From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 4/22/13

News

·         On Friday Informa estimated 2013 US winter wheat crop at 1.581 BB vs. previous estimate of 1.631 BB

·         On Friday Informa estimated 2013 US wheat yield at 45.7 BPA vs. 47.2 BPA a year ago

·         Israel seeks 100K corn , 60K feed wheat, and 20K barley optional origin for May- August shipment

·         World Animal Health Association said bird flu found in German turkeys a different kind (H5N1) then the one in China (H7N9).

·         Safras e Mercado weekly report as of 4/19/13

o   Brazilian bean harvest 86% complete vs. 82% a week ago vs. 81% a year ago and vs. 85% five year average

o   Estimated Brazil bean crop at 82.495 MMT

o   Estimated Argentine bean crop at 50.0 MMT

o   Estimated Paraguay bean crop at 8.0 MMT

o   Estimated Bolivia bean crop at 2.78 MMT

o   Estimated total South American bean crop at 146.275 MMT

o   Brazil first corn crop 70% harvested vs. 83% a year ago

o   Brazil second corn crop estimated at 41.56 MMT vs. 37.977 MMT a year ago

·         Weekly US export inspections came out today at 10 am CDT at

o   Wheat 24.848 MB expecting 18-24 MB

o   Corn 12.401 MB expecting 10-15 MB

o   Beans 4.907 MB expecting 6-11 MB

·         Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CDT expecting

o   Corn planting 5-8% complete vs. 29% a year ago and vs. 16% 5 year average

o   Winter wheat condition to fall 1-2% from a week ago

·         China, Germany, France, and Eurozone flash PMI comes out tonight/tomorrow

·         Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CDT

·         ECB rate decision meeting next week, speculation ECB will cut rates.

·         Open outcry option players

o   Vision bought 1,200 Nov bean 1000 puts at 11-11 ¼

o   New Edge bought 750 Nov bean 1000 puts sold 1,500 Nov 900 puts at 4 ¾ debit

o   JP Morgan bought 1,000 Nov bean 1120 puts sold 500 Nov bean 1200 puts at 2 ½ -3 debit

o   RJO bought 1,200 Dec corn 500/450 put spreads at 16

o   ABN bought 1,000 Dec corn 600 calls at 22

o   New Edge bought 1,000 May corn 670/680 call spreads at 5/8

o   New Edge bought 1,000 May corn 660/680 call spreads at 2 ½

o   Macquarie bought 2,250 July corn 600 puts at 16 1/8 and bought 765 July futures at 624

o   Tenco sold 800 March wheat 770 calls at 47-48

o   Tenco bought 500 March wheat 850 calls at 26

o   Tenco bought 500 March wheat 860 calls at 24

o   Tenco bought 400 Dec wheat 860 calls at 17 ½

o   Tenco bought 200 Dec wheat 850 calls at 19

o   New Edge sold 700 Dec bean oil 49/53 call spreads at 105

o   No big players in meal options today

Estimated Fund Activity

·         Wheat sold 3K

·         Corn sold 7K

·         Beans sold 7K

·         Meal sold 2K

·         Bean oil sold 3K

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

K vol 25 650 str 15-16

M vol 25 620 str 37-38 ½

N vol 26 ¼ 620 str 52 ½ -53 ½

U vol 29 ½ 560 str 76-77

Z vol 27 ½ 530 str 88 ½ -89 ½

H vol 26 540 str 101 ½-103 ½

Beans

K vol 17 1410 str 22-23

M vol 19 ¼ 1360 str 62-64

N vol 20 1360 str 87-89

Q vol 21 ½ 1320 str 115-117 ½

X vol 21 1200 str 144-146

F vol 20 1200 str 156 ½ -160 ½

Wheat

K vol 24 ½ 700 str 15-17

M vol 27 700 str 45-46

N vol 27 ¼ 700 str 61-63

U vol 27 ½ 710 str 90-92

Z vol 26 ½ 720 str 114-117

H vol 24 ½ 740 str 128-132

Minneapolis wheat

K vol 25 820 str 15-30

N vol 23 800 str 52-60

U vol 23 800 str 75-85

Z vol 23 800 str 100-110

KC Wheat

K vol 23 ½ 740 14-18

N vol 24 740 str 56-63

U vol 25 ½ 750 str 86-97

Z vol 25 ½ 770 str 114-124

Meal

K 410 str 7.50-9.50

M vol 22 400 str 21.5-23.5

N vol 23 400 str 29.5-31.5

Q vol 22 380 str 35-37

U vol 22 360 str 37-39

V vol 21.5 340 str 38.5-41.5

Z vol 21.5 340 str 44-47

Bean oil

K vol 18.5 48.5 str 70-85

M vol 18.5 48.5 str 205-225

N vol 18.25 48.5 str 275-295

Q vol 18.5 48.5 str 350-375

U vol 18.5 48.5 str 400-425

V vol 18.25 48 str 425-450

Z vol 18.25 48 str 510-535

Crush quotes

 

                 OPEN          CLOSE

MAY       19-21           18-20

JLY           44-45.5        45.5-46

AUG       50-50.5        49.5-40

SEP         66-67            65.5-67

OCT        68-69            67-68

DEC        61.5-62         61.5-62.5

JAN        57-58.5         57-58

MCH      57-59.5          57-58.5

No big players in the crush today.

 

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg