From The Floor-An Afternoon Recap

News

  • Egypt bought 60,000 tons of French wheat for Dec shipment
  • Shanghai’s JC Intelligence said China did cancel 1 cargo of US corn this month which may delay US corn shipments to China.
  • JC Intelligence estimated China’s ‘13/14 corn imports at 6.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. USDA estimate of 7.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global wheat crop at 706.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 707.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global bean crop at 289.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘13/14 global corn crop at 963.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Lanworth estimated ‘14/15 US wheat crop at 63.0 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘14/15 Russian wheat crop at 51.7 MMT
  • Lanworth estimated ‘14/15 Ukraine wheat crop at 23.0 MMT
  • EIA – September US biodiesel production at 127 million gallons vs. 128 million in August
  • EIA – Bean oil used for biodiesel in September at 502 million pounds vs. 510 million in August
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 Ukraine grain exports at 32.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 32.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 exports of 23.0 MMT
  • Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 Ukraine grain crop at a record 61.0+ MMT vs. 46.2 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 13.3 MMT of grain between July 1st – Nov 27th vs. 11.5 MMT a year ago
  • Kazakhstan’s Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 3.2 MMT of grain between July 1st – Nov 27th vs. 3.1 MMT a year ago
  • Mississippi river reopened after oil spill on Monday
  • UK farm minister estimated ‘13/14 wheat imports at 1.615 MMT vs. 2.944 MMT a year ago
  • UK farm minister said UK imported 828,959 tons of wheat between July-September
  • Algeria government said 2013 grain crop at 4.9 MMT vs. 5.1 MMT a year ago
  • Morocco seeks 75,000 tons of local wheat.
  • Hungary’s Ag Min estimated 2013 corn crop at 6.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.7 MMT and vs. 2012 crop of 4.74 MMT .
  • Hungary’s Ag Min said corn harvest is 99% complete and average yields are 5.6 TPH
  • See attachment for Thanksgiving holiday schedule. The grain market will not reopen until Friday at 830 am CST.
  • Today was position day for Dec futures. Deliveries will come out tonight. Expectations are
    • Wheat 100-500 (one analyst said we could see more than 500). As of yesterday afternoon there were 213 receipts registered.
    • KC wheat 0 (one analyst said , should there be some deliveries (can never rule it out) they should be minimal). As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 receipts registered.
    • Minneapolis wheat 500-1,000
    • Corn 0-200. – Analysts said the market was acting like there will be deliveries today. As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 receipts registered.
    • Meal 0. As of yesterday afternoon there were 0 receipts registered
    • Bean oil 500-3,000. As of yesterday afternoon there were 9,921 receipts registered
  • Veg Oil conference in Indonesia starts tomorrow. James Fry and Dorab Mistry will give 2014 palm oil forecasts
  • Friday is month end
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST expecting
    • Wheat 375-625K
    • Corn 800K – 1.1 M
    • Beans 700K – 1.3 M
    • Meal 150-300K
    • Bean oil 10-25K
  • Rogers roll begins on Friday and ends on Tuesday. They will be rolling long Jan positions into March , beans, meal, and bean oil.
  • Weekly COT report is delayed until Monday at 230 pm CST.

 

Open outcry option players

 

Corn:

Tenco bot 2500 H 420 puts/bot 1050 CH

ABN sold 1000 G 430 calls/420 put straddles

ABN sold 900 U 520-600 call spreads

JPM bot 2000 F 410 puts

 

Beans:

GFI bot 2000 H 1300 calls/sold 2000 F 1300 calls

Rosenthal bot 1500 N 1300 calls/sold 1500 X 1200 calls

Rand sold 500 F/H 20 cents cso calls

ADM sold 500 F 1320 calls

Morgan Stanley sold 500 X 1160 straddles/bot 500 N 1300 straddles

RJO sold 500 week 5 1340 calls

Rand bot 2,000 F 1300 puts

ADM bot 500 F 1360 calls

 

Wheat:

ABN bot 300 G 670 calls

MLP bot 300 F 735 calls

 

Meal:

JPM bot 2000 F 450 calls

Macquarie sold 500 F 430 puts/sold 500 Z 320 puts

Macquarie bot 250 F 460 calls

Macquarie bot 350 F 400-380 put spreads

ADM bot 400 K 410-390 put spreads

ADM bot 200 H 420 puts/sold 200 N 380 puts

Newedge bot 200 H 400 puts

FCS bot 200 H 420 puts

 

Oil:

RJO bot 400 H 45 ½ calls

Newedge sold 250 H 41 ½ puts/bot 250 G 40 ½ puts

Rosenthal sold 200 F 40 ½ puts

 

Estimated fund activity

  • Wheat bought 3K
  • Corn bought 4K
  • Beans sold 4K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil sold 3K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

F vol 16 ½ 430 str 16 ¼-17 ¼

G vol 19 ½ 430 str 26 ¼-27 ¼

H vol 19 ¾ 430 str 32 ½-33 ½

K vol 20 430 str 44 ½-45 ½

N vol 22 ½ 440 str 56-57 ½

U vol 22 ½ 450 str 68 ½-70.

Z vol 21 ½ 460 str 77-78

 

Beans

F vol 15 ½ 1320 str 44 ½-46 ½

G vol 16 ½ 1310 str 68-70

H vol 16 ¾ 1310 str 82 ½-85

K vol 16 1300 str 101-104

N vol 16 1280 str 121-124

X vol 16 ¼ 1160 str 142-147

 

Wheat

F vol 16 660 str 24-26

H vol 18 ½ 660 str 46-48

K vol 19 ½ 670 str 65-67

N vol 20 ¾ 660 str 80-83

U vol 21 ¾ 670 str 97-100

 

KC Wheat

F vol 15 710 str 23-26

H vol 16 710 str 43-46

K vol 17 ¼ 710 str 60-64

N vol 18 ¾ 700 str 76-80

 

Minneapolis wheat

H vol 14 710 str 36-42

K vol 16 710 str 55-61

N vol 17 720 str 68-76

U vol 17 720 str 78-86

Z vol 17 730 str 90-100

 

Meal

F vol 23.25 430 str 23-25

H vol 22 420 str 36-38

K vol 19.5 410 str 40-43

N vol 18 400 str 42.5-45.50

Q vol 17.25 390 str 42.5-45.5

 

Bean oil

F vol 15 40.5 str 130-1475

G vol 16.25 40.5 str 205-225

H vol 16.25 40.5 str 240-265

K vol 16 41 str 310-330

N vol 15.75 41.5 str 365-390

Q vol 15.75 41.5 str 395-425

 

Crush quotes

 

OPEN              CLOSE

FZZ          1.09-1.11        1.00-1.05

JAN         70-70.5            68-70

MCH        62.5-63           63.5-64

MAY        58-58.5           58-59

JLY            57.5-58           57-59

AUG         62-64.5          62-65

SEP           81-85              85-85.5

OCT          75-77              77-77.5

DEC           71-72             70-71.5

 

 

Happy Thanksgiving!!!