From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 4/30/13

News

·         Today was the 1st day of the Wheat Quality Council US winter wheat tour. 2 days remain.  Observations from wheat tour coming back with highly variable results, ranging from total loss to above normal yields .

·         Corn limits will be back to normal (.40 cents) of tonight’s/tomorrow’s trade.

·         USDA announced this morning 120K US sorghum sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

·         Jordan bought 50K optional origin feed barley for June/July shipment

·         Oil World

o   Said South American May bean exports may hit a record high of 10.0 MMT

o   Estimated South America’s April bean exports at 9.3 MMT (record high for the month of April) vs. 4.3 MMT in March

o   Brazil exported 6.4 MMT of beans in April vs. 3.54 MMT of beans in March and vs. 4.43 MMT in April 2012

o   Argentina April bean exports estimated at 1.6 MMT vs. 30,000 tons a month ago and vs. 720,000 tons a year ago

o   Said US April bean exports may fall by 1.0-1.2 MMT and May exports may fall by 1.1 MMT

o   Estimated EU 2013 rapeseed crop at 20.2 MMT (3 year high) vs. 19.24 MMT in 2012

o   Estimated German’s 2013 rapeseed crop at 5.45 MMT vs. 4.82 MMT a year ago

o   Estimated France 2013 rapeseed crop at 5.20 MMT vs. 5.48 MMT a year ago

o   Estimated Britain 2013 rapeseed crop at 2.3 MMT vs. 2.56 MMT a year ago

o   Estimated Poland 2013 rapeseed crop at 2.17 MMT vs. 1.9 MMT a year ago

o   Estimated Czech Republic 2013 rapeseed crop at 1.25 MMT vs. 1.10 MMT a year ago

·         Cordonnier weekly report

o   Expects 2013 US corn projected acreage to fall 1-3 MA due to wet cool weather. Worst case scenario acreage could fall 5 MA . In March USDA estimated 2013 US corn acreage at  97.3 MA

§  Said these acres may be switched to bean acres

o   Estimated 2013 US corn yield at 155-156 BPA

o   Estimated 2013 Brazilian bean crop at 81.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Said Brazilian port conditions have improved in April.

o   Estimated 2013 Brazilian corn crop at 75.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated 2013 Argentine bean crop at 50.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Said about 58% of the Argentine bean crop has been harvested vs. 40% a week ago and vs. 58% a year ago

o   Estimated 2013 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Said about 37% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested vs. 32% a week ago

o   Estimated total South American 2013 bean crop at 144.45 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

o   Estimated total 2013 South American corn crop at 102.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

·         IMEA (Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics)  said Mato Grosso has sold 22% of their 2nd corn crop vs. 47% a year ago due to low prices.

·         IMEA said Mato Gross may not have enough storage space for corn

·         Agritrend estimated ‘13/14 Argentina’s soybean planting area at above 20.0 MH vs. ‘12/13 planted area of 19.1 MH

·         Agritrend estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 55-58 MMT (record high)

·         Japan Ag Min said Japan will not issue a weekly wheat tender this week

·         Analysts estimated Australia’s ‘13/14 wheat exports at 14-15 MMT vs. 19 MMT in ‘12/13 and vs. ‘11/12 record high of 23.0 MMT

·         Analysts said Australia’s 2013 canola planting may fall because of dry weather

·         Rabobank said Australia’s canola production could fall 30% this year because of dry weather

·         Analysts said Ukraine and Russia have almost exhausted their ‘12/13 exportable surplus . They have sold 20.0 MMT of wheat this season

·         Analysts estimated Russia and Ukraine’s wheat exports for the last two months of the ‘12/13 season at 1.0 MMT

·         Frontier said Russia’s weather forecast for May is hot and dry and may damage crop

·         Ukraine Ag Min said as of 4/30/13 total spring grains planted on 5.49 MH . Sunflower planting on 2.8 MH and corn planting on 2.55 MH

·         Ukraine Ag Min said 93.6% of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in good to satisfactory condition

·         Yesterday night/ this morning there were 10 KC wheat deliveries with the date at 2/08/13

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CDT

·         China and Malaysian markets are closed tomorrow for May Day holiday. Trading resumes on Thursday

·         Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

·         Weekly ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT

·         Open outcry option players

o   Macquarie bought 500 July bean 1300 puts and sold 1,000 July bean 1260 puts at even money

o   New Edge bought 1,000 Sept bean 1100/1200 call spreads and sold 1,000 Nov bean 1200/1240 call spreads at 59 ½ debit

o   FI bought 5,500 short dated Sept corn 500/475 put spreads at 6-6 ¼

o   FI bought 2,000 short dated Sept corn 500/450 put spreads at 10 ¼

o   JP Morgan bought 2,000 Sept corn 720 calls at 8

o   Macquarie bought 1,000 week 1 corn 645 puts at 3 ½

o   ABN bought 1,500 Aug corn 600 calls at 29 – 29 ¼ and sold 630 Sept corn at 585

o   ABN bought 1,500 Aug corn 570 puts at 27-27 ¼ and bought 600 Sept futures at 588

o   Tenco bought 1,000 July corn 600/540 put spreads at 6 ¾ -6 7/8

o   ICap sold 1,000 July corn 660/690/710/740 call condors at 6 ¼ credit

o   New Edge bought 1,000 Dec wheat 700/750 call spreads at 26-26 ¼

o   New Edge sold 1,000 Dec wheat 750/700 call spreads at 25 ¼

o   ABN sold 1,000 June wheat 690 puts at 5 ½

o   FC Stone sold 400 June meal 410 puts at 6.75-8.10

o   Mizuho bought 2,000 July bean oil 50/53 call spreads and sold 2,000 July bean oil 48 puts at even money

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat bought 5K

·         Corn sold 10K

·         Beans sold 5K

·         Meal sold 1K

·         Bean oil sold 2K

Crush Quotes

 

                OPEN         CLOSE

MAY      17-20.5        15-17

JLY          53.5-54        53.5-54

AUG      54-55            55-56

SEP        70.5-71         71.5-72

OCT       69-70             70-71

DEC       62-62.5          63-63.5

JAN       57.5-59          58.5-59.5

MCH     59-60              59.5-60

MAY      59-60              59.5-60

Crush Players

Knight bought 50 July crush at 55

Knight sold 50 August crush at 55.5

Rand sold 2,150 July crush at 54-56

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg