Additional News From The Grain Floor

China’s Customs Data – China’s May imports

  • Wheat 283,177 tons down 49.12% from a year ago
  • Barley 259,517 tons up 1.97% from a year ago
  • Corn 66,612 tons down 42.73% from a year ago
  • Rice 160,555 tons down 62.44% from a year ago
  • Soybean 5,097,438 tons down 3.42% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 472,718 tons up 248% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 175,331 tons up 81.92% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 3,943 tons down 31.71% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 104,701 tons up 73.54% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 2,048 tons down 51.34% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 474,218 tons up 28% from a year ago
  • Cotton 345,778 tons down 31% from a year ago

 

China’s Customs Data – China’s January – May 2013 imports

  • Wheat 1,177,733 tons down 40.25% from a year ago
  • Barley 825,892 tons down 38.82% from a year ago
  • Corn 1,514,137 tons down 19.31% from a year ago
  • Rice 1,153,867 tons, up 19.49% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 20,565,589 tons down 12.21% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 1,655,157 tons up 37.88% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 750,234 tons up 90.36% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 8,782 tons down 96.16% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 324,715 tons down 27.85% from a year ago
  • Soymeal 10,587 tons down 72.89% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 2,550,869 tons up 13.85% from a year ago
  • Cotton 2.14 MMT down 17% from a year ago

 

From Brazilian contact – Schutter Group.

  • For the past week or so there has been a sequence of demonstrations in quite a few cities all over Brazil based on rise in tariffs for busses used for public  transportation .  Demonstrators have closed streets in main capitals and access to and from main highways. So far, port operations have not been affected, but it may in the near future
  • TALK of the possible downgrade of Brazil’s credit rating
  • Rainy weather has been delaying shipments in Paranagua port.
  • Cooler temps and excessive rains in southern Brazil

 

ABIOVE – Brazilian crop estimates from yesterday

  • Soybeans (Jan ’12 to Jan ’13)-
    • ‘12/13 production at 81.6 MMT vs. previous report of 82.3 MMT (April);
    • ‘12/13 crushing at 37.2 MMT vs. previous report of 38.3 MMT;
    • ‘12/13 exports at 39 MMT vs. previous report of 38.20 MMT;
    • ’12/13 carry out at stock 2.84 MMT vs. previous report of 3.40 MMT;
  • Soybean meals (Feb ’13 to Jan ’14)-
    • ‘13/14 production at 28.3 MMT vs. previous report of 29.1 MMT;
    • ‘13/14 exports at 14.2 MMT vs. previous report of 15 MMT;
    • ‘14/14 domestic use at 14 MMT unchanged from previous report;
    • ‘13/14 carry out stock at 796k vs. previous report of 754k;
  • Soybean Oils-
    • ‘13/14 production at 7.14 MMT vs. previous report of 7.35 MMT;
    • ‘13/14 exports at 1.6 MMT unchanged from previous report;
    • ‘13/14 domestic consumption at 5.5 MMT vs. previous report of 5.7 MMT;
    • ‘13/14 carryout stocks at 266k vs. previous report of 274k;
  • Crushing-
    • →Feb/April crushing referring to ‘13/14 at 7.21 MMT vs. 10.2 MMT in ‘12/13;
    • This is owing to late harvest in MT and logistic problems in year ’13;

 

 

India’s government approves the sale of 10.0 MMT of wheat and the sale of 500K tons of rice from reserves in the open market. As of June 1st India’s wheat stocks were at 44.0 MMT

 

India may allow export of an additional 2.0 MMT of wheat next week , ministers put off the decision at today’s meeting

 

Russia’s Ag Min said south Russia harvest has started 10 days earlier than a year ago as of June 20th Russia had harvested 1.0 MMT of grain on 228,000 hectares with an average yield of 4.49 TPH vs. 2.98 TPH a year ago . Including 162,200 tons of wheat on 54,100 hectares with an average yield of 3.0 TPH vs. 3.08 TPH a year ago . Also including 774,400 tons of barley on 148,800 hectares with an average yield of 5.17 TPH vs. 3.64 TPH a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 95.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 93.0 MMT

 

Russia Ag Min estimated 2013 wheat crop at 54.0 MMT

 

Egypt’s supply minister said Egypt will NOT buy wheat internationally until the end of 2013.

 

Egypt’s supply minister said Egypt was enough wheat stocks to last until December.

 

Egypt GASC said they will buy wheat internationally by the end of the year

 

There were reports yesterday that Egypt would start importing wheat internationally  in July

 

Bangladesh official said 2 South Korean companies default on 100K tons of wheat

 

Indonesia Bulog to import 25K US beans every month to control prices . This will start in July

 

Mild strain of birdflu found and contained on Arkansas poultry farm and does not appear to be a threat to other poultry farms

 

USDA estimated Poland’s ‘13/14 wheat crop 9.2 MMT up 7% from a year ago

 

50 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Stats Canada comes out on Tuesday at 730 am CDT with their acreage report. Based on a Bloomberg survey of 10 analysts

  • Canada wheat area average estimate 26.183 MA, range of estimates are 25.3-27 MA  . In April Stats Canada estimated wheat area at 26.618 MA
  • Canada canola area average estimate 19.635 MA, range of estimates are 19-20.117 MA, In April they estimated canola area at 19.133 MA
  • Canada barley area average estimate 7.158 MA, range of estimates are 6.8-7.5 MA. In April they estimated the area at 7.24 MA
  • Canada oat area average estimate 3.27 MA, range of estimates are 3.0-3.5 MA. In April they estimated the area at 3.379 MA
  • Canada corn area average estimate 3.743 MA, range of estimates are 3.4-3.95 MA. In April they estimated the area at 3.813 MA

 

FranceAgrimer – France crop progress report as of June 17th

  • Corn crop 58% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 72% a year ago
  • Corn planting 95% complete vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 100% a year ago
  • Soft wheat crop 69% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Winter barley crop 68% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 66% a year ago
  • Durum wheat crop 62% good to excellent up 1% from a week ago and vs. 59% a year ago
  • Spring barley crop 72% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 89% a year ago

 

COCERAL estimated EU 28 2013 soft wheat crop at 130.74 MMT vs. previous estimate of 127.77 MMT

 

COCERAL estimated 2013 EU barley crop at 56.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.8 MMT

 

COCERAL estimated 2013 EU 28 corn crop at 66.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 64.4 MMT

 

COCERAL estimated 2013 EU 28 oilseed crop at 28.89 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.85 MMT including 19.94 MMT of rapeseed

 

Moving averages

  • CN 100 day 666 ½
  • CZ 100 day 550 ½
  • WN 50 day 701 ¼
  • WU 50 day 709 ¼
  • BON 50 day 4894

 

 

Players in option pit so far

  • ABN sold 700 Nov bean 1240 puts at 52-52 ¼
  • Rand bought 1,000 Sept corn 620/650 call spreads  at 9
  • Jefferies sold 1,000 Sept corn 540 call at 67 ½
  • Rand bought 1,000 week 4 corn 560p/630c combo at 1 ½
  • XFA bought 1,000 Dec corn 600/630 call spreads at 8-8 ¼
  • Tenco bought 700 Aug wheat 740 calls and sold 140 Sept 710 straddle at 3 ¾
  • JP Morgan bought 1,000 Aug bean oil 45 puts at 20
  • Rosenthal sold 500 July meal 450 puts at 3.00

 

 

Reminder: July options expire today at 115 pm CDT

 

I will not be putting out an afternoon recap today.

 

Have a nice weekend

 

Best Regards,

 

Kate Rosenberg