From the Floor – An Afternoon Recap 4/10/13

News
• Click on link for complete detailed USDA report http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
• China’s Ministry of Commerce expects 2013 corn planting area to increase by 1.22% from 2012 area
• China’s Ministry of Commerce expects 2013 bean planting area to decrease by .05% from 2012 area
• China’s Ministry of Commerce expects 2013 oilseed planting area to increase by 1.08% from 2012 area
• China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s April bean imports at 5.7 MMT vs. March imports of 3.84 MMT
• CNGOIC estimated May and June China bean imports at above 6.0 MMT per month
• Chinese industry analysts estimated China’s April bean imports at 4.27 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.80 MMT and vs. 4.88 MMT in April 2012
• CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘12/13 corn ending stocks at 5.33 MMT vs. ‘11/12 ending stocks of 10.37 MMT
• Chinese industry analysts said corn stocks at northern ports at 3.2 MMT vs. 1.9 MMT a year ago
• 33 confirmed human cases of bird flu with 9 deaths in China
• Lanworth estimates
o ‘13/14 US corn crop at 13.72 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.64 BB
o ‘13/14 US bean crop at 3.380 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.455 BB
o ‘13/14 US wheat crop at 2.020 BB vs. previous estimate of 2.023 BB
o ‘12/13 Argentina corn crop at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 25.5 MMT
o ‘12/13 Argentina bean crop at 49.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 50.5 MMT
o ‘12/13 Brazil corn crop estimated at 76.0 vs. previous estimate of 76.4 MMT
o ‘12/13 Brazil bean crop estimated at 81.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 81.1 MMT
• Mexico’s Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at 22.45 MMT vs. 2012 crop of 21.35 MMT
• IMEA said Mato Grosso bean harvest is 99.1% complete vs. 73.4%a month ago
• IMEA said Mato Grosso bean crop is 75.8% sold
• DERAL said Parana bean harvest is 88% complete vs. 82% a week ago
• DERAL said 86% of Parana’s bean crop is in good condition and 1% is in poor condition
• Russia sold 51,840 tons of intervention grain making the total since 10/23 2.764 MMT sold
• Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 5.2 MMT of grain between July 1st – April 1st vs. 8.3 MMT a year ago
• Kazakhstan Ag Min said they may export 2 MMT of grain before the end of the season
• India’s April 1st wheat stocks at 24.2 MMT vs. March stocks of 27.1 MMT and vs. government target of 4.0 MMT
• India’s April 1st rice stocks at 35.5 MMT vs. March stocks of 35.8 MMT and vs. government target of 12.2 MMT
• FranceAgriMer estimated French ‘12/13 soft wheat ending stocks at 2.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
• FranceAgriMer estimated French ‘12/13 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 10.1 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
• FranceAgriMer estimated French ‘12/13 corn ending stocks at 2.97 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.78 MMT
• France customs data showed France exported 6.92 MMT of soft wheat outside the EU between July – February up 14% from a year ago
• France customs data showed France exported 1.21 MMT of soft wheat outside the EU in February
• South Korea bought 25,556 tons of US and Australian rice for July shipment
• Today was the 4th day of the index fund roll . Roll ends tomorrow. In the open outcry market
o Wheat – 300 May July sold at 6 ¼
o Corn – 2,000 May July sold at 16 ¼ -16 ¾
o Beans – 500 May July sold at 24 ½ -25 ¼
o Meal – 1,000 May July sold at .70-1.00
o Bean oil – 1,000 May July sold at 19
• China to auction 100K rapeseed oil from reserves tomorrow
• Weekly US jobless claims comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT
• Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CDT expecting
o Wheat 300-600K
o Corn 250-500K
o Beans 500-800K
o Meal 75-200K
o Bean oil 0-15K
• Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CDT expecting – 21 billion

Open outcry option players
• Corn:
• ABN bot 1000 K 680-720 call spreads
• ABN bot 1500 K 680 calls/sold 3000 K 720 calls
• ABN sold 1000 K 660 calls
• ABN bot 1000 Z 520-500 put spreads
• Macquarie sold 1500 K 680 calls
• Macquarie sold 500 K 670 calls
• Tenco sold 1000 M 600 puts/sold 260 CN
• JPM bot 1500 short dated N 590 calls/sold 750 short dated N 550 calls
• JPM bot 600 M 680 calls/sold 200 K 680 calls/sold 200 N 680 calls
• JPM bot 500 K 700 calls
• JPM sold 500 Z 500 puts
• ADM bot 1000 Z 450 puts
• ADM sold 900 K 640 straddles
• RJO sold 500 Z 550 puts
• GFI bot 500 Z 540 straddles
• Beans:
• Rand bot 1000 K 1300 puts
• FI bot 800 K 1360 puts/bot 192 SK
• JPM bot 750 N 1440 calls/sold 210 SN
• JPM sold 350 K 1400 straddles
• Rosenthal bot 550 X 1480 calls/sold 1100 X 1580 calls
• Rosenthal bot 600 X 1460 calls/sold 1200 X 1560 calls
• ADM sold 500 N 1400 calls
• ADM bot 500 K 1350 puts
• Bunge bot 400 M 1350 puts
• FCS sold 500 X 1420-1500 call spreads
• Wheat:
• Tenco bot 2000 K 690-670 put spreads
• Macquarie sold 500 K 700 straddles
• JPM bot 400 K 700 straddles
• Oil:
• ADM bot 500 N 50 puts
• RJO bot 500 K 49 ½-48 put spreads
• RJO bot 300 N 45 puts
• JPM sold 500 K 49 puts
• JPM sold 300 K 51 puts
• Newedge bot 500 K 49 ½-48 put spreads
• Meal:
• ABN bot 200 N 380 puts/sold 400 Q 420 calls

Estimated Fund Activity
• Wheat sold 5K
• Corn bought 7K
• Beans sold 5K
• Meal sold 1,500
• Bean oil bought 1,000

Closing vols and ATM straddles

Corn
K vol 23 650 str 25-26 ½
M vol 22 ¾ 630 str 39 ½ -41
N vol 24 630 str 53 ½ -54 ½
U vol 28 560 str 75-76
Z vol 26 540 str 87-88
H vol 24 ¼ 550 str 98-100

Beans
K vol 15 ¾ 1390 str 37-39
M vol 16 ¾ 1370 str 63 ½-65
N vol 17 ¼ 1370 str 83 ½-85
Q vol 19 ¾ 1340 str 112-115
X vol 20 ½ 1240 str 147-149

Wheat
K vol 24 ½ 700 str 29-31
M vol 25 700 str 47-53
N vol 25 ½ 700 str 63-64
U vol 26 ½ 710 str 89-91
Z vol 25 ½ 730 str 115-117
H vol 24 740 str 129-133

Minneapolis wheat
K vol 19 780 str 21-28
N vol 20 780 str 51-59
U vol 22 780 str 77-87
Z vol 22 790 str 99-109

KC wheat
K vol 23 730 str 27-31
N vol 23 ½ 740 str 59-66
U vol 24 ½ 750 str 85-94
Z vol 24 ½ 770 str 114-123

Meal
K vol 20.5 390 str 13.5-15
M vol 21 390 str 21.5-23.5
N vol 21.25 390 str 29-30.5
Q vol 21.75 380 str 35-38
Z vol 21.75 340 str 45-48

Bean oil
K vol 16.5 50 str 125-140
M vol 16.75 50 str 220-245
N vol 16.75 50 str 285-300
Q vol 17.5 50 str 360-390
Z vol 17.75 50 str 530-560

Crush quotes

OPEN CLOSE
MAY 22.5-23.5 21-22
JLY 48-48.5 47-47.5
AUG 53-56 54-55
SEP 68-69.5 67-68.5
OCT 63.5-66 64.5-55
DEC 59.5-60.5 60-61
JAN 58-59.5 58-59.5
MCH 58-62 59-62

Crush players

ABN sold 100 July crush at 47.75

Knight bought 50 May sold 50 July at 26

Rand sold 140 Sept at 68

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg