News From the Grain Floor 01/26/12

Good morning

 

Overnights

SH up 9 ½

CH up 8 ¾

WH up 12 ¼

SMH up 2.80

BOH up 26

RRH up 20.50

 

Overnight Volume

SH 11,010

CH 19,132

WH 6,058

SMH 3,003

BOH 5,738

RRH 140

 

Early Calls

Beans 8-10 higher

Corn 8-10 higher

Wheat 10-12 higher

Meal 2-3 higher

Bean oil 20-40 higher

Rice 20-25 higher

 

Crude Gold Silver Stock market higher. Dollar lower

 

Nikkei down .39%

Hang Seng up 1.63%

 

Chinese markets closed for the remainder of the week

 

Dollar weaker due to Feds announcing yesterday that it will not raise interest rates until at least 2014.

 

Greek debt talks continue

 

Tensions in Iran continue

 

Weekly jobless claims report came out this morning at +21K expecting +23K

 

Palm oil down 38.

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-25 palm oil exports at 981,275 down 17% from December

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-25 palm oil exports at 947,401 tons down 20% from December

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board’s vice chairman estimated their 1st quarter palm oil production at 4.5 MMT

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Board’s vice chairman estimated Indonesia’s 2011 palm oil production at 24 MMT and estimated 2012 output at 25 MMT

 

TALK continues – Russia may curb exports

 

Ethiopia seeks 35K optional origin wheat for February shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 50K optional origin barley for March/April shipment

 

Drought in Mexico damaging corn crop. 2.8 Million acres are damaged

 

Extremely cold temperatures in Russia may damage crops

 

Dry weather in Argentina next 5 days. Rain in forecast next week and in extended forecast.

 

Brazil’s Parana state estimated their bean crop at 11.67 M vs. previous estimate of 12.7 M

 

Egypt’s GASC rejects 1 cargo of Kazakhstan wheat due to unauthorized seeds.

 

Egypt’s  GASC expects to buy 500K tons of wheat by June 30th

 

Thailand exported 527,348 tons of rice in December down 50% from a year ago due to high prices

 

Thailand exported 10.6 MMT of rice in 2011 (record) vs. 9.05 M in 2010

 

ProAgro Ukraine estimates

  • 2012 grain crop estimated at 40 M tons vs. 2011 record crop of 56.7 M tons
  • 2012 wheat crop estimated at 14 M vs. 22.3 M tons in 2011
  • Ukraine exported 775K tons of grain from Jan 1 – 25. (including 588,400 corn and 120K wheat )
  • Ukraine exported 2.18 M tons of grain in December vs. 2.29 M in November .
  • Ukraine’s Ag Min estimated ‘11/12 exports at 23 M

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘11/12 604,700 ‘12/13 14K (expecting 500-700K)
  • Corn ’11/12 958,100 ‘12/13 82,500 (expecting 650-850K)
  • Beans ‘11/12 466,300 ‘12/13 126K (expecting 700-850K)
  • Meal ‘11/12 124,200 ‘12/13 2,400 (expecting 100-200K)
  • Bean oil ‘11/12 2500 (expecting 5-15K)
  • Cotton ‘11/12 31,100

 

Export Highlights

  • Wheat ‘11/12 South Korea bought 196K , Mexico bought 126,800 Japan bought 85,700. Unknown canceled 97,300 Peru canceled 11,200. ‘12/13 Italy bought 9,000 Mexico bought 5,000
  • Corn ‘11/12 Japan bought 311,900, Mexico bought 264,100 , South Korea bought 186,600. Unknown destinations canceled 151,200 Dominican Republic canceled 10,500. ‘12/13 Mexico bought 45K and Japan bought 32,500
  • Beans ‘11/12 China bought 360,900 Mexico bought 143,500 Egypt bought 60K. Unknown canceled 258K Japan canceled 8,500 ‘12/13 China bought 120K and Japan bought 6K
  • Meal ‘11/12 Latvia bought 27,400 Spain bought 27K Mexico bought 22,300 . ‘12/13 Nicaragua bought 2500
  • Bean oil Mexico bought 1500 Nicaragua bought 1500 Canada canceled 500
  • Cotton Turkey bought 17,200 China bought 12,700 Mexico bought 7300 Thailand canceled 21,300 Bangladesh canceled 15,200

 

Upcoming Reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • February options expire tomorrow on the close

 

Thank you,

 

Kate Rosenberg