From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Weekly US export inspections report came out this morning at 10 am CST
    • Wheat at 19.76 MB expecting 11-15 MB
    • Corn at 40.246 MB expecting 28-32 MB
    • Beans at 60.430 MB expecting 48-55 MB
  • Oil World estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean imports at 70.0 MMT
  • Safras e Mercado Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimates
    • Bean crop at 89.453 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 82.125 MMT
      • Said 93% of the crop is planted vs. 88% a week ago vs. 94% a year ago and vs., 91% five year average
    • Corn crop at 77.238 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop 82.070 MMT
      • Said 99% of the summer corn crop has been planted vs. 97% a year ago
    • Wheat crop at 5.525 MMT vs. 4.698 MMT in ‘12/13
    • Rapeseed crop at 68,000 tons vs. 55,000 tons in ‘12/13
    • Sunseed crop at 104,000 tons vs. 109,000 tons in ‘12/13
    • Cotton crop 2.535 MMT vs. 2.056 MMT in ‘12/13
  • France farm ministry estimated France’s 2014 soft wheat area at 4.9 MH down 1.3% from a year ago
  • France farm ministry estimated France 2014 rapeseed area at 1.5 MH up 6.8% from a year ago
  • Egypt FIHC seeks 40K sunflower oil for Jan-Feb shipment
  • Egypt Meditrade seeks 20,000 bean oil and seeks 20,000 sunflower oil for Jan/Feb shipment
  • TALK Egypt GASC may tender for wheat soon.
  • Today was the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends on Thursday. GS is rolling long Jan beans, meal, and bean oil to March .
    • Beans =
    • Meal =
    • Bean oil =
  • USDA December supply and demand report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . See below for estimates.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Open outcry option players
    • New Edge bought 3,700 May bean 1200/1100 put spreads at 11-11 ¼
    • Rosenthal sold 700 Jan bean 1320 calls at 29-29 ¼
    • RJO bought 1,000 Jan corn 420 puts at 2 5/8
    • FC Stone bought 1,000 Feb corn 440 calls at 11 3/8-12
    • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Dec wheat 650/630 put spreads at 9 5/8 and bought 145 Dec futures at 651
    • JP Morgan bought 1,250 March wheat 750 calls at 2 5/8 and sold 113 March futures at 651
    • ABN sold 1,000 March wheat 700 calls and bought 500 Feb wheat 660 calls at 1 ¼ – 1 ½ credit
    • Rosenthal bought 2,000 March wheat 650 puts sold 2,000 May wheat 690 calls at 1-3 debit
    • RJO sold 300 Jan meal 450 calls at 5.00
  • Conab comes out tomorrow morning with their Brazilian ‘13/14 crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 Bean crop estimated at 87.9-90.2 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean planting area estimated at 29.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports estimated at 45.9 MMT
    • ‘13/14 domestic bean consumption estimated at 40.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Total corn crop estimated at 78.5-79.2 MMT
    •  ‘13/14 corn exports estimated at 18.0 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 4.81 MMT
    • ‘13/14 wheat imports estimated at 6.7 MMT
    • ‘13/14 Cotton crop estimated at 1.6 MMT
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board November data report comes out on tomorrow morning . Based on a Reuters poll.
    • Palm oil output average estimate 1.95 MMT vs. October output of 1.97 MMT
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.98 MMT vs. October stocks of  1.85 MMT
    • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.59 MMT vs. October exports of 1.66 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Dec 1-10th palm oil exports come out tomorrow morning.

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat sold 1K
  • Corn bought 5K
  • Beans bought 8K
  • Meal bought 4K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

F vol 18 ¾ 440 str 14-15

G vol 20 ¾ 440 str 26-26 ½

H vol 20 ¼ 440 str 32-33

K vol 20 ¾ 450 str 45-46

N vol 21 ¾ 450 str 56 ½-57 ½

U vol 22 ½ 460 str 70 ½-72

Z14 vol 21 ¾ 470 str 78-79 ½

 

Beans

F vol 15 ¼ 1340 str 36 ½-37 ½

G vol 16 ½ 1320 str 61-63

H vol 16 ¼ 1320 str 76 ½-78

K vol 16 ¼ 1300 str 100-103

N vol 16 ½ 1300 str 123-126

X vol 16 ¼ 1180 str 138-142

 

Wheat

F vol 17 ½ 650 str 19-21

H vol 18 ¾ 650 str 43-45

K vol 20 660 str 62-64

N vol 19 ¾ 650 str 78-81

U vol 21 ¾ 660 str 95-98

 

KC Wheat

F vol 14 ¼ 700 str 18-20

H vol 16 ½ 700 str 41-43

K vol 17 ¼ 700 str 58-61

N vol 18 ¾ 690 str 73-76

 

Minneapolis wheat

F vol 16 675 str 15-22

H vol 15 680 str 34-40

K vol 16 690 str 54-61

N vol 18 690 str 38-76

U vol 18 ¼ 700 str 78-87

Z vol 18 ¼ 710 str 90-102

 

Meal

F vol 23.5 440 str 18.5-19.5

H vol 22 430 str 34-36

K vol 20 420 str 40.5-42.5

N vol 19.25 410 str 44.5-46.5

Q vol 18 400 str 43-47

 

Bean oil

F vol 16 40 str 110-125

G vol 16.5 40.5 str 185-200

H vol 16.75 40.5 str 230-250

K vol 16.75 41 str 310-340

N vol 16 41.5 str 360-390

Q vol 16 41.5 str 390-430

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN               CLOSE

FZZ       1.00-1.05        1.00-1.10

JAN      62-62.5            63.5-64

MCH    62-62.5            62.5-63

MAY     57-58               58-58.5

JLY         57-58               57-57.5

AUG     62-65               62-63.5

SEP       84.5-85.5        84.5-86

OCT      77-78               77-78

DEC      72.5-73             73-73.5

 

Crush players

 

ABN sold 80 May at 57.25-57.5

 

EDF sold 70 July at 57

 

New Edge sold 50 Jan at 61.5

 

Estimates for tomorrow’s  USDA supply and demand and world production report. Report comes out at 11 am CST.

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .540 BB, range of estimates are .404-.570 BB and November USDA estimate was .565 BB.
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.871 BB, range of estimates are 1.737-2.013 BB and November USDA estimate was 1.887 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) average estimate .153 BB, range of estimates are .118-.170 BB and November USDA estimate was .170 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 179.11 MMT , range of estimates are 176.30-182.20 MMT and November USDA estimate was 164.33 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 163.30 MMT , range of estimates are 156.95-165.50 MMT and November USDA estimate was 164.33 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 71.64 MMT, range of estimates are 70-75.79 MMT and November USDA estimate was 70.23 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 Argentina and Brazil crops

  • Argentine corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate is 25.583 MMT, range of estimates are 24-27.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 26.0 MMT
  • Argentine beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 55.329 MMT, range of estimates are 52.5-59.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 53.5 MMT
  • Argentine wheat (10 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.0 MMT , range of estimates are 9.5-10.5 MMT and USDA November estimate was 11.0 MMT
  • Brazil corn (12 analysts surveyed) average estimate 70.392 MMT, range of estimates are 68.5-72.0 MMT and USDA November estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazil beans (14 analysts surveyed) average estimate 88.736 MMT, range of estimates are 88.0-90.4 MMT and USDA November estimate was 88.0 MMT
  • Brazil wheat (9 analysts surveyed) average estimate 4.702 MMT, range of estimate are 4.5-4.77 MMT and USDA November estimate was 4.75 MMT