘13/14 China corn imports at 6-7 MMT vs. ‘12/13 record of 5.2 MMT n
  • IKAR estimated ‘12/13 Russian grain imports at 1.7 MMT . Russia has already imported 1.3 MMT of grain this season
  • Russia’s statistics office said Russia’s April 1st grain stocks were at 18.0 MMT down 30.2% from a year ago
  • SovEcon says Russia grain exports will rebound by mid May
  • Analysts estimated Ukraine’s ‘12/13 corn exports at 12-12.5 MMT vs. 15.0 MMT in ‘11/12 and vs. Ag Min estimate of 14.0 MMT
  • Freezing temps in southern Plains forecast for tonight , may cause more damage to winter wheat crops
  • US Army Corps of Engineers says Mississippi river locks 16-22 (central Iowa to northern Missouri) to close starting tomorrow as river tops flood stage (Reuters)
  • Crop Cast estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 676.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 684.6 MMT
  • Crop Cast estimated China’s ‘13/14 winter wheat crop at 112.7 MMT
  • Crop Cast estimated ‘13/14 US winter wheat crop at 1.566 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.79 BB
  • G20 summit continues tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CDT
  • Surveyor Intertek Agri Services will come out on Saturday with their April 1st – April 20th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Surveyor SGS will come out on Monday with their April 1 – April 20 Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Open outcry option players
    • ADM bought 1,000 May bean 1430 puts at 11-11 ¼
    • Tenco bought 1,500 July bean 1380 puts and sold 1,500 June bean 1380 puts at 12 ½  -13
    • ADM bought 4,500 June bean 1450/1500 call spreads at 7 debit
    • New Edge bought 3,000 Sept corn 520/480 put spreads at 9 7/8 -10
    • Rand bought 1,000 Dec corn 500/450 put spreads at 13 ½
    • FI bought 12,000 Dec corn 480 puts sold 6,000 Dec corn 530 puts at ½ – ¾ credit
    • FI bought 5,000 Dec corn 450 puts at 12-12 ¼
    • FI bought 2,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 25-27 ¼
    • Advantage sold 2,500 Dec corn 480p/600c strangles at 45 ¾
    • ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 600 calls and sold 2,000 Dec corn 660 calls at 1 ½ credit
    • ADM sold 1,000 July/Dec wheat CSO – 20 puts at 4
    • RJO bought 3,000 July meal 420 calls at 10-10.75
    • Rand bought 2,000 August bean oil 54 calls at 60

 

Estimated Fund Activity

  • Wheat bought 1K
  • Corn sold 12K
  • Beans bought 7K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing  vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 24 640 str 19-20

M vol 25 630 str 39 ½ -41

N vol 26 ¼ 630 str 55-56

U vol 29 ½ 570 str 78-80

Z vol 28 540 str 91 ½ -93

H vol 26 ¼ 550 str 104-107

 

Beans

K vol 16 ¾ 1430 str 29-31

M vol 18 ¾ 1390 str 65-67

N vol 19 ¾ 1390 str 91-93

Q vol 21 1340 str 116-119

U vol 21 1260 str 124-127

X vol 20 ¾ 1220 str 145-147

F vol 19 ¾ 1200 str 156-160

H vol 19 ¼ 1200 str 166 ½ -171 ½

 

Wheat

K vol 26 ¼ 700 str 21-23

M vol 27 ¼ 710 str 47-49

N vol 27 710 str 65-66

U vol 27 ¼ 720 str 92-94

Z vol 26 ½ 730 str 118-120

H vol 24 ¼ 740 str 130-134

 

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 21 820 str 18-25

N vol 22 800 str 55-63

U vol 22 790 str 78-88

Z vol 22 800 str 102-112

 

KC wheat

K vol 23 ½ 740 str 20-25

N vol 24 750 str 59-65

U vol 25 ½ 760 str 80-90

Z vol 25 ½ 780 str 116-126

 

Meal

K vol 19.25 410 str 10.5-12.5

M vol 21.5 400 str 22-24

N vol 22 400 str 30.5-32.5

Q vol 21.75 380 str 35.5-37.5

U vol 22.25 360 str 37.5-40.5

V vol 21.5 340 str 38-41

Z vol 21.25 340 str 43.5-46

 

Bean oil

K vol 17.5 49.5 str 100-115

M vol 18 49.5 str 215-230

N vol 18 49.5 str 285-300

Q vol 18.25 49.5 str 360-390

U vol 18.25 49.5 str 400-435

V vol 18 49 str 440-470

Z vol 18 49 str 510-540

 

Thank You,

 

Kate Rosenberg