From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News
· USDA report tomorrow at 11 am CDT . See below for estimates
· Chinese Industry Analysts – Chinese crush breakdown
o For the week of March 30th – April 5 Chinese total crush volume at 1,034,400 vs. 1,223,850 tons (down 15.47%) from a week ago
o For the week of March 30th – April 5 total crush capacity utilization at 40.66% vs. 48.11% a week ago .
o Total March crush volume estimated at 4.97 MMT vs. 2.93 MMT in February
o Oct 1st 2012 – April 5th 2013 total crush volume at 30,014,100 tons down 437,555 tons (1.43%) from a year ago
o January 1st 2013 – April 5th 2013 total crush volume at 14,451,520 tons up .78% from a year ago
o As of April total import bean stocks at 4.1674 MMT down 102,000 tons from a week ago and down 12.90% from a year ago
o Estimated April Chinese bean imports at 4.18 MMT
o Estimated May Chinese bean imports at 5.5 MMT
o Estimated June Chinese bean imports at 6.4-6.5 MMT
· Deutsche Bank 2013 average CBOT corn price forecasted at $6.25 down 17.9% from previous forecast
· Deutsche Bank 2013 average CBOT wheat price forecasted at $6.70 down 22.7% from previous forecast
· Deutsche Bank 2013 average CBOT bean price forecasted at $13.20 down 13.9% from previous forecast
· Cash bean markets strong
· RUMOR POET (ethanol maker) bought back 2 unit trains of DDGs.
· Directorate of Wheat Research in India said India’s ‘12/13 wheat crop will be larger than ‘11/12 record wheat crop of 94.9 MMT. India’s Ag Min estimated the ‘12/13 wheat crop at 92.3 MMT
· Based on a Bloomberg survey of 4 analysts Indonesia’s March palm oil exports estimated at 1.65 MMT vs. Feb exports of 2.04 MMT (steepest monthly drop in 2 years )
· China Cereals and Oils Business Net estimated China’s April – September Indonesia palm oil imports at 2.39 MMT vs. 2.68 MMT a year ago and vs. 3.56 MMT October – March .
· China Cereals and Oils Business Net said as of 4/02/13 palm oil stocks at Chinese ports at 1.46 MMT ( near record) and will remain above 1 MMT until at least July
· More CONAB estimates
o ‘12/13 Brazil bean crop estimated at 81.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 82.1 MMT
o CONAB said about 75% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested
o Estimated average bean yield at 2.957 TPH vs. previous estimate of 2.968 TPH
o ‘12/13 Brazil corn crop estimated at 77.45 MMT vs. previous estimate of 46.1 MMT
o Estimated 1st corn crop at 34.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
o Estimated 2nd corn crop at 42.68 MMT vs. 41.27 MMT previously
o ‘12/13 wheat crop estimated at 4.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
o ‘12/13 cotton crop estimated at 1.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.4 MMT and vs. 1.9 MMT in ‘11/12
· Oil World estimated 2013 Argentine bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
· Oil World said there are concerns about weather damage to Argentine beans
· French customs data showed France exported 1.88 MMT of soft wheat in February up 89% from January and up 993,227 tons from a year ago
· France Farm Ministry 2013 France planted area estimates
o 2013 rapeseed area estimated at 1.52 MH down 5.6% from 2012
o 2013 barley area estimated at 1.59 MH down 5.5% from 2012
o 2013 wheat area estimated at 4.97 MH up 2.2% from 2012
· Egypt considers resuming wheat imports from Kazakhstan
· Russia sold 54K tons of intervention grain making the total since Oct 23rd 2.71 MMT sold
· Russia Ag Min said Russia exported 14.147 MMT of grain between July 1st – March 31st down 37% from a year ago
· Cargill 3rd quarter earning fall 42% on pressure from drought (Dow Jones)
· Bird flu found on S.Africa ostrich farm, no Chinese link seen – RTRS
Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT
Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their March data report. Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts here are estimates for the March Malaysian Palm Oil data report
March palm oil stocks average estimate 2.35 MMT (7 month low) vs. 2.44 MMT in February
March palm oil production average estimate 1.28 MMT vs. 1.30 MMT in February
March palm oil exports average estimate 1.34 MMT vs. 1.40 MMT in February
Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s April 1st – 10th palm oil exports tomorrow
Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting
Crude a build of 1.45 MB
Gas a draw of 1.5 MB
Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT
Today was the 3rd day of the index fund roll. Roll ends on Thursday . In the open outcry market
Wheat – 300 May July spreads were sold at 5 ¼
Corn – 2,800 May July spreads were sold at 16 ¾
Beans – 1,200 May July spreads were sold at 24 ¼ -24 ¾ (majority were sold at 24 ½ )
Meal – 1,500 May July spreads were sold at .50-.40
Bean oil – 1,200 May July spreads were sold at 20-21
Open outcry option players
Tenco sold 1,000 Nov bean 1400/1500 call spreads at 12
Rosenthal bought 500 May bean 1450 calls at 4 3/8
Macquarie bought 500 July 1460 calls at 12 ½ -12 ¾
Bunge sold 500 June beans 1350 puts at 24-24 ¼
GFI bought 1,000 Dec corn 540/530 put spreads at 5 ½ and bought 40 Dec futures at 534
ADM bought 1,000 June corn 640/675 call spreads at 8 ¾
Jefferies bought 8,000 May corn 680 puts and sold 8,000 July corn 640 puts at 5 ½ -6 ¼ debit (yesterday they bought 11K CK 690 puts and sold 11K CN 640 puts at 19 ½ -20)
Jefferies bought 1,600 May corn 670 puts sold 1,600 July 630 puts at 1 ¼ debit
New Edge bought 1,800 May corn 680/700 call spreads at 1 3/8 and sold 144 May futures at 639 ½
JP Morgan bought 2,000 July corn 680 calls at 9 3/8 and sold 480 July futures at 625
Tenco sold 2,000 July corn 620/640 call spreads at 9 and bought 240 July futures at 626 ½
JP Morgan sold 1,000 Dec corn 500 puts at 27 1/8 -27 ½ and sold 240 Dec futures at 535 and 536
Jefferies sold 1,500 May corn 670 calls at 4 ¼
ABN bought 2,000 May corn 600 puts at 1 7/8 -2
ABN bought 3,200 May corn 640/620 put spreads at 6 3/8 -6 ¾
JP Morgan bought 5,500 July corn 680 calls at 9 3/8 -9 ½ and sold 1,800 July futures at 625
FI bought 400 July wheat 700 p /800c combos at 18 ¼ and bought 240 July futures at 713
FI bought 400 July meal 410/430 call spreads at 4.40
Mizuho bought 500 May meal 370 puts at 1.25
Tenco sold 250 Dec bean oil 52 calls at 165

Estimates for tomorrow’s USDA supply and demand and world production report. USDA will estimate US wheat crop in their May report. Report comes out at 11 am CDT

Estimates for April ‘12/13 US Grain, Soybean Ending Stocks
Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .824 BB, range of estimates are .625-.925 BB, March estimate was .632 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .989 BB
Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .137 BB, range of estimates are .107-.160 BB, March estimate was .125 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .169 BB
Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .731 BB, range of estimates are .700-.776 BB, March estimate was .716 BB, and ‘11/12 ending stocks were .743 BB

Estimates For April ‘12/13 World Grain, Soybean Carryout
Corn (11 analysts surveyed) average estimate 120.2 MMT, range of estimates are 116.0 – 125.0 MMT, March estimate was 117.48 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 131.16 MMT
Beans (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 60.1 MMT, range of estimates are 58.21 – 62.0 MMT, March estimate was 60.21 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 55.25 MMT
Wheat (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 178.6, range of estimates are 176.9-180.0 MMT, March estimate was 178.23 MMT, and ‘11/12 carryout was 196.47 MMT

Estimates for April Argentina, Brazil Corn and soybean production
Argentine corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 25.7 MMT, range of estimates are 25.0 – 26.5 MMT, March estimate was 26.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 21.0 MMT
Argentine beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 50.6 MMT, range of estimates are 49.0-52.0 MMT, March estimate was 51.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 40.1 MMT
Brazil corn (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 72.9 MMT, range of estimates are 71.95-75.0 MMT , March estimate was 72.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 73.0 MMT
Brazil beans (18 analysts surveyed) average estimate 82.8 MMT, range of estimates are 81.0-83.7 MMT, March estimate was 83.5 MMT, and ‘11/12 production was 66.5 MMT

Estimated Fund Activity
· Wheat sold 2K
· Corn bought 10K
· Beans bought 7K
· Meal bought 3K
· Bean oil bought 3,500

Closing vols and ATM straddles

Corn
K vol 23 ½ 640 str 26-27
M vol 23 620 str 39 ½ -41
N vol 24 620 str 53-54
U vol 28 ¼ 560 str 75-76
Z vol 25 ¾ 540 str 86 ½ -88
H vol 24 ¼ 550 str 98-100

Beans
K vol 16 ½ 1400 str 40-41
M vol 17 ¼ 1370 str 66-68
N vol 17 ½ 1370 str 85 ½ -87
Q vol 20 1340 str 114-118
U vol 20 ¾ 1280 str 127-130
X vol 21 1240 str 151-153
F vol 20 1240 str 165-169
H vol 20 1260 str 183-188.
K 14 vol 19 ¾ 1260 str 192 ½ – 198 ½

Wheat
K vol 25 710 str 31-34
M vol 26 710 str 51-53
N vol 26 ¼ 710 str 66-67
U vol 26 ½ 720 str 92-94
Z vol 25 ¾ 730 str 117-119
H vol 23 ¾ 750 str 129-133

Minneapolis wheat
K vol 19 800 str 22-28
N vol 21 800 str 54-62
U vol 23 800 str 80-88
Z vol 22 810 str 102-112

KC Wheat
K vol 24 750 str 29-35
N vol 24 ½ 750 str 63-71
U vol 25 760 str 90-98
Z vol 25 780 str 112-125

Meal
K vol 21.25 390 str 14.5-16.5
M vol 21.25 390 str 24-26
N vol 21.75 390 str 30.5-33.5
Q vol 22 380 str 36-39
U vol 22 360 str 39-42
V vol 22 340 str 40-43
Z vol 21.25 340 str 45-48

Bean oil
K vol 16.75 49.5 str 135-155
M vol 16.75 50 str 225-245
N vol 19 50 str 290-305
Q vol 17.5 50 str 360-390
U vol 17.5 49.5 str 410-440
V vol 17.75 49.5 str 450-480
Z vol 17.75 49.5 str 525-555

Crush quotes
OPEN CLOSE
MAY 29-30 22.5-23.5
JLY 52-52.5 49-49.5
AUG 56.5-59 55.5-56.5
SEP 68.5-70 68.5-69.5
OCT 65.5-68 64-65.5
DEC 61-62 60-61
JAN 59-61 58-60
MCH 60-62 58.5-61

Crush Players

ABN sold 40 July crush at 52.5

FI bought 150 May crush at 27.5 -29

Rand sold 200 July crush at 51-51.5

RJO bought 50 May crush at 27.5

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg