News From the Grain Floor 4/05/13

Good morning

Once you get the right image the details aren’t that important.
Abbie Hoffman

USDA announced 120K tons of new crop US corn sold to unknown

Index fund roll begins today and ends Thursday April 11th. They will be rolling their long May positions into July in corn, beans, wheat, meal, and bean oil.

New hours begin Sunday night. (see attachment) Sunday night trading begins at 7 pm CST and will trade nonstop until 745 am CST when the market will pause for 45 minutes. At 830 am CST both the electronic and open outcry market will open and trade until 115 pm CST.

CBOT grain markets as of 902 am CST
• SK down 9 ¼ at 1362 ¾ volume of 18,286
• CK up 4 ¼ at 634 ¼ volume of 15,249
• WK up 1 ½ at 695 ½ volume of 8,956
• SMK down 4.20 at 392.90 volume of 6,722
• BOK up 19 at 4874 volume of 13,371
• RRK up 4.50 at 1571 volume of 138

Crude and dollar lower. Gold and silver higher

Nikkei up 1.576%
Hang Seng down 2.733%

China is on holiday. Trading resumes on Monday.

Tensions in North Korea continue.

North Korea has told Britain it cannot guarantee diplomats’ safety after April 10th in event of conflict – British government source (Reuters)

March unemployment report came out this morning
• March non-farm payrolls +88K expecting +200K
• March unemployment rate 7.6% expecting 7.7%
• February non-farm payrolls revised to 268K from 236K

Palm oil down 36

TALK continues of China buying 10-14 cargoes of US soft red wheat . NOT confirmed.

South Korea bought small volumes of Australian noodle wheat for May shipment

Malaysia seeks 120K optional origin corn for June shipment

Philippines seek 50K optional origin feed wheat for July shipment

Jordan seeks 100K optional origin wheat for June/July shipment

India PEC canceled tender for 6,300 Indonesia or Malaysian origin palm oil for May shipment

India MMTC received no bids in government wheat export tender to sell 65K tons of wheat for May shipment

Chinese bird flu
• Reports of a new strain of bird flu in China continues.
• 14 cases in humans and 6 deaths.
• Countries are banning Chinese poultry.
• Shanghai will close all live poultry markets starting tomorrow and will remain close indefinitely
• Over 20,000 birds have been destroyed

Rosario’s Grains Exchange said Argentine farmers have sold 10.1 MMT of ‘12/13 beans vs. 15.3 MMT a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association in India said India exported 430,407 tons of oilmeal in March vs. 628,337 tons (down 32% )a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association in India said Japan imported only 41,031 tons of oilmeal from India in March vs. 152,365 tons a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association in India said Iran imported 142,043 tons of oilmeal from India in March vs. 47,000 tons a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association in India said India exported 4.85 MMT of oilmeal in ‘12/13 (season ended March 31st) vs. 5.6 MMT (down 13% ) a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association in India said India exported 3.4 MMT of meal in ‘12/13 vs. 3.8 MMT in ‘11/12

Russia exported 331,000 tons of wheat in January – February vs. 1.82 MMT a year ago and imported 105,700 tons vs. 8K tons a year ago

Mexico Ag Min said Mexico’s 2012 corn production at 21.35 MMT vs. 17.64 MMT (up 21%) in 2011.

Mexico Ag Min said Mexico imported about 9 MMT of yellow feed corn in 2012

Vietnam Food Association estimated 2nd quarter rice exports at 2.2 MMT vs. 1.45 MMT in the 1st quarter

Vietnam Food Association estimated Vietnam’s April rice exports at 800K

Vietnam Food Association raised 2013 rice export target to 8.0 MMT vs. previous target of 7.5-7.6 MMT

Dennis Gartman said in today’s Gartman letter (regarding US corn) “If we have even “reasonable” weather , given the acreage to be planted and given “normal” abandonment and yields we shall be looking at enormous surplus that argue for corn prices well into the $4 range , if not eventually lower.”

Minor support for May beans around 1353 ½ -1350 and major support for May beans at 1344 (January low)

Between Thursday March 28th and yesterday’s close May corn is down $1.05 and May beans are down 81 ¾ cents.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly report as of 4/04/13
• Argentine corn harvest is 24.3% complete vs. 17.3% a week ago
• Estimated ‘12/13 Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘11/12 crop of 21.5 MMT
• Argentine bean harvest is 9.1% complete
• Estimated ‘12/13 Argentine bean crop at 48.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
• Sunflower seed harvest is 89.1% complete vs. 82% a week ago
• Estimated ‘12/13 Argentine sunflower seed crop at 3.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘11/12 crop of 3.6 MMT

Argentine ‘12/13 grain and oilseed crop estimates from various sources
• Argentine Ag Min estimated the wheat crop at 9.0 MMT, the bean crop at 51.3 MMT, the corn crop at 25.7 MMT, and the sunflower seed crop at 3.1 MMT
• BAGE estimated the wheat crop at 9.8 MMT, the bean crop at 48.5 MMT, the corn crop at 25.0 MMT, and the sunflower seed crop at 3.3 MMT
• Rosario Grains Exchange estimated the wheat crop at 9.3 MMT, bean crop at 48.0 MMT , the corn crop at 25.3 MMT, and does not estimate the sunflower seed crop
• USDA estimated the wheat crop at 11.0 MMT, the bean crop at 51.5 MMT, the corn crop at 26.5 MMT, and the sunflower seed crop at 3.23 MMT

Open interest as of yesterday’s close
• CK 424,433 open, down 14,442
• Total corn 1,303,781 open, up 914
• SK 233,021 open, down 2,960
• Total beans 581,555 open, up 6,804
• SMK 115,831 open, down 2,796
• Total meal 270,449 open, up 1,658
• BOK 149,393 open, up 4,167
• Total bean oil 359,079 open, up 13,757
• WK 156,992 open, down 11,774
• Total wheat 441,731 open, down 463

Upcoming reports/events
• Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
• See attachment for new CBOT grain trading hours
• CME Group reduces CBOT grain and oilseed trading hours. The new hours will start Sunday April 7th. New hours are electronic 7 pm CST – 7:45 am CST (then a 45 minute pause) open outcry and electronic will begin trading at 830 am CST and trading will end at 1:15 pm CST. The mini contracts will trade electronically and in open outcry market until 1:45 pm CST
• Weekly US export inspections report comes out Monday at 10 am CST
• Weekly US crop progress report comes out Monday at 3 pm CST
• Conab Brazilian crop estimate report comes out on April 9th.
• Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out Wednesday April 10th with their March data report. Based on a Reuters survey of 5 analysts here are estimates for the March Malaysian Palm Oil data report
o March palm oil stocks average estimate 2.35 MMT (7 month low) vs. 2.44 MMT in February
o March palm oil production average estimate 1.28 MMT vs. 1.30 MMT in February
o March palm oil exports average estimate 1.34 MMT vs. 1.40 MMT in February
• Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s April 1st – 10th palm oil exports on Wednesday
• USDA supply and demand and crop progress report comes out on April 10th at 11 am CST
• NOPA March crush report comes out Monday April 15th at 11 am CST
• Stats Canada prospective plantings report comes out on April 24th

Thank you,

Kate Rosenberg