News From the Grain Floor 2/22/12

Good morning

 

May bean oil top step (spot month) this morning

 

Overnights

SH down 4 ¾ , SK down 4 ¾

CH down 2 ¼ , CK down 2

WH down 2 ¾ , WK down 1 ¾

SMH down .80

BOH down 19 , BOK down 19

RRH up 6.50

 

Overnight Volume

SH 9,205 , SK 5,726

CH 6,153 , CK 4,388

WH 2,154 , WK 3,767

SMH 3,321

BOH 7,827 , BOK 5,836

RRH 191

 

Early Calls

Beans 4-6 lower

Corn 1-2 lower

Wheat 2-4 lower

Meal .50-1 lower

Bean oil 10-20 lower

Rice 5-7 higher

 

Crude Gold Silver Stock Market lower. Dollar higher

 

Nikkei up .96%

Hang Seng up .33%

Shanghai index up .93%

 

China’s Feb HSBC PMI rose 49.7 vs. 48.8 in January

 

TALK Greece may need a 3rd bailout

 

Tensions in Iran continue

 

Palm oil down 18. Asian grain markets lower corn beans and meal higher oils

 

Good Chinese demand for palm oil

 

USDA reported 175K US beans sold to China for ‘12/13 delivery

 

Japan bought 1.8 M tons of US feed corn for April/June shipment – Japan buys about 3.3 M tons of feed corn every quarter

 

Taiwan bought 58K of Brazilian beans for March/April shipment

 

South Korea bought 7500 tons of beans from China, Canada , and the US for April shipment

 

Japan seeks 100K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for May shipment

 

Bangladesh seeks 50K optional origin wheat for March /April shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 50K optional origin soft wheat

 

20 oat receipts were canceled

 

US corn and bean basis firm yesterday – farmers are not selling

 

South Africa’s attaché estimated ‘12/13 corn plantings at 3 MH , estimated ‘12/13 corn crop at 11.4 M tons vs. 12.1 M a year ago, estimated corn exports at 1.5 M vs. 2.0 M a year ago

 

India’s government estimated the ‘11/12 wheat crop at 88.31 M (record) other officials estimate the crop at 90.0 M tons due to favorable weather

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘11/12 sunflower oil exports at 2.9 M vs. 2.65 M a year ago and estimated the ‘11/12 sunflower oil production at 3.45 M vs. 2.95 M in ‘10/11

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated the 2012 grain crop at 42-50 MMT vs. 56.7 M in 2011 and estimated the wheat crop at 15-16 MMT vs. 22.3 M in 2011

 

TALK Ukraine to limit wheat exports to 1.7 M for the remainder of the season – This has not been confirmed Ukraine Ag Min said there is no reason to limit exports

 

Ukraine corn exports to Japan delayed for at least 2 weeks due to severe weather. Japan bought 1.5 M tons of European origin (mostly Ukraine) corn for Jan/March shipment. About 400K tons has not been shipped yet

 

Russia’s Grain Union said 1-1.5 MH of grain area has been damage due to extremely cold temps. They estimated ‘12/13 wheat exports at 22 M unchanged from previous

 

Kazakhstan may only export 11 million tons of wheat in 2012 out of the 16 M they have to export due to a shortage of railcars

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated their 2012 grain crop at 13.15 M tons vs. 27 M in 2011

 

Freezing temps in Russia and the Ukraine delaying wheat shipment

 

Safras e Mercados weekly report from Friday

  • 19% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 12% a week ago and 11% 5 year average
  • 13.4% of Brazil’s main corn crop has been harvested vs. 14% a year ago

 

Oil World

  • Estimated Russia and the Ukraine’s sunflower seed crop at 17.5 – 19.0 M vs. 18.4 M in 2011
  • Oil World said global palm and bean oil prices are expected to rise in the coming months
  • Estimated Argentina’s 2012 bean crop at 47.0 M unchanged from previous and vs. 49.2 M in 2011
  • Estimated Brazil’s 2012 bean crop at 69.5 M unchanged from previous but they said they may cut this estimate soon vs. 75.3 M in 2011
  • Total South American bean crop expected to fall 12-13 M tons from a year ago

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • USDA outlook conference Thursday and Friday. US crop estimates from conference come out Friday – looking for Corn acreage at 94 MA and bean acreage at 74 MA
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out Friday

 

March options expire on Friday

Open interest

  • CH 620 calls – 7775
  • CH 630 calls – 6279
  • CH 640 calls – 11,008
  • CH 650 calls – 20,902
  • CH 620 puts – 10,035
  • CH 630 puts – 8277
  • CH 640 puts – 8043
  • CH 650 puts – 10557
  • SH 1250 calls – 5043
  • SH 1260 calls – 3088
  • SH 1280 calls – 3167
  • SH 1300 calls – 8469
  • SH 1250 puts – 1327
  • SH 1260 puts – 2733
  • SH 1280 puts 1371
  • SH 1300 puts 2348
  • SMH 320 calls 1400
  • SMH 330 calls 2355
  • SMH 320 puts 1050
  • SMH 330 puts 2630
  • BOH 53 calls 2617
  • BOH 54 calls 4530
  • BOH 53 puts 1880
  • BOH 54 puts 617
  • WH 620 calls 1738
  • WH 630 calls 2511
  • WH 640 calls 2594
  • WH 650 calls 5946
  • WH 620 puts 2412
  • WH 630 puts 3730
  • WH 640 puts 2843
  • WH 650 puts 4517

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg